Picks and prices
Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checkedA line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.
I. Harrison · Under 4.5 reboundsLost▸Posted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
Posted at 2.15
Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line
First offered at 2.10 by DraftKings (); latest 1.78 at BetOnline.ag (). The line moved from 4.5 to 5.5.
Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked
In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.
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In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.
In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.
The players
10 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 3 out · 0 with too few gamesRate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.
Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.
Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.
Toronto Tempoplaying DAL
3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fagbenle (18 expected minutes) · Nurse (14 min) · Key
Dallas Wingsplaying TOR
6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Yueru (25 expected minutes) · Sims (22 min) · +4 more
What could go wrong
updatedJames · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 13, 12 and 15 min in the last 3 games
Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games
Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 7, 5 and 7 min in the last 3 games
Shepard · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 33, 36 and 27 min in the last 3 games
Yueru · did not play last game
Sutton · did not play last game
Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed ) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games
Allemand · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 25, 23 and 26 min in the last 3 games
Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed ) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games
Key · did not play last game
Green · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 21, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games
Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed
4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Juskaite, Mabrey) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.
Sabally: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual
Morrow: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 19.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.3 more than usual
Smith: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 20.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual
Kuier: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 25.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.7 fewer than usual
Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.
Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.
The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 146 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.
Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.
Flagged before the game: James out () · played
Flagged before the game: Fudd out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Jones out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Shepard out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Yueru out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Sutton out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Sykes out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Allemand out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Conde out () · did not play
Flagged before the game: Key out · did not play
Flagged before the game: Green out () · did not play
2 expected players did not play
When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.
What happened
In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.▸8 other players with a posted line
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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.
▸More context
DAL vs TOR · last 3 games · DAL leads · DAL record 3–0 · average score 97.0–86.3 · DAL has won by 10.7 on average
Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.
Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 9, expected total 185 () and later DAL expected to win by 9.5, expected total 183.5 ().
▸Data log (technical)
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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.