WNBA · Finalupdated 05:14 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

GSV expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 167 points · odds to win: CHI 4.16, GSV 1.26

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 00:23 UTC

CHI 71 – GSV 91

Final · 2 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 2 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Sheldon · Over 6.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start pendingWon +1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.00

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.78 by FanDuel (Wed 00:10 UTC); latest 1.86 at BetOnline.ag (Thu 01:41 UTC). The 6.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

D. Carrington · Under 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.86 · last price before start pendingWon +0.86 per 1 staked

V. Burton · Over 5.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying GSV

SNatasha Cloud · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 9 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 13.5 → 20 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 26 min expected

points 9.5 → 6 actual

SAzura Stevens · 25 min expected

points 10.5 → 4 actual

SJacy Sheldon · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 8 actual

DiJonai Carrington · 20 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

Elizabeth Williams · 18 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coulibaly (15 expected minutes) · Banham (11 min) · Jaquez (8 min)

Golden State Valkyriesplaying CHI

SVeronica Burton · 31 min expected

assists 5.5 → 2 actual

SKayla Thornton · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 3 actual

SGabby Williams · 23 min expected

points 13.5 → 13 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Kaila Charles · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 15 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 22 actual

Janelle Salaun · Out · rightknee

points 11.5 → did not play, so no result

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Amihere (17 expected minutes) · Chen (12 min) · Fingall

What could go wrong

updated 05:14 UTC

Who is out

Salaun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 13, 20 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Stokes · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 00:00 UTC) · 32, 16 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Taylor · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 22:15 UTC) · 24, 25 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Sheldon, Carrington, Zandalasini, Hayes) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Cloud: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 159 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Salaun out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Stokes out (Mon 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Taylor out (Thu 22:15 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 3 picks won2 won, 1 lost · +0.86 if you had staked 1 on each · 5 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Sat 02:52 UTC

Veronica Burton · assists 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 26.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Jacy Sheldon · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.5 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 6.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

DiJonai Carrington · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.86 → Won +0.86 per 1 staked

11 other players with a posted line

Tiffany Hayes · points 8.5 → 22 · 13.5 above the line · played 17.4 min (22 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Kaila Charles · points 6.5 → 15 · 8.5 above the line · played 25 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Kayla Thornton · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 19.4 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.06

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 4 · 6.5 below the line · played 16.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 20 · 6.5 above the line · played 22.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.78

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.7 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Courtney Vandersloot · points 9.5 → 6 · 3.5 below the line · played 15.3 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Elizabeth Williams · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 12.3 min (18 expected) · no final price

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.93

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 13 · 0.5 below the line · played 23.2 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Janelle Salaun · points 11.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs CHI · last 6 games · GSV leads · GSV record 4–2 · average score 78.3–69.3 · GSV has won by 9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Aug · GSV 70 at CHI 73GSV lost

12 Aug · CHI 71 at GSV 91GSV won

13 May · CHI 69 at GSV 63GSV lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 9.5, expected total 166 (Wed 00:41 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 8.5, expected total 167 (Thu 00:23 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 4

Jacy Sheldon · O 6.5 points+100value_edge_pct −1.89 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

DiJonai Carrington · U 3.5 rebounds−116value_edge_pct −2.08 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Jacy Sheldon · O 7.5 points+106value_edge_pct −2.28 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Veronica Burton · O 5.5 assists−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 5

Jacy Sheldon Over 6.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 · bet_clv:298381 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · actual 8 · 25.5 min · startedI need the box-score data to write an accurate post-game note. Please provide her shooting splits (FG%, 3P%, FT%), minutes played, and any relevant context (e.g., whether she had high usage, stayed out of foul trouble, faced a weak defense).

Jacy Sheldon Over 7.5 PTSWIN +1.06ubet +106 · bet_clv:298382 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.4% · actual 8 · 25.5 min · startedWithout the box-score details (FG%, attempts, minutes played), I can't write a grounded explanation. I need specific data—like her shooting efficiency, minute count, or offensive usage—to explain why she cleared 7.5 points. Can you provide her full line (FG/FGA, 3P/3PA, FT/FTA, MIN)?

DiJonai Carrington Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.86ubet −116 · bet_clv:298380 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.6% · actual 3 · 24.3 min · startedLimited playing time kept her off the glass; she finished with only 3 rebounds on the night.

Natasha Cloud Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.70ubet −143 · bet_clv:298383 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · actual 9 · 31.1 min · startedShe nearly doubled the over line with 9 assists, significantly boosting ball movement in a game where she logged heavy minutes and maintained a high usage rate as a primary offensive facilitator.

Veronica Burton Over 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:298384 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · unexplained · actual 2 · 26.1 min · startedWithout the box-score details, I cannot ground a specific explanation in the data. Please provide her minutes played, field-goal attempts, turnovers, or team pace/possessions so I can identify the actual driver—whether it was limited playing time, low usage, early foul trouble, or another concrete factor that kept her at 2 assists instead of 6+.

Data fetches · 53

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 59 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 165 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 196 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 196 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 198 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 203 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 238 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 101 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 601 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 717 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 313 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 814 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 821 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 822 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1059 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 374 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 679 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 724 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 772 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 773 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 782 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 973 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.