WNBA · Finalupdated 04:51 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

MIN expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 181.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.74, LVA 2.16

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 22:32 UTC

MIN 92 – LVA 87

Final · 0 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 0 won, 3 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Over 15.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.02 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.02 · Our price was 1.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 2.02, 28 min ago

First offered at 1.91 by Pinnacle (Sat 12:46 UTC); latest 2.02 at Pinnacle (Sat 23:03 UTC). The 15.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

K. McBride · Under 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.74Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Young · Over 18.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.75Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying LVA

SCourtney Williams · 33 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SKayla McBride · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 13 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 19 actual

SOlivia Miles · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 23 actual

SNatasha Howard · 26 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coffey (13 expected minutes) · Caldwell (12 min) · +3 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying MIN

SA'ja Wilson · 34 min expected

points 25.5 → 32 actual

SChelsea Gray · 34 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SJackie Young · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 8 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Jewell Loyd · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (16 expected minutes) · Pissott (14 min) · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:51 UTC

Who is out

Parker-Tyus · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 11, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 4 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 2, 3 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Delaere · did not play last game

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 11, 26 and 6 min in the last 3 games

Buenavida · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC)

Joklova · did not play last game

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 7 players (Miles, Collier, McBride, Williams, Wilson, Young, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 24 of the 112 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Parker-Tyus out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Delaere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Buenavida out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Joklova out · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 3 picks won0 won, 3 lost · −3.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.7% higher than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Tue 00:52 UTC

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 8 · 10.5 below the line · played 33.4 min (34 expected)

Pick: Over 18.5 at 1.80 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Kayla McBride · points 15.5 → 13 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.4 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 15.5 at 2.02 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

8 other players with a posted line

NaLyssa Smith · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.4 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 32 · 6.5 above the line · played 33.7 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.02

Olivia Miles · points 19.5 → 23 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.8 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.76

Courtney Williams · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.5 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.4 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.74

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.2 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.71

Napheesa Collier · points 19.5 → 19 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.1 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs MIN · last 19 games · LVA leads · LVA record 10–9 · average score 84.6–87.1 · LVA has lost by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Aug · MIN 92 at LVA 87LVA lost

8 Aug · LVA 87 at MIN 98LVA lost

13 Jun · MIN 97 at LVA 100LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.7 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.4 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.5% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.0 points · 33.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.4% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.7 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.4 vs average

LVA gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 1.5, expected total 183 (Sat 01:38 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 2, expected total 181.5 (Sat 22:32 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−123value_edge_pct −1.35 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Kayla McBride · O 15.5 points+102value_edge_pct −1.71 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Jackie Young · O 18.5 points−125value_edge_pct −3.53 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

Kayla McBride Over 15.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +102 → close −102 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:312670 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride's 13 points fell just short despite efficient 79% true shooting, as she recorded only 13% usage—her lowest volume constraint of the season—limiting her scoring ceiling even with 33 minutes played. She connected on all five free throws but made just 3 of 6 field goals, needing one more bucket from the floor to clear the line.

Jackie Young Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −125 → close −133 · CLV +1.5¢ · bet_clv:312674 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 33.4 min · startedYoung's 8 points fell well short of 18.5 as she struggled significantly from the field, shooting just 3-11 (27%) and 2-7 from three despite logging 33 minutes—a clear case of poor efficiency rather than limited opportunity. Her 23% usage rate and 36% true shooting percentage indicate she was getting touches but couldn't convert, with nine turnovers further limiting her scoring impact.

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −123 → close −136 · CLV +2.5¢ · bet_clv:312669 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, finishing with 3 boards in 33 minutes of extended playing time. Despite modest usage at 13%, she was on the floor long enough to pick up the extra rebound needed to push past 2.5.

Natasha Howard Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −160 → close −160 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:312672 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.3% · unexplained · actual 1 · 36.4 min · startedHoward's usage rate of 17% limited her ball-handling opportunities despite playing 36 minutes; she recorded just 1 assist as a finisher rather than a facilitator in the offense.

Courtney Williams Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −156 → close −172 · CLV +2.3¢ · bet_clv:312671 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 28.5 min · startedWilliams generated heavy shot volume (14 FG attempts, 30% usage) but turned the ball over 4 times in 28 minutes, limiting her ability to facilitate and run the offense. She recorded just 1 assist despite the playing time, suggesting the team's offensive structure or her individual shot-first approach prioritized scoring over playmaking.

Jackie Young Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −148 → close −148 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:312673 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.1% · unexplained · actual 8 · 33.4 min · startedYoung shot just 3-11 (27% FG) and 2-7 (29% 3PT) despite playing 33 minutes, combining poor efficiency with a relatively low usage rate (23%) to fall 9.5 points short of the over.

Data fetches · 48

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 24 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 33 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 36 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 42 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 30 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 350 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 472 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 693 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 729 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 874 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 766 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 950 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 830 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 835 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 955 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 964 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 973 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.