FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK
WIN- Actual
- 28 vs 24.5
- Flat-1u P&L
- +0.92u
- CLV
- +0.7¢
- Minutes
- 31.2
Postgame context: Mitchell's elite 68.75% effective FG rate (11-16 FG, 4-4 3PT) carried her to 28 points in 31 minutes, easily clearing the 24.5 line despite modest usage at 28%.
SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · POINTS
Kelsey Mitchell O 24.5 PTS −109
Persisted decision price · 0.0u model stake · bet_clv:290099
Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.
PROP BRIEF · START HERE
Review the recorded result—not a current play.
Recent games · Last 5 small sample; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent pushes back. Treat the disagreement as a reason to demand a better price or pass.
Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.
Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.
Verified receipt & source timing
Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:290099 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0 · capture bucket Aug 10, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified
WHY IT WAS SURFACED · FEED PRICE
51.2% model chance vs 52.2% needed at −109 · −1.0pp probability edge · −1.9% expected profit / 1uPREGAME CHECKS · AUDIT
What the receipt can—and cannot—prove
−109 · sportsbook unavailable · quote observation unavailable · bet_clv:290099
No immutable pre-tip player-status receipt is connected.
Pick-time minutes, lineup, and role inputs are not verified by the canonical receipt.
SUPPORTING CONTEXT · NOT EXTRA VOTES
Recent, H2H, and similar players
Against today's OVER 24.5 · 27.5 average · 37.6 average minutes
Vs NYL at today's OVER 24.5 · 24.2 average
5 comparable guards, each judged against that player's own closing line
BOTTOM LINE
Context pushes against the OVER
Recent games · Last 5 small sample; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent pushes back. Treat the disagreement as a reason to demand a better price or pass.
WHAT THE ARCHIVE IS MISSING
- Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.
- The source sportsbook or quote observation timestamp was not preserved.
- The pre-tip availability observation was not stored immutably.
See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players
- L3
- 2/2 At today's OVER 24.5 · avg 27.5 · 37.6 avg min
- L5
- 2/2 At today's OVER 24.5 · avg 27.5 · 37.6 avg min
- L10
- 2/2 At today's OVER 24.5 · avg 27.5 · 37.6 avg min
Player vs opponentFinished above 24.5 in 2/5 prior player meetings vs NYL
Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable
Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.
DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE
How comparable guards fared vs NYL
- All Points props vs NYL
- 136 games · mixed 81 players · 136 player-games · median even with market
- Same position family
- 33/61 below guards only · 37 players · median 0.5 below market
These are market-relative results, not raw points allowed: every peer is judged against the line offered for that peer's own game. The 5 shown are selected by position family and usual line; the opponent result is not used to rank them.
See the 5 comparable players
| Player | Why comparable | Date | Own close | Actual | Finish | Minutes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allisha Gray SG | usual 19.5 over 10 games · Δ 5.0 · 31.9 min | Jun 11 | 17.5 | 18.0 | 0.5 above market | 30.9 |
| Kelsey Plum SG | usual 19.5 over 10 games · Δ 5.0 · 29.3 min | Jun 21 | 21.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 below market | 35.9 |
| Marina Mabrey G | usual 20.5 over 10 games · Δ 4.0 · 31.3 min | Jul 12 | 20.5 | 30.0 | 9.5 above market | 35.2 |
| Paige Bueckers PG | usual 20.5 over 10 games · Δ 4.0 · 33.8 min | Jul 7 | 20.5 | 15.0 | 5.5 below market | 33.4 |
| Caitlin Clark PG | usual 19.3 over 10 games · Δ 5.3 · 31.4 min | Jul 18 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 below market | 26.2 |
Open evidence game log
HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK
Against each game's own verified close
Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…
CURRENT-LINE WHAT-IF
Prior results against this card's 24.5 line
| Date | Opponent | Actual | Minutes | OVER 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8 | @ CHI | 27.0 | 36.1 | Hit |
| Aug 6 | vs LVA | 28.0 | 39.1 | Hit |
Player history vs NYL
Latest 5 of 17 eligible meetings · finished above 24.5 in 2/5 · average 24.2. Context only; roles and schemes change.
| Date | Actual | Minutes | OVER 24.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18 | 33.0 | 29.6 | Hit |
| Jun 6 | 21.0 | 32.2 | Miss |
| Jul 22 | 29.0 | 35.0 | Hit |
| Jul 16 | 16.0 | 26.6 | Miss |
| Jun 14 | 22.0 | 34.1 | Miss |
See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks
The six items are pillars, not six yes/no questions. Each check below is evidence—not a gamified score. One hard failure can outweigh many verified inputs.
1 · Price & market value
What exact side, line, odds, and book are offered?
Kelsey Mitchell OVER 24.5 −109 · sportsbook unavailable
Source · canonical grading decision receiptWhen was the formula price captured?
Capture bucket Aug 10, 8:00 PM EDT (storage bucket, not decision time) · decision time unavailable · quote observation unavailable
Source · bet_clv:290099What hit rate does the price require?
52.2%
Source · derived from formula-feed American oddsWhat is the calibrated probability at this line?
51.2%
Source · canonical decision model.calibrated_hit_probabilityWhat is the probability-point edge?
−1.0pp
Source · p_hit minus formula-price break-evenWhat is expected profit per unit?
−1.9%
Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?
Mutable latest-market rows are intentionally excluded from historical pre-tip proof
What price or line turns this into a pass?
Server-authoritative playable boundaries are not published yet
Does the broader market agree?
Mutable latest-market rows are not used to reconstruct historical consensus
Is the market liquid enough?
Limits and liquidity are not connected
2 · Projection quality & uncertainty
What is the projected median?
Unavailable
What does the outcome distribution look like?
Distribution unavailable
How sensitive is the pick to minutes, usage, or pace?
Sensitivity model unavailable
What do L3, L5, and L10 show at this exact line?
L3 2/2 · L5 2/2 · L10 2/2 at the formula OVER 24.5 line
Source · reconstructed hydrator game history; target/same/future dates excludedIs the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?
The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here
Was calibration measured out of sample?
Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick
How large is the comparable historical sample?
2 eligible prior games in L10 · 0 under 10 minutes · nested descriptive sample, not 2 independent confirmations
When did the model run and were inputs complete?
Research run timestamp unavailable
Source · Gameplay Intelligence3 · Availability & role
Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?
No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved
Source · player-state serviceWhen was status last verified?
Snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped
Source · data-hydrator snapshot assemblyWhat is the expected minutes range?
Minutes projection unavailable
Is the player starting or restricted?
Starter and restriction status unavailable
Has opportunity changed?
Opportunity feed unavailable
Which teammate absences change the role?
No confirmed teammate-absence attribution returned
Were injury-shortened games identified?
The joined outcome does not include a verified abnormal-exposure flag
What rotation change could invalidate the projection?
No material role change returned
4 · Game environment & matchup
How many possessions are expected?
A game-level pace projection is not exposed on this card
What do spread and total imply?
Spread (home) -3.5 · Total 0 · Moneyline +138 / -175 · archive context only; not an immutable pre-tip market receipt · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT
Source · data-hydrator assembled game-market snapshotDoes opponent scheme affect this stat?
No stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable
What has this player done against this opponent?
Finished above 24.5 in 2/5 prior player meetings vs NYL
Source · reconstructed player-vs-team game history; target date excludedWhich defender or lineup matters?
Defender attribution is not exposed
Is rest, travel, or schedule a disadvantage?
Rest and travel context are not connected
What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?
Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified
5 · Execution & portfolio risk
Is the number still inside its playable boundary?
Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof
How was stake size derived?
0.0u model-sized stake
Source · canonical decision model.kelly_stake_unitsHow much correlated exposure already exists?
Player, game, and injury-thesis exposure are not connected
Are exposure limits respected?
Daily, league, player, and prop limits are not exposed
What event withdraws or expires the pick?
Game start and hard availability conflicts are enforced; price boundaries remain a backend gap
Is this pregame, live, or halftime analysis?
Schedule status: final · formula-feed archive context
Is there a no-chase rule?
The UI expires the card after tip and requires exact-line verification; explicit price-bound enforcement is pending
6 · Outcome evidence & accountability
Did the pick beat the comparable close?
+0.7¢ closing-line value (price CLV)
Source · joined grading settlementWas the formula line stored immutably?
OVER 24.5 · decision key pd_3553c3152a4c1028fffa6ff8 · receipt bet_clv:290099 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0
Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?
Mitchell's elite 68.75% effective FG rate (11-16 FG, 4-4 3PT) carried her to 28 points in 31 minutes, easily clearing the 24.5 line despite modest usage at 28%.
Source · joined outcome receiptWhat are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?
This pick's flat-1u CORE result is +0.92u. Personal staking remains separate.
Source · joined grading ledgerWhat are sample size and uncertainty interval?
Per-cohort confidence interval is not exposed on the card
Are probabilities calibrated by Brier or log loss?
Per-cohort calibration metrics are not exposed
Where is performance weakening?
League/prop/price/book/time-to-tip drift is not joined here
What are drawdown and losing-streak behavior?
Portfolio drawdown belongs to the ledger and is not connected to this pick
Is the edge persisting in new data?
Model-versioned out-of-sample persistence is not exposed per pick