WNBA · Finalupdated 14:51 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: WAS 2.88, LVA 1.45

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:52 UTC

WAS 76 – LVA 83

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

S. Austin · Over 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.96Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was 0.5% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.96, 8 min ago

First offered at 1.83 by Pinnacle (Thu 05:34 UTC); latest 1.93 at Pinnacle (Fri 01:53 UTC). The line moved from 16.5 to 17.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

J. Young · Over 18.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.79 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying LVA

SSonia Citron · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 17 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 5 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 29 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 5 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 21 min expected

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Cotie McMahon · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Lauren Betts · 15 min expected

points 5.5 → 4 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Laney-Hamilton (12 expected minutes) · Florez (5 min) · +2 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying WAS

SA'ja Wilson · 34 min expected

points 25.5 → 15 actual

SChelsea Gray · 34 min expected

points 12.5 → 4 actual

SJackie Young · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 32 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 29 min expected

points 10.5 → 6 actual

Jewell Loyd · 25 min expected

points 6.5 → 13 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (17 expected minutes) · Talbot (10 min) · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 14:51 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 11, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 4 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 2, 3 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Littlepage-Buggs · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 01:00 UTC) · 4, 2 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Austin, Iriafen, Wilson, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Betts: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 22.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.3 fewer than usual

McMahon: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 17.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.4 more than usual

Smith: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 23.8 in the last 5 games, about 5.2 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out (Tue 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +1.77 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.2% higher than the last before the start · 4 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 32 · 13.5 above the line · played 35.3 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 18.5 at 1.79 → Won +0.79 per 1 staked

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 29 · 11.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 17.5 at 1.98 → Won +0.98 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Jewell Loyd · points 6.5 → 13 · 6.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (25 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.93, Under —

Georgia Amoore · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 25.6 min (21 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.68

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 4 · 8.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.82

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 26.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.99

NaLyssa Smith · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 28.5 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.75, Under 2.00

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 15 · 10.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.89

Michaela Onyenwere · points 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.9 min (25 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.89, Under —

Lauren Betts · points 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 19.4 min (15 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.05

Cotie McMahon · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.5 min (24 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.83, Under —

Sonia Citron · points 16.5 → 17 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.4 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.98

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs WAS · last 16 games · LVA leads · LVA record 9–7 · average score 84.6–81.3 · LVA has won by 3.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

13 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 83LVA won

11 Aug · WAS 76 at LVA 86LVA won

22 Jul · LVA 99 at WAS 100LVA lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.0 points · 33.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.4% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

LVA gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 7, expected total 169 (Thu 01:04 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 6, expected total 170.5 (Fri 00:52 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Shakira Austin · O 17.5 points−102value_edge_pct −2.63 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Shakira Austin · O 16.5 points−127value_edge_pct −3.46 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Jackie Young · O 18.5 points−126value_edge_pct −4.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 4

Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTSWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −104 · CLV +0.5¢ · bet_clv:301779 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · actual 29 · 30.5 min · startedAustin erupted for 29 points on elite 60% two-point shooting and 80% free-throw conversion, nearly doubling the over line of 17.5 with a game-high 41% usage rate over 30 minutes. Her 65% true shooting and 12-20 field-goal performance provided the offensive firepower needed to clear the total by 11.5 points.

A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.52ubet −192 → close −192 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:304561 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.3% · actual 4 · 34.7 min · startedWilson's playmaking from the post proved reliable even on an off shooting night (5-14 FG); she distributed the ball at her usual rate and cleared the 2.5 assist bar with 4 dimes in 35 minutes.

Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −141 · CLV +2.6¢ · bet_clv:301780 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 29 · 30.5 min · startedAustin torched the line with a dominant 12-20 shooting performance (60% FG) and 65% true shooting, easily clearing 16.5 on 30 minutes and 41% usage. She was simply unstoppable inside, converting at an elite rate to nearly double the projection.

Jackie Young Over 18.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −126 → close −126 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:301778 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-13T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · actual 32 · 35.3 min · startedYoung's elite 91% TS on 25% usage—driven by a scorching 10-14 FG and 5-8 3PT shooting—easily cleared the 18.5 line, as she paced the offense in a blowout with 35 minutes of run.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 70 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 167 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 195 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 196 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 101 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 380 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 606 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 613 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1021 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 346 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 561 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 563 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 629 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 643 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 645 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 646 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 654 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 668 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.