WNBA · Finalupdated 09:58 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: WAS 3.25, LVA 1.37

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 00:41 UTC

WAS 76 – LVA 86

Final · 2 of 4 picks won

4 picks checked: 2 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

S. Austin · Over 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.05 · last price before start 2.03Won +1.05 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.05 · Our price was 0.5% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 2.03, 19 min ago

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Tue 05:44 UTC); latest 2.10 at Pinnacle (Wed 01:42 UTC). The 17.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 1.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

C. Gray · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.57Won +0.97 per 1 staked

K. Iriafen · Under 9.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.68Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Citron · Over 3.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.70 · last price before start 1.68Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying LVA

SSonia Citron · 32 min expected

assists 3.5 → 2 actual

SShakira Austin · 29 min expected

points 17.5 → 20 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 27 min expected

rebounds 9.5 → 13 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 2 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 22 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Cotie McMahon · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

Lauren Betts · 19 min expected

points 6.5 → 4 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Prosper (11 expected minutes) · Florez (8 min) · +2 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying WAS

SA'ja Wilson · 34 min expected

points 24.5 → 26 actual

SChelsea Gray · 34 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

SJackie Young · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 25 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 27 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

Jewell Loyd · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (20 expected minutes) · Talbot (20 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 09:58 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 11, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 4 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 2, 3 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 3 players (Wilson, Young, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

McMahon: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 17.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.4 more than usual

Loyd: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 20.6 in the last 5 games, about 7.4 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 24 of the 145 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 4 picks won2 won, 2 lost · +0.02 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 3.9% higher than the last before the start · 9 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

Sonia Citron · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 33.1 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 3.5 at 1.70 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Kiki Iriafen · rebounds 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 9.5 at 1.72 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Chelsea Gray · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.3 min (34 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.97 → Won +0.97 per 1 staked

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 30.3 min (29 expected)

Pick: Over 17.5 at 2.05 → Won +1.05 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Georgia Amoore · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 20.1 min (22 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Michaela Onyenwere · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 25 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.98

Jewell Loyd · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 22.5 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 14.2 min (19 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.04

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 25 · 6.5 above the line · played 32.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Cotie McMahon · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.4 min (24 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 26 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.7 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.1 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs WAS · last 16 games · LVA leads · LVA record 9–7 · average score 84.6–81.3 · LVA has won by 3.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 83LVA won

11 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 86LVA won

22 Jul · LVA 99 at WAS 100LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.0 points · 33.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.4% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

LVA gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 8, expected total 167.5 (Tue 01:13 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 6, expected total 170.5 (Wed 00:41 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Shakira Austin · O 17.5 points+105value_edge_pct +4.25 · kelly 1.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Sonia Citron · O 3.5 assists−142value_edge_pct −1.39 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Shakira Austin · O 16.5 points−118value_edge_pct −2.58 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Kiki Iriafen · U 9.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −3.73 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Chelsea Gray · U 2.5 rebounds−103value_edge_pct −4.05 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 9

A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −169 → close −176 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:290844 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 34.7 min · startedWilson dominated as a scorer (26 pts on 64% TS) and rebounder (13 boards) but operated almost entirely in isolation and pick-and-roll finishes rather than as a facilitator, finishing with just 2 assists despite 35 minutes and 35% usage. The high-volume scoring role left minimal opportunity for playmaking, especially with 5 turnovers suggesting ball-heavy possessions.

Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTSWIN +1.05ubet +105 → close +103 · CLV +0.5¢ · bet_clv:290839 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.9% · actual 20 · 30.3 min · startedAustin cleared the line with 20 points by staying aggressive with 37% usage and drawing fouls (4-4 FT), though her 8-21 shooting (38%) was inefficient and kept the margin tight. She logged 30 minutes and stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF), giving her enough volume to push past 17.5.

Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTSWIN +0.85ubet −118 → close −115 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:290840 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 20 · 30.3 min · startedAustin cleared 16.5 on volume alone, logging 30 minutes with 37% usage while converting 4-of-4 from the line to reach 20 points despite shooting just 38% from the field. Her free-throw efficiency and heavy involvement in the offense proved enough to push through an otherwise inefficient shooting night.

Sonia Citron Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −142 → close −148 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:290845 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 33.1 min · startedCitron's playmaking dried up despite heavy scoring involvement—she recorded just 2 assists on 26% usage while turning the ball over 3 times, suggesting she was operating more as a scorer than a facilitator in this game.

Lauren Betts Over 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −176 → close −176 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:290843 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.4% · unexplained · actual 4 · 14.2 min · bench

Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −147 → close −155 · CLV +1.3¢ · bet_clv:290842 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 35.3 min · startedGray fell one assist short despite heavy minutes (35), hampered by inefficient shooting (5-13 FG) that limited her ability to generate secondary offense and keep possessions alive.

Chelsea Gray Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.97ubet −103 → close −174 · CLV +12.8¢ · bet_clv:290841 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · actual 2 · 35.3 min · startedGray stayed on the perimeter throughout her 35 minutes, recording only 2 rebounds while maintaining a ball-dominant role with 5 assists, keeping her firmly under the 2.5 threshold despite heavy usage.

Jewell Loyd Over 1.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −182 → close −195 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:290838 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 22.5 min · startedLoyd drew 22 minutes but recorded zero rebounds despite playing significant role-player minutes, a rare occurrence likely driven by Seattle's perimeter-heavy offensive scheme and her positioning away from the glass on a night where the team controlled the boards elsewhere. The under cashed decisively as she failed to secure a single rebound across 22 minutes.

Kiki Iriafen Under 9.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −138 → close −146 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:290837 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 34.2 min · startedIriafen exceeded the under by grabbing 13 rebounds in 34 minutes, posting a season-high rebound total despite modest usage at just 20%—she simply dominated the glass on a per-minute basis with 3.8 boards per 36 minutes. The under missed because she stayed out of foul trouble (1 PF) and was given the green light to pursue boards in a close game (+2), translating to heavy crashing on both ends.

Data fetches · 53

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 62 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 80 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 82 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 83 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 85 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 105 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 224 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 241 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 349 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 375 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 664 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 598 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 624 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 636 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 991 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 800 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 803 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 818 ms

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odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1003 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1024 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.