WNBA · Finalupdated 02:43 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

SEA expected to win by about 1 · both teams together expected to score about 181 points · odds to win: SEA 1.81, POR 2.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 23:26 UTC

SEA 93 – POR 100

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, POR = Portland Fire.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

C. Leite · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.65Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.88 · Our price was 7.6% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.66 by FanDuel (Fri 04:48 UTC); latest 1.92 at DraftKings (Sun 00:27 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying POR

Natisha Hiedeman · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 2 actual

Dominique Malonga · 28 min expected

points 18.5 → 21 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 8 actual

Awa Fam · 26 min expected

points 9.5 → 3 actual

Jade Melbourne · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 23 actual

Ezi Magbegor · 22 min expected

points 6.5 → 7 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Horston (15 expected minutes) · Cooke (13 min) · +2 more

Portland Fireplaying SEA

Bridget Carleton · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 24 actual

Carla Leite · 28 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 0 actual

Megan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

Emily Engstler · 23 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Frieda Buhner · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Nyadiew Puoch · 18 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (19 expected minutes) · Winterburn (13 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 02:43 UTC

Who is out

Barker · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 4, 30 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Out Oblak · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 11 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Holmes · did not play last game

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 01:15 UTC) · 2, 7 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Carleton · likely to play · right foot · POR

May not play K. Lou Samuelson (SEA) · right knee

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Samuelson, Dolson, Oblak, Harrison) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Puoch: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 26.7 in the last 5 games, about 8.7 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 39 days off before this game · POR had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 124 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Feagin out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Barker out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Oblak out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (Thu 01:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.88 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 7.6% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 00:52 UTC

Carla Leite · rebounds 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 3.8 min (28 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked · Result skewed by game events

11 other players with a posted line

Jade Melbourne · points 7.5 → 23 · 15.5 above the line · played 28.6 min (26 expected) · no final price

Natisha Hiedeman · points 16.5 → 2 · 14.5 below the line · played 31.9 min (32 expected) · no final price

Awa Fam · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 16.7 min (26 expected) · no final price

Frieda Buhner · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.1 min (18 expected) · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 24 · 8.5 above the line · played 28.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 8 · 6.5 below the line · played 24.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 24 min (28 expected) · no final price

Nyadiew Puoch · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.3 min (18 expected) · no final price

Dominique Malonga · points 18.5 → 21 · 2.5 above the line · played 27.9 min (28 expected) · no final price

Ezi Magbegor · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.9 min (22 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 24 min (23 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs SEA · last 4 games · POR leads · POR record 4–0 · average score 88.8–84.0 · POR has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

14 Aug · POR 84 at SEA 82POR won

8 Aug · SEA 93 at POR 100POR won

4 Jul · POR 77 at SEA 72POR won

17 Jun · SEA 89 at POR 94POR won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had POR expected to win by 2, expected total 181 (Sat 01:44 UTC) and later SEA expected to win by 1, expected total 181 (Sat 23:26 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Carla Leite · U 2.5 rebounds−113value_edge_pct +8.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Carla Leite Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.88ubet −113 → close −154 · CLV +7.6¢ · bet_clv:268443 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-08T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · actual 0 · 3.8 min · bench · excused

Data fetches · 54

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 51 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 62 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 65 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 114 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 165 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 173 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 191 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 91 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 219 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 250 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 260 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 536 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 294 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 313 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 318 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 580 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 900 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.