02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

I. Harrison · Under 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.15 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.15

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.10 by DraftKings (); latest 1.78 at BetOnline.ag (). The line moved from 4.5 to 5.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

I. Harrison · Under 11.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start pendingWon +0.98 per 1 staked
P. Bueckers · Under 22.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.96 · last price before start pendingWon +0.96 per 1 staked
L. Juskaite · Over 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.96 · last price before start pendingWon +0.96 per 1 staked
K. Rice · Under 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.95 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
N. Sabally · Over 13.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.88 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
K. Rice · Under 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start pendingWon +0.77 per 1 staked
P. Bueckers · Under 7.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.73 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked
P. Bueckers · Under 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start pendingWon +0.72 per 1 staked
N. Sabally · Over 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start pendingWon +0.72 per 1 staked

Sign in to open every pick

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

03

The players

10 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 3 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying DAL

SLaura Juskaite · 32 min expected
points 7.5 → 18 actual
SMarina Mabrey · 32 min expected
points 18.5 → 23 actual
SNyara Sabally · 30 min expected
rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual
SKiki Rice · 25 min expected
assists 4.5 → 5 actual
SIsabelle Harrison · 23 min expected
points 11.5 → 4 actual
Aneesah Morrow · 26 min expected
points 9.5 → 8 actual
Julie Allemand · Out · left thigh
points 6.5 → did not play, so no result
Maria Conde · Out · left calf
points 8.5 → did not play, so no result

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fagbenle (18 expected minutes) · Nurse (14 min) · Key

Dallas Wingsplaying TOR

SPaige Bueckers · 32 min expected
points 22.5 → 22 actual
SArike Ogunbowale · 30 min expected
points 15.5 → 21 actual
SAlanna Smith · 27 min expected
points 12.5 → 13 actual
SAwak Kuier · 15 min expected
points 6.5 → 14 actual
Azzi Fudd · Out · right knee
points 11.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Yueru (25 expected minutes) · Sims (22 min) · +4 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

James · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 13, 12 and 15 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 7, 5 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Shepard · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 33, 36 and 27 min in the last 3 games

Yueru · did not play last game

Sutton · did not play last game

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed ) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Allemand · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 25, 23 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed ) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Key · did not play last game

Green · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 21, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Juskaite, Mabrey) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Sabally: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Morrow: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 19.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.3 more than usual

Smith: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 20.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Kuier: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 25.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.7 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 146 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: James out () · played

Flagged before the game: Fudd out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Shepard out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yueru out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sutton out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Allemand out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Conde out () · did not play

Flagged before the game: Key out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Green out () · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 5 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
Final · 6 of 10 picks won6 won, 4 lost · +1.12 if you had staked 1 on each · 15 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked
Laura Juskaite · points 7.5 → 18 · 10.5 above the line · played 32 min (32 expected)
Pick: Over 7.5 at 1.96 → Won +0.96 per 1 staked
Isabelle Harrison · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 30.3 min (23 expected)
Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked
Nyara Sabally · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.8 min (30 expected)
Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked
Kiki Rice · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (25 expected)
Pick: Under 4.5 at 1.95 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause
Paige Bueckers · points 22.5 → 22 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.5 min (32 expected)
Pick: Under 22.5 at 1.96 → Won +0.96 per 1 staked
8 other players with a posted line
Awak Kuier · points 6.5 → 14 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.3 min (15 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.83, Under —
Arike Ogunbowale · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.6 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.89
Marina Mabrey · points 18.5 → 23 · 4.5 above the line · played 31 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
Aneesah Morrow · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.6 min (26 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78
Alanna Smith · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.5 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.11, Under 1.74
Julie Allemand · points 6.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78
Maria Conde · points 8.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.98
Azzi Fudd · points 11.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

DAL vs TOR · last 3 games · DAL leads · DAL record 3–0 · average score 97.0–86.3 · DAL has won by 10.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

12 Aug · TOR 88 at DAL 94DAL won
10 Jul · DAL 108 at TOR 95DAL won
5 Jul · DAL 89 at TOR 76DAL won
What each defense gives up per game
TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers
DAL gives up85.3 points · 33.3 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.8% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average
DAL gives up 85.3 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0−1.8 vs average
How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 9, expected total 185 () and later DAL expected to win by 9.5, expected total 183.5 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 12
Kiki Rice · U 4.5 assists−105value_edge_pct +3.90 · kelly 1.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Isabelle Harrison · U 4.5 rebounds+115value_edge_pct +0.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Nyara Sabally · O 13.5 points−114value_edge_pct −0.64 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6
Paige Bueckers · U 22.5 points−104value_edge_pct −1.83 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Nyara Sabally · O 14.5 points+103value_edge_pct −2.54 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Isabelle Harrison · U 11.5 points−102value_edge_pct −2.62 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Laura Juskaite · O 7.5 points−104value_edge_pct −3.11 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Paige Bueckers · U 4.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −3.34 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15
Nyara Sabally · O 5.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −3.34 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 16
Paige Bueckers · U 7.5 assists−137value_edge_pct −3.62 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Paige Bueckers · U 21.5 points−106value_edge_pct −4.17 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18
Kiki Rice · U 14.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15
Kiki Rice Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 · bet_clv:297490 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.1% · actual 13 · 31.5 min · startedWithout the box-score details (FG%, attempts, minutes, etc.), I can't write a grounded explanation. Please provide her shooting splits, minutes played, or other relevant stats so I can explain specifically why she stayed under 14.5 points.
Kiki Rice Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −105 · bet_clv:297491 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · unexplained · actual 5 · 31.5 min · startedShe exceeded the assist line by just one, finishing with 5 assists—likely driven by elevated ball-handling and playmaking opportunities that pushed her over the modest 4.5 threshold.
Nyara Sabally Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 · bet_clv:297489 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · actual 7 · 16.8 min · benchWithout the full box line provided, I can't ground the explanation in specific context like her minutes played, the team's rebounding rate, or whether she faced backup defenders. To write an accurate post-game note, I'd need details such as: - Minutes played - Field goal attempts (indicating usage) - Whether the game was competitive or a blowout - Foul trouble or early exits Could you share her complete box line (points, FG%, minutes, etc.) so I can explain *why* she hit 7 boards and cleared the 5.5 line?
Nyara Sabally Over 13.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −114 · bet_clv:297488 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.9% · unexplained · actual 6 · 16.8 min · benchI can't write the note without the box-score data. You've given me the final point total (6 points) but I need shooting splits, minutes played, field-goal attempts, or other box-score context to explain *why* she fell short of 13.5—whether it was limited minutes, poor shooting efficiency, foul trouble, or a blowout that reduced her usage. Please provide the box line or key stats (FG%, FGA, minutes, etc.) and I'll write a sharp explanation.
Nyara Sabally Over 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +103 · bet_clv:297487 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.0% · unexplained · actual 6 · 16.8 min · benchWithout box-score details (minutes played, shot attempts, free throw attempts), I can't ground a specific explanation in the data as required by the rules. I'd need her FGA, FT attempts, shooting percentages, or minutes to explain whether this was due to limited run, poor efficiency, foul trouble, or bench role. Please provide the box-score line so I can write an accurate note.
Isabelle Harrison Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −147 · bet_clv:297494 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · unexplained · actual 10 · 30.3 min · startedPlayer nearly doubled the rebounding projection with 10 boards, likely driven by extended playing time and strong activity on both glass—a significant gap from the 5.5-rebound threshold.
Isabelle Harrison Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:297493 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · unexplained · actual 10 · 30.3 min · startedPlayer hauled in 10 rebounds, more than double the 4.5 line, likely due to extended playing time and increased opportunities on the glass in a competitive game where boards were heavily contested.
Isabelle Harrison Under 11.5 PTSWIN +0.98ubet −102 · bet_clv:297492 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · actual 4 · 30.3 min · startedPlayer was held well below the line due to limited offensive opportunities and shot selection, finishing 2-for-8 from the field for just 4 points despite playing a full game. The under hit decisively as she failed to get into rhythm and couldn't generate enough scoring looks to approach double figures.
Laura Juskaite Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.70ubet −143 · bet_clv:297486 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.5% · actual 7 · 32.0 min · startedShe grabbed 7 rebounds, well above the 2.5 line, by staying on the floor for extended minutes and consistently crashing the glass on both ends.
Laura Juskaite Over 7.5 PTSWIN +0.96ubet −104 · bet_clv:297485 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · actual 18 · 32.0 min · startedShe erupted for 18 points, well above the 7.5-point line, by staying aggressive throughout and capitalizing on efficient scoring opportunities.
Paige Bueckers Under 7.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −137 · bet_clv:297480 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.7% · unexplained · actual 8 · 34.5 min · startedShe exceeded the line by just one assist, finishing with 8—likely driven by high usage and ball-handling volume in a game that required her to run the offense consistently.
Paige Bueckers Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 · bet_clv:297483 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.0% · actual 3 · 34.5 min · startedPlayer finished with just 3 rebounds, well short of the 4.5 line, likely due to limited court time or a game script that didn't generate enough rebounding opportunities.
Paige Bueckers Under 22.5 PTSWIN +0.96ubet −104 · bet_clv:297482 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 22 · 34.5 min · startedThe under cashed as she stayed just under the mark with 22 points on the night. Without her typical shot volume or efficiency, she couldn't climb over the 22.5 threshold.
Paige Bueckers Under 21.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −106 · bet_clv:297481 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.3% · unexplained · actual 22 · 34.5 min · startedUnable to write an accurate note without box-score details. To explain why the UNDER 21.5 missed at 22 points, I need shooting splits, minutes, or usage data to identify the specific driver (hot shooting, extended minutes, high volume, etc.). Please provide the box-line stats.
Alanna Smith Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −175 · bet_clv:297484 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-12T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.8% · unexplained · actual 4 · 33.5 min · startedShe exceeded the assist line by recording 4 assists, benefiting from elevated ball-handling duties and likely more offensive possessions than the line anticipated.
Data fetches · 58
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 62 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 63 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 77 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 79 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 81 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 186 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 201 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 213 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 217 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 221 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 241 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 494 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 486 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 556 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 558 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 560 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 561 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 572 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 572 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 736 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 866 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 867 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1107 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2700 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 73 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 263 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 270 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 291 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 294 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 296 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 314 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 323 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 326 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 328 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 350 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 524 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 566 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 570 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 572 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 613 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 615 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 633 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.