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PHO @ WAS — WNBA Picks & H2H — NightlyPicks

WNBA · FINAL · SUN, AUG 9, 3:00 PM

PHO @ WAS

Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics

← All WNBA games on 2026-08-09

-1.5

Spread (home)

168.5

Total

-108 / -118

Moneyline

Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:25 AM EDT

GAME BRIEF · START HERE

Start with what happened, then judge the process.

Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics is a completed-game review. Any call below is record-only.

REVIEW

01 · PROP DECISIONS

What the evidence says

6 of 6 prop cards have eligible recent or player-opponent history. Each card explains whether that context supports, opposes, or is too thin.

02 · AVAILABILITY

What could break it

4 hard availability flags returned (Kara Dunn, Shay Ciezki, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, …). Player-level observation times are unavailable, so verify the source report.

03 · MARKET MOVEMENT

What changed

39 unusual market lines: 19 above and 20 below players' typical closes. 2 signals withheld by availability or data-quality checks. Market movement is context, not an Over/Under pick.

MODEL UPDATES

The simple read.

What the model estimated, what changed, what was recorded alongside it, and whether an official bet exists.

HISTORICAL

PlayerStat

ViewingLAST CAPTURED FORECAST · FINAL STATUS UNVERIFIEDCheckpoint history · roster completeness not verified

PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

Five things to know

R4 OF 4

01 · WHAT WE THINKLast saved pretip estimate: Shakira Austin at about 19.1 points with 32 projected minutes.

The model expected Shakira Austin to come off the bench in the projected lineup and with availability not yet confirmed. This is an estimate, not a promised result. The saved minutes range is 28.5–35.6. Some forecast inputs remain uncertain.

02 · WHAT CHANGEDShakira Austin's points estimate stayed the same.

The selected player's expected minutes, lineup state, availability, and estimate stayed the same.

03 · WHAT WE OBSERVEDNo player-level reason was recorded.

The page will not invent a cause that is not in the saved revision.

04 · BET STATUSHistorical record only — no current bet.

The record is retained for audit and grading, not as a live recommendation.

05 · WHAT TO WATCH NEXTOfficial player result check is unavailable.

A separate official betting record may already be settled, but that does not score this forecast. No finalized player result is connected after the correction window, so forecast accuracy is withheld.

DECISION TIMELINE · IMMUTABLE RESEARCH REVISIONS

See how the read moved.

Follow each frozen checkpoint, inspect what the system knew, and compare any two revisions. Connectors report observed differences—not invented causality.

Full reasoning · always visible

PlayerStat

4 frozen revisionsMarket-selected players · full roster not attested

→

2 stored field changesObserved difference only

→

1 stored field changesObserved difference only

→

forecast assumptions / warnings changedmatchup / context drivers changedObserved difference only

OFFICIAL FORMULA LANErecord_only · OVER 18.5+115 · not_applicable

The stored formula record is shown beside the research history, not as an output caused by it.

SELECTED REVISION · R4 · T−15M

Shakira Austin · Points

2:36 PM EDT

01 · EVIDENCEUNKNOWNrotation role · 0 absence context rows

→OBSERVED ORDER

02 · LINEUPPROJECTEDrecorded bench

→SAME PLAYER STATE

03 · MINUTES INPUT32.0 MIN28.5–35.6 · recent-games

→PARTIALLY ATTESTED

04 · STAT FORECAST19.1 POINTSP10 10.0 · P50 18.0 · P90 30.0

→FORECAST FROZEN FIRST

05 · MARKETNO MARKETforecast remains market-free at this checkpoint

→COMPARISON ONLY

06 · OUTPUTFORECAST ONLYresearch comparison · not a betting call

Applied numerically

No additional numeric contribution is attested beyond the recorded forecast inputs.

Context only / not causally linked

matchupOpponent team-defense context: suppression index threes -1.90, scoring +0.37, rebounds +0.26; allows 87.2 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast.
matchupHistorical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

Warnings & assumptions

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because lineup source has not confirmed the starting five.
Rejected upstream minutes projection because market_free=true attestation is missing; using recent-games fallback.
Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible.
Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown.
sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600240: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1631022/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1631022: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred.
Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.
Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes.
Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws.
No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

COMPARE REVISIONS

What changed between two frozen reads?

A · Earlier→B · Later

FieldA · EarlierChangeB · Later

ForecastWarningsCONTEXT

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because lineup source has not confirmed the starting five. · Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible. · Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown. · sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600240: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1631022/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1631022: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · projections-engine minutes/wnba/2026-08-09/1022600240: network · WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred. · Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.changedConfirmed lineup receipt was rejected because lineup source has not confirmed the starting five. · Rejected upstream minutes projection because market_free=true attestation is missing; using recent-games fallback. · Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible. · Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown. · sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600240: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1631022/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1631022: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred. · Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.

ContextDriversCONTEXT

matchup: neutral · Opponent team-defense context: suppression index threes -1.93, scoring +0.36, rebounds +0.26; allows 87.2 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast. · matchup: unknown · Historical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.changedmatchup: neutral · Opponent team-defense context: suppression index threes -1.90, scoring +0.37, rebounds +0.26; allows 87.2 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast. · matchup: unknown · Historical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

ProvenanceSnapshot

ds_9622a7fc10c45fd3ad34deb9changedds_7797b54465cadb3a46064b9e

ProvenanceDecision clock

2:50 PM EDTchanged2:36 PM EDT

23 unchanged fields

Lineup & availabilityCapture status

captured—captured

Lineup & availabilityLineup

projected—projected

Lineup & availabilityStarter

bench—bench

Lineup & availabilityAvailability

unknown—unknown

Lineup & availabilityRole

rotation—rotation

Lineup & availabilityRole-change magnitude

none—none

Lineup & availabilityTeammate absences

none recorded—none recorded

Lineup & availabilityRole-change reasons

none recorded—none recorded

MinutesExpected minutes

32.0—32.0

MinutesRange

28.5–35.6—28.5–35.6

MinutesSource

recent-games—recent-games

OpportunityCaptured opportunity

field goal attempts 14.8 · free throw attempts 7.3 · three point attempts 1.7—field goal attempts 14.8 · free throw attempts 7.3 · three point attempts 1.7

ForecastPoints mean

19.1—19.1

ForecastInput lineage

partially attested—partially attested

ForecastAssumptions

Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes. · Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws. · No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.—Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes. · Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws. · No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

ForecastP10 / P50 / P90

10.0 / 18.0 / 30.0—10.0 / 18.0 / 30.0

MarketOffer

NO MARKET CAPTURE—NO MARKET CAPTURE

MarketLean

———

MarketApplied market reasoning

———

MarketContext-only market reasoning

———

MarketP(over) / P(under)

———

ProvenanceRevision triggers

checkpoint capture—checkpoint capture

ProvenanceModel artifact

f3319519…267e—f3319519…267e

DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW

Loading frozen research checkpoints…

HISTORICAL FORMULA FEED · AUDIT ONLY

Results & Recorded Calls · 6 qualified

Start with the verified result and flat-1u CORE benchmark P&L. Then compare the recorded call with the evidence that can be reconstructed without using this game's outcome.

FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK

WIN

Actual: 19 vs 18.5
Flat-1u P&L: +1.15u
CLV: +4.0¢
Minutes: 25.8

Postgame context: Austin's efficient 8-16 shooting (50% FG) combined with a team-leading 30% usage rate in 26 minutes was enough to push her just over the 18.5 line, despite a quiet three-point game (1-3). Her +27 rating reflected a dominant performance in a blowout win where she got opportunities early and often.

SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · POINTS

Shakira Austin O 18.5 PTS +115

Persisted decision price · 0.7u model stake · bet_clv:270846

RECORD ONLY

Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.

PROP BRIEF · START HERE

Review the recorded result—not a current play.

What the evidence saysThe context is split

Recent games · Last 5 no sample; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent supports. Do not turn correlated or conflicting history into extra confidence.

Main riskWhat could break the read

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.

Next stepReview the process

Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.

Verified receipt & source timing

Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:270846 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0 · capture bucket Aug 8, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified

DECISION LAB · MODEL RECORD + YOUR READ

Challenge what the system knew.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Shakira Austin

OVER 18.5 · Points

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE+115book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE47.9%break-even 46.5% · EV +3.0%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 18.5 · stake 0.65u

Formula: priced_lineedges
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

HINDSIGHT MODEYou can test assumptions, but this page cannot save or alter a pregame read after the authoritative tip time. Browser timestamps are a convenience, not independent proof of publication.

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 18.547.9% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 18.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

ISOLATED-PLAYER SENSITIVITYMoving one player's minutes here does not conserve the team's 200 regulation minutes. Name whose minutes or role you think changes so the assumption stays basketball-real.

Starting-role beliefRecorded label: unknown. This label does not secretly add minutes.Expected minutes —Model: — · regulation maximum 40Opportunity / usage change +0%Use for role, touches, shot volume, rebound chances, or potential assists.Matchup adjustment +0.0Direct points added to or removed from the make.Pace / game-script adjustment +0.0Direct points added to or removed from the make for pace, blowout, overtime tail, or foul-risk beliefs.

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 18.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

Gameplay mean × (your minutes ÷ model minutes) × (1 + your opportunity change) + your matchup adjustment + your pace/game-script adjustment. It is a sensitivity tool, not a retrained probability, and it does not claim the CORE formula uses these inputs.

DECISION LAB

Loading the immutable evidence map…

AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT · AUDIT CONTEXT

Availability & Injuries

4 hard availability snapshot flags appear. Player-level observation time is unavailable, so this does not prove the status existed before tip; formula rows remain record-only.

PHOKara Dunn · Coach'sDecision-DevelopmentalPlayerOUT

PHOShay Ciezki · Coach'sDecision-DevelopmentalPlayerOUT

WASBetnijah Laney-Hamilton · PersonalReasonsOUT

WASDarianna Littlepage-Buggs · Coach'sDecisionOUT

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

BUILDING

The first frozen read has not posted for this game yet. We publish a checkpointed snapshot before tip instead of inventing a live answer from incomplete inputs.

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…

MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−1H

Prop Watchlist

A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.

Showing 2 of 39 all props market observations

44props checked

2top observations shown now

0Out / Doubtful / Inactive watches hidden

T−1Hlatest locked check

How these market observations are calculated

Typical market close is the median closing line across all earlier verified games this season—not a scoring average or a fixed 30-game window. Recent results use up to five actual-backed games that were final at least six hours before this checkpoint, so a just-finished game may be intentionally excluded. These are descriptive observations, not win probabilities or automatic picks.

Market expectation up

Upward descriptive pattern—not an Over pick

Expectation upPTS · market observation—not a pick

Shakira Austin

WAS · C · vs PHO

17.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 14.5
Market vs typical: +3.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: +10.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Formula-qualified card: Over 18.5 PTS. This research watch captured 17.5 at T−1H. They are different numbers, so do not read this watch as a verdict on the formula card.

Market + recent results align

This game's PTS line is 17.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 14.5 across 24 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 10.5 above their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 7 · 21.0 actual vs 17.5 line (+3.5)

Possible context: Betnijah Laney-Hamilton — Out (reported Aug 9, 2:00 PM EDT); Darianna Littlepage-Buggs — Available (reported Aug 6, 5:00 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Market expectation down

Downward descriptive pattern—not an Under pick

Expectation downPTS · market observation—not a pick

Michaela Onyenwere

WAS · F · vs PHO

7.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 9.5
Market vs typical: −2.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: −3.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Market + recent results align

This game's PTS line is 7.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 9.5 across 21 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 3.5 below their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 7 · 0.0 actual vs 8.5 line (−8.5)

Showing the clearest market observations for available players—not additional bets.Open the season tape →

The Read

No authored matchup analysis is available in the connected archive for this game.

Team Series History

WAS vs PHO · last 16 meetings · WAS leads

Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.

8–8

WAS record

82.6–79.3

Avg score (home)

+3.3

Avg margin

35.3

Avg reb

RECENT MEETINGS

08/27WAS 80 @ PHO 73WWAS

08/25WAS 94 @ PHO 84WWAS

08/09PHO 75 @ WAS 95WWAS

09/04PHO 75 @ WAS 69LWAS

See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players

L3: —
L5: —
L10: —

Player vs opponentFinished above 18.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs PHO

Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:25 AM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.

DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE

How comparable bigs fared vs PHO

Descriptive · not another model vote

3/5 aboveClosest 5 peers · median finish 2.5 above market

All Points props vs PHO: 75/147 below
Same position family: 31/55 below

These are market-relative results, not raw points allowed: every peer is judged against the line offered for that peer's own game. The 5 shown are selected by position family and usual line; the opponent result is not used to rank them.

See the 5 comparable players

One latest eligible meeting per peer, strictly before Aug 9. “Usual” is that player's trailing median closing line, not the result against PHO.
Player	Why comparable	Date	Own close	Actual	Finish	Minutes
Aliyah Boston C	usual 16.5 over 10 games · Δ 2.0 · 28.9 min	Jul 9	17.5	21.0	3.5 above market	37.5
Nneka Ogwumike PF	usual 17.5 over 10 games · Δ 1.0 · 30.8 min	Jul 22	17.5	13.0	4.5 below market	30.3
Dominique Malonga PF	usual 16.5 over 10 games · Δ 2.0 · 27.9 min	Jul 2	18.0	5.0	13.0 below market	20.8
Jonquel Jones C	usual 14.5 over 10 games · Δ 4.0 · 28.9 min	Aug 1	13.5	16.0	2.5 above market	27.7
Kamilla Cardoso C	usual 14.5 over 10 games · Δ 4.0 · 25.8 min	Aug 3	13.5	16.0	2.5 above market	27.7

Open evidence game log

HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK

Against each game's own verified close

Normal exposure only

Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…

Player history vs PHO

Latest 5 of 7 eligible meetings · finished above 18.5 in 1/5 · average 11.4. Context only; roles and schemes change.

Date	Actual	Minutes	OVER 18.5
Sep 4	15.0	27.2	Miss
Jul 27	20.0	27.5	Hit
May 23	11.0	20.1	Miss
Jun 16	6.0	8.7	Miss
Jul 14	5.0	13.5	Miss

See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks

The six items are pillars, not six yes/no questions. Each check below is evidence—not a gamified score. One hard failure can outweigh many verified inputs.

1 · Price & market value

Caution

What exact side, line, odds, and book are offered?

Shakira Austin OVER 18.5 +115 · sportsbook unavailable

Source · canonical grading decision receipt

Caution

When was the formula price captured?

Capture bucket Aug 8, 8:00 PM EDT (storage bucket, not decision time) · decision time unavailable · quote observation unavailable

Source · bet_clv:270846

Verified

What hit rate does the price require?

46.5%

Source · derived from formula-feed American odds

Verified

What is the calibrated probability at this line?

47.9%

Source · canonical decision model.calibrated_hit_probability

Verified

What is the probability-point edge?

+1.4pp

Source · p_hit minus formula-price break-even

Verified

What is expected profit per unit?

+3.0%

Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)

N/A

Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?

Mutable latest-market rows are intentionally excluded from historical pre-tip proof

Unavailable

What price or line turns this into a pass?

Server-authoritative playable boundaries are not published yet

N/A

Does the broader market agree?

Mutable latest-market rows are not used to reconstruct historical consensus

Unavailable

Is the market liquid enough?

Limits and liquidity are not connected

2 · Projection quality & uncertainty

Unavailable

What is the projected median?

Unavailable

What does the outcome distribution look like?

Distribution unavailable

Unavailable

How sensitive is the pick to minutes, usage, or pace?

Sensitivity model unavailable

Caution

What do L3, L5, and L10 show at this exact line?

L3 unavailable · L5 unavailable · L10 unavailable at the formula OVER 18.5 line

Source · reconstructed hydrator game history; target/same/future dates excluded

Caution

Is the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?

The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here

Unavailable

Was calibration measured out of sample?

Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick

Unavailable

How large is the comparable historical sample?

No eligible reconstructed L10 sample

Unavailable

When did the model run and were inputs complete?

Research run timestamp unavailable

Source · Gameplay Intelligence

3 · Availability & role

Unavailable

Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?

No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved

Source · player-state service

Caution

When was status last verified?

Snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:25 AM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped

Source · data-hydrator snapshot assembly

Unavailable

What is the expected minutes range?

Minutes projection unavailable

Unavailable

Is the player starting or restricted?

Starter and restriction status unavailable

Unavailable

Has opportunity changed?

Opportunity feed unavailable

Unavailable

Which teammate absences change the role?

No confirmed teammate-absence attribution returned

Unavailable

Were injury-shortened games identified?

The joined outcome does not include a verified abnormal-exposure flag

Unavailable

What rotation change could invalidate the projection?

No material role change returned

4 · Game environment & matchup

Unavailable

How many possessions are expected?

A game-level pace projection is not exposed on this card

Caution

What do spread and total imply?

Spread (home) -1.5 · Total 168.5 · Moneyline -108 / -118 · archive context only; not an immutable pre-tip market receipt · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:25 AM EDT

Source · data-hydrator assembled game-market snapshot

Unavailable

Does opponent scheme affect this stat?

No stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Caution

What has this player done against this opponent?

Finished above 18.5 in 1/5 prior player meetings vs PHO

Source · reconstructed player-vs-team game history; target date excluded

Unavailable

Which defender or lineup matters?

Defender attribution is not exposed

Unavailable

Is rest, travel, or schedule a disadvantage?

Rest and travel context are not connected

Caution

What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?

Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified

5 · Execution & portfolio risk

N/A

Is the number still inside its playable boundary?

Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof

Verified

How was stake size derived?

0.7u model-sized stake

Source · canonical decision model.kelly_stake_units

Unavailable

How much correlated exposure already exists?

Player, game, and injury-thesis exposure are not connected

Unavailable

Are exposure limits respected?

Daily, league, player, and prop limits are not exposed

Caution

What event withdraws or expires the pick?

Game start and hard availability conflicts are enforced; price boundaries remain a backend gap

Caution

Is this pregame, live, or halftime analysis?

Schedule status: final · formula-feed archive context

Caution

Is there a no-chase rule?

The UI expires the card after tip and requires exact-line verification; explicit price-bound enforcement is pending

6 · Outcome evidence & accountability

Verified

Did the pick beat the comparable close?

+4.0¢ closing-line value (price CLV)

Source · joined grading settlement

Verified

Was the formula line stored immutably?

OVER 18.5 · decision key pd_e9fad58bbc4252426f82d8b5 · receipt bet_clv:270846 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0

Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1

Verified

Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?

Austin's efficient 8-16 shooting (50% FG) combined with a team-leading 30% usage rate in 26 minutes was enough to push her just over the 18.5 line, despite a quiet three-point game (1-3). Her +27 rating reflected a dominant performance in a blowout win where she got opportunities early and often.

Source · joined outcome receipt

Verified

What are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?

This pick's flat-1u CORE result is +1.15u. Personal staking remains separate.

Source · joined grading ledger

Unavailable

What are sample size and uncertainty interval?

Per-cohort confidence interval is not exposed on the card

Unavailable

Are probabilities calibrated by Brier or log loss?

Per-cohort calibration metrics are not exposed

Unavailable

Where is performance weakening?

League/prop/price/book/time-to-tip drift is not joined here

Unavailable

What are drawdown and losing-streak behavior?

Portfolio drawdown belongs to the ledger and is not connected to this pick

Unavailable

Is the edge persisting in new data?

DECISION LAB · MODEL RECORD + YOUR READ

Challenge what the system knew.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Shakira Austin

OVER 18.5 · Points

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE+115book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE47.9%break-even 46.5% · EV +3.0%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 18.5 · stake 0.65u

Formula: priced_lineedges
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 18.547.9% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 18.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 18.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

MODEL UPDATES

The simple read.

What the model estimated, what changed, what was recorded alongside it, and whether an official bet exists.

HISTORICAL

PlayerStat

ViewingLAST CAPTURED FORECAST · FINAL STATUS UNVERIFIEDCheckpoint history · roster completeness not verified

PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

Five things to know

R4 OF 4

01 · WHAT WE THINKLast saved pretip estimate: Shakira Austin at about 19.1 points with 32 projected minutes.

02 · WHAT CHANGEDShakira Austin's points estimate stayed the same.

The selected player's expected minutes, lineup state, availability, and estimate stayed the same.

03 · WHAT WE OBSERVEDNo player-level reason was recorded.

The page will not invent a cause that is not in the saved revision.

04 · BET STATUSHistorical record only — no current bet.

The record is retained for audit and grading, not as a live recommendation.

05 · WHAT TO WATCH NEXTOfficial player result check is unavailable.

DECISION TIMELINE · IMMUTABLE RESEARCH REVISIONS

See how the read moved.

Follow each frozen checkpoint, inspect what the system knew, and compare any two revisions. Connectors report observed differences—not invented causality.

Full reasoning · always visible

PlayerStat

4 frozen revisionsMarket-selected players · full roster not attested

→

2 stored field changesObserved difference only

→

1 stored field changesObserved difference only

→

forecast assumptions / warnings changedmatchup / context drivers changedObserved difference only

OFFICIAL FORMULA LANErecord_only · OVER 18.5+115 · not_applicable

The stored formula record is shown beside the research history, not as an output caused by it.

SELECTED REVISION · R4 · T−15M

Shakira Austin · Points

2:36 PM EDT

01 · EVIDENCEUNKNOWNrotation role · 0 absence context rows

→OBSERVED ORDER

02 · LINEUPPROJECTEDrecorded bench

→SAME PLAYER STATE

03 · MINUTES INPUT32.0 MIN28.5–35.6 · recent-games

→PARTIALLY ATTESTED

04 · STAT FORECAST19.1 POINTSP10 10.0 · P50 18.0 · P90 30.0

→FORECAST FROZEN FIRST

05 · MARKETNO MARKETforecast remains market-free at this checkpoint

→COMPARISON ONLY

06 · OUTPUTFORECAST ONLYresearch comparison · not a betting call

Applied numerically

No additional numeric contribution is attested beyond the recorded forecast inputs.

Context only / not causally linked

matchupOpponent team-defense context: suppression index threes -1.90, scoring +0.37, rebounds +0.26; allows 87.2 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast.
matchupHistorical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability.

Warnings & assumptions

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because lineup source has not confirmed the starting five.
Rejected upstream minutes projection because market_free=true attestation is missing; using recent-games fallback.
Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible.
Strategy selection is ineligible because player availability is unknown.
sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600240: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1631022/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1631022: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"}
WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred.
Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection; availability is unknown. Any generated distribution is research-only.
Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes.
Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws.
No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.

COMPARE REVISIONS

What changed between two frozen reads?

A · Earlier→B · Later

FieldA · EarlierChangeB · Later

ForecastWarningsCONTEXT

ContextDriversCONTEXT

ProvenanceSnapshot

ds_9622a7fc10c45fd3ad34deb9changedds_7797b54465cadb3a46064b9e

ProvenanceDecision clock

2:50 PM EDTchanged2:36 PM EDT

23 unchanged fields

Lineup & availabilityCapture status

captured—captured

Lineup & availabilityLineup

projected—projected

Lineup & availabilityStarter

bench—bench

Lineup & availabilityAvailability

unknown—unknown

Lineup & availabilityRole

rotation—rotation

Lineup & availabilityRole-change magnitude

none—none

Lineup & availabilityTeammate absences

none recorded—none recorded

Lineup & availabilityRole-change reasons

none recorded—none recorded

MinutesExpected minutes

32.0—32.0

MinutesRange

28.5–35.6—28.5–35.6

MinutesSource

recent-games—recent-games

OpportunityCaptured opportunity

field goal attempts 14.8 · free throw attempts 7.3 · three point attempts 1.7—field goal attempts 14.8 · free throw attempts 7.3 · three point attempts 1.7

ForecastPoints mean

19.1—19.1

ForecastInput lineage

partially attested—partially attested

ForecastAssumptions

ForecastP10 / P50 / P90

10.0 / 18.0 / 30.0—10.0 / 18.0 / 30.0

MarketOffer

NO MARKET CAPTURE—NO MARKET CAPTURE

MarketLean

———

MarketApplied market reasoning

———

MarketContext-only market reasoning

———

MarketP(over) / P(under)

———

ProvenanceRevision triggers

checkpoint capture—checkpoint capture

ProvenanceModel artifact

f3319519…267e—f3319519…267e