WNBA · Finalupdated 10:16 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

CHI expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 178.5 points · odds to win: CHI 1.71, SEA 2.20

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 00:42 UTC

CHI 88 – SEA 97

Final · 2 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 2 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Fam · Under 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.94Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was 1.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.80 by FanDuel (Mon 16:39 UTC); latest 1.80 at BetOnline.ag (Tue 01:43 UTC). The line moved from 8.5 to 10.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

D. Malonga · Over 9.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.95 · last price before start 1.94Won +0.95 per 1 staked

C. Vandersloot · Under 11.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying SEA

SNatasha Cloud · 31 min expected

points 12.5 → 7 actual

SAzura Stevens · 30 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 13 actual

SJacy Sheldon · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 15 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coulibaly (16 expected minutes) · Williams (15 min) · +2 more

Seattle Stormplaying CHI

SNatisha Hiedeman · 33 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SJade Melbourne · 29 min expected

points 9.5 → 9 actual

SDominique Malonga · 28 min expected

rebounds 9.5 → 10 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Awa Fam · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 0 actual

Flau'jae Johnson · Out · left ankle

points 13.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Horston (27 expected minutes) · Cooke (17 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 10:16 UTC

Who is out

Johnson · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Thu 01:30 UTC) · 35, 32 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Out Samuelson · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 17, 25 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Holmes · did not play last game

Out Mair · earlier listed as available (changed 01:15 UTC) · 5, 2 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 14, 9 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Taylor · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 22:15 UTC) · 25, 23 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

5 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Williams, Jaquez) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Sheldon: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 19.5 in the last 5 games, about 8.5 more than usual

Cloud: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Stevens: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 23.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Magbegor: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 25.5 in the last 5 games, about 5.5 fewer than usual

Melbourne: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 21.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 23 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Johnson out (Thu 01:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Samuelson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Holmes out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mair out (01:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Taylor out (Thu 22:15 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 3 picks won2 won, 1 lost · +0.93 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.4% higher than the last before the start · 7 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Thu 02:52 UTC

Awa Fam · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Courtney Vandersloot · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 26 min (28 expected)

Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.74 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Dominique Malonga · rebounds 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.95 → Won +0.95 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Natasha Cloud · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 31.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Jacy Sheldon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.9 min (28 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.02

Ezi Magbegor · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 26.3 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.12

Azura Stevens · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.2 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Natisha Hiedeman · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 33.3 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.92

Jade Melbourne · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 21 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 2.07

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.9 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Flau'jae Johnson · points 13.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs CHI · last 16 games · SEA leads · SEA record 9–7 · average score 85.1–81.9 · SEA has won by 3.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

16 Aug · CHI 82 at SEA 80SEA lost

10 Aug · CHI 88 at SEA 97SEA won

15 Jul · SEA 90 at CHI 95SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.4 points · 37.0 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.8% of shots · 33.5% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.4 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.3 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.1+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 1, expected total 181.5 (Sun 23:19 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 2.5, expected total 178.5 (Tue 00:42 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Awa Fam · U 9.5 points−102value_edge_pct −0.58 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Dominique Malonga · O 9.5 rebounds−105value_edge_pct −3.61 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Awa Fam · U 10.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.88 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Courtney Vandersloot · U 11.5 points−135value_edge_pct −5.07 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Courtney Vandersloot Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −135 → close −135 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:287490 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · unexplained · actual 13 · 26.0 min · startedVandersloot's free-throw volume was the culprit: she attempted 9 FTs (compared to just 7 field goals) and made 8 of them, accounting for 62% of her scoring and lifting her past 11.5 despite shooting just 29% from the field. Her 26 minutes and 20% usage were in line with an under-type game, but the stripe-heavy scoring path created the miss.

Courtney Vandersloot Under 6.5 ASTWIN +0.63ubet −158 → close −160 · CLV +0.3¢ · bet_clv:287489 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 3 · 26.0 min · startedVandersloot's playmaking was bottled up despite 26 minutes of work, recording just 3 assists on limited offensive flow and a -12 rating that reflected her team's struggles in the loss. Her 20% usage rate and ball-dominant role constraints limited her opportunities to generate helpers.

Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REBWIN +0.68ubet −146 → close −152 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:287486 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.7% · actual 10 · 29.8 min · startedMalonga cleared the number with efficient inside play, grabbing 10 rebounds on 30 minutes while posting a team-high 26 points on 64% shooting—her volume and floor time were enough to secure the boards despite modest usage at 26%.

Dominique Malonga Over 9.5 REBWIN +0.95ubet −105 → close −106 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:287487 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · actual 10 · 29.8 min · startedMalonga cleared the bar with efficient rebounding work, grabbing 10 boards in 30 minutes while posting a team-leading 76% true shooting on high volume; her zero fouls allowed her to stay on the floor and attack the glass throughout.

Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.62ubet −162 → close −162 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:287488 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.1% · actual 1 · 29.8 min · startedMalonga recorded just 1 assist despite 30 minutes and dominant scoring (26 pts on 64% FG), as her role remained volume-focused rather than playmaking-oriented in the offense. Her 2 turnovers and low assist rate reflected a ball-dominant usage pattern prioritizing her own shot over ball movement.

Awa Fam Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −106 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:289266 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 0 · 13.7 min · benchFam was held scoreless on 3 field-goal attempts in 14 minutes of action, staying well under the 9.5-point line despite getting on the court early. Her minimal usage rate (12%) and inability to convert any shot attempts made the under an easy cash.

Awa Fam Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −117 · CLV −2.6¢ · bet_clv:289265 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · actual 0 · 13.7 min · benchFam went scoreless on 3 field goal attempts in 14 minutes of play, unable to convert from the field or free throw line despite getting on the court. Her 12% usage rate and 0% true shooting sealed a decisive hit on the under.

Data fetches · 50

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 119 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 159 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 163 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 206 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 205 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 367 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 409 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 685 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 686 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 916 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1127 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 954 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1070 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1122 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1124 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1152 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1171 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1184 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1188 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.