WNBA · Finalupdated 10:16 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 15.5 · both teams together expected to score about 187.5 points · odds to win: TOR 7.94, ATL 1.10

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 22:41 UTC

TOR 95 – ATL 107

Final · 1 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 1 won, 4 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Sabally · Over 14.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.20 · last price before start 1.91Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.20 · Our price was 6.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.84 by Pinnacle (Mon 05:23 UTC); latest 1.87 at Pinnacle (Mon 23:42 UTC). The 13.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 2.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

R. Howard · Under 17.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

B. Jones · Under 10.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.91 · last price before start 1.81Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

N. Sabally · Over 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.86 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.86 per 1 staked

B. Jones · Over 5.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying ATL

SJulie Allemand · 30 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

SMarina Mabrey · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 36 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 0 actual

SMaria Conde · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 2 actual

SNyara Sabally · 20 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 12 actual

Aneesah Morrow · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 11 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Rice (22 expected minutes) · Harrison (14 min) · +3 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying TOR

SAllisha Gray · 35 min expected

points 18.5 → 15 actual

SRhyne Howard · 35 min expected

points 17.5 → 22 actual

SAngel Reese · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 20 actual

SJordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 20 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

Brionna Jones · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 15 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Borlase (12 expected minutes) · Okot (5 min) · Kone (2 min)

What could go wrong

updated 10:16 UTC

Who is out

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Paopao · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sun 20:30 UTC) · 13, 7 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Bankole · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 22:00 UTC) · 20, 14 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Key · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Sabally, Conde, Hillmon, Jones) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Allemand: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.8 in the last 5 games, about 5.2 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

ATL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 26 of the 133 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Paopao out (Sun 20:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bankole out (Tue 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Key out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 5 picks won1 won, 4 lost · −3.14 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.3% higher than the last before the start · 11 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked Thu 00:52 UTC

Nyara Sabally · rebounds 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.86 → Won +0.86 per 1 staked

Brionna Jones · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 19.6 min (24 expected)

Pick: Under 10.5 at 1.91 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 22 · 4.5 above the line · played 36.1 min (35 expected)

Pick: Under 17.5 at 1.93 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

9 other players with a posted line

Marina Mabrey · points 16.5 → 36 · 19.5 above the line · played 32.9 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 0 · 9.5 below the line · played 13.5 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 20 · 9.5 above the line · played 36.2 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Maria Conde · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.76

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.73

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.9 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 20 · 4.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.93

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 15 · 3.5 below the line · played 32.6 min (35 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Aneesah Morrow · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 16.3 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs TOR · last 4 games · ATL leads · ATL record 4–0 · average score 103.5–87.8 · ATL has won by 15.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

10 Aug · TOR 95 at ATL 107ATL won

17 Jul · ATL 111 at TOR 92ATL won

22 Jun · TOR 87 at ATL 94ATL won

14 Jun · ATL 102 at TOR 77ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.3 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.7 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.3 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.1−2.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 12, expected total 184.5 (Sun 22:49 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 15.5, expected total 187.5 (Mon 22:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 7

Nyara Sabally · O 14.5 points+120value_edge_pct +10.96 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Nyara Sabally · O 4.5 rebounds−116value_edge_pct −0.33 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Nyara Sabally · O 12.5 points−114value_edge_pct −1.27 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Nyara Sabally · O 13.5 points−107value_edge_pct −1.43 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Brionna Jones · O 5.5 rebounds−132value_edge_pct −2.34 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Brionna Jones · U 10.5 points−110value_edge_pct −2.73 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Rhyne Howard · U 17.5 points−108value_edge_pct −2.86 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 11

Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −108 → close −107 · CLV −0.2¢ · bet_clv:286726 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · bad_price · actual 22 · 36.1 min · startedHoward torched the under by draining 6-of-11 from three (54.5%), well above her typical volume and efficiency from deep, while playing all 36 minutes and maintaining elite efficiency at 66% TS despite modest 20% usage.

Nyara Sabally Over 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 → close −110 · CLV +6.9¢ · bet_clv:286731 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 29.1 min · startedSabally's below-the-line scoring was driven by poor shooting efficiency—she went 5-12 from the field (42%) despite 29 minutes and solid usage at 26%—and couldn't compensate with free throws, attempting only 2 all game. Her two-point performance shortfall came almost entirely from inefficient shot selection rather than playing time constraints.

Nyara Sabally Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −107 → close −115 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:286730 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 29.1 min · startedSabally fell just short despite solid volume, shooting 5-12 from the field for a 41.7% clip that wasn't enough to push her over 13.5 in 29 minutes of play. Her 26% usage rate and 47% true shooting kept her in the 12-point range despite the rebounding (12) and steals (4) contributions.

Nyara Sabally Over 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −114 → close −127 · CLV +2.7¢ · bet_clv:286729 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 12 · 29.1 min · startedSabally fell one point short despite solid volume, shooting just 5-12 from the field (42 FG%) and missing all four three-point attempts in 29 minutes. Her 26% usage rate and modest 47% true shooting kept her at exactly the line threshold rather than pushing past it.

Allisha Gray Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −144 → close −144 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:286728 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · unexplained · actual 5 · 32.6 min · startedGray doubled her assist projection by operating as a primary facilitator in a 33-minute, high-efficiency outing, racking up 5 dimes on just 13% usage—a sign she was getting high-quality looks to kick out rather than hunting shots herself. The under missed because her playmaking role was elevated relative to the betting line's expectation, not due to volume or a blowout inflating numbers.

Jordin Canada Over 6.5 ASTWIN +0.68ubet −146 → close −152 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:286724 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · actual 9 · 36.2 min · started

Aneesah Morrow Under 7.5 REBWIN +0.53ubet −189 → close −140 · CLV −7.1¢ · bet_clv:286727 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.4% · actual 1 · 16.3 min · benchMorrow's under 7.5 rebounds cashed easily as she grabbed just 1 board in 16 minutes—her limited floor time and 3 personal fouls (risk of foul trouble) combined to keep her off the glass despite respectable scoring efficiency on 28% usage.

Maria Conde Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −163 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:286725 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 27.9 min · startedConde played 28 minutes but recorded just 1 rebound despite 8% usage, failing to crash the glass effectively or generate second-chance opportunities in a blowout loss (-17 +/-). Her minimal involvement in the offense and rebounding effort made the over difficult to hit even with substantial playing time.

Brionna Jones Over 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −132 → close −136 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:286723 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 19.6 min · benchJones shot an efficient 5-for-5 from the field but played just 20 minutes and grabbed only 3 rebounds, held down by foul trouble (4 PF) that limited her opportunities on the glass.

Brionna Jones Under 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −110 → close −123 · CLV +2.8¢ · bet_clv:286722 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · conversion_unlucky · actual 15 · 19.6 min · benchJones posted an efficient 15 points on 20 minutes with a 98% true shooting rate, converting all five field-goal attempts and five of six free throws to easily clear the 10.5-point line. Her elite efficiency on limited volume—driven by a clean shooting night without a miss from the field—proved the decisive factor in the bet's loss.

Nyara Sabally Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.86ubet −116 → close −122 · CLV +1.3¢ · bet_clv:286732 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-10T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · actual 12 · 29.1 min · startedSabally dominated the glass with 12 rebounds in 29 minutes, nearly tripling the 4.5 line, by crashing the boards on both ends despite shooting just 41% from the field. Her 26% usage rate and defensive activity (4 steals, 1 block) kept her on the floor and positioned to grab plenty of available rebounds.

Data fetches · 55

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 111 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 124 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 143 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 150 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 164 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 150 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 364 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 447 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 260 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 272 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 707 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 708 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 298 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 730 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 730 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 766 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 445 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 956 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 818 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1124 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1344 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1359 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1362 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1363 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.