WNBA · Finalupdated 04:51 UTC

New York Liberty vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

NYL expected to win by about 8 · both teams together expected to score about 171 points · odds to win: NYL 1.26, CON 4.09

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 15:51 UTC

NYL 82 – CON 75

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

C. Leger-Walker · Under 7.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.86 · last price before start 1.86Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.86 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.89 by DraftKings (Sat 05:44 UTC); latest 2.04 at Caesars (Sat 16:52 UTC). The 6.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

P. Astier · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start pendingWon +0.79 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying CON

SBreanna Stewart · 31 min expected

points 21.5 → 11 actual

SJonquel Jones · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 23 actual

SPauline Astier · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

SRebecca Allen · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

SMarine Johannes · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 17 actual

Han Xu · 17 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Sabrina Ionescu · Out · left foot

points 18.5 → did not play, so no result

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fauthoux (24 expected minutes) · Gardner (21 min) · +2 more

Connecticut Sunplaying NYL

SLeila Lacan · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 10 actual

SOlivia Nelson-Ododa · 29 min expected

points 10.5 → 21 actual

SDiamond Miller · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 14 actual

Brittney Griner · Out · left knee

points 12.5 → did not play, so no result

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burke (24 expected minutes) · Beers (18 min) · +7 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:51 UTC

Who is out

Edwards · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 20:15 UTC) · 17, 27 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sun 16:30 UTC) · 19, 24 and 31 min in the last 3 games

Lith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 20:45 UTC) · 28, 13 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 16, 32 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Ionescu · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Fri 20:45 UTC) · 23, 29 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 17:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Johannes, Fauthoux, Beers, Rivers) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Jones: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.3 more than usual

Allen: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 7.8 more than usual

Nelson-Ododa: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 19.3 in the last 5 games, about 9.7 more than usual

Leger-Walker: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 25.2 in the last 5 games, about 5.2 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 113 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Edwards out (Mon 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Griner out (Sun 16:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Lith out (Wed 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Ionescu out (Fri 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · −0.21 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · 7 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Mon 17:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Marine Johannes · points 7.5 → 17 · 9.5 above the line · played 30.6 min (24 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.97

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 6.5 → 14 · 7.5 above the line · played 31.8 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → 21 · 10.5 above the line · played 28 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Han Xu · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.6 min (17 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 34.7 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Breanna Stewart · points 21.5 → 11 · 10.5 below the line · played 32.7 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.09

Rebecca Allen · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.5 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Diamond Miller · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.3 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.75

Leila Lacan · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.7 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.90

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.8 min (26 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.88

Sabrina Ionescu · points 18.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.17, Under 1.62

Brittney Griner · points 12.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.18, Under 1.61

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs NYL · last 22 games · NYL leads · CON record 5–17 · average score 76.1–80.5 · CON has lost by 4.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

15 Aug · NYL 82 at CON 75CON lost

8 Jun · NYL 89 at CON 80CON lost

8 May · CON 75 at NYL 106CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.6 points · 31.5 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.6 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 7.5, expected total 173.5 (Sat 00:36 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 8, expected total 171 (Sat 15:51 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Pauline Astier · U 2.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct −4.36 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 7.5 points−116value_edge_pct −4.94 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 7

Pauline Astier Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.68ubet −146 → close −146 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:315892 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.2% · actual 4 · 25.8 min · started

Pauline Astier Under 4.5 ASTWIN +0.66ubet −151 → close −146 · CLV −0.8¢ · bet_clv:311272 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.9% · actual 4 · 25.8 min · startedAstier stayed under the 4.5 assist line despite 26 minutes of action, as her 17% usage rate limited her ball-handling opportunities and she turned the ball over once against four dimes. The low usage kept her out of the primary playmaking role, allowing the under to cash comfortably at exactly 4 assists.

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −167 → close −180 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:311271 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.7% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 34.7 min · startedJones fell one assist short despite heavy volume (35 min, 28% usage, 23 pts on efficient 9-16 shooting), as her playmaking simply didn't materialize with only 2 dimes and 3 turnovers in a game where she was primarily a scorer rather than a facilitator.

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 7.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −116 → close −116 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:313419 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.1% · unexplained · actual 14 · 31.8 min · startedLeger-Walker doubled the line with 14 points on efficient 3-point shooting (4-9 from deep), nearly doubling her season usage rate at 25% and playing a team-high 32 minutes in an extended role.

Marine Johannes Under 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −156 · bet_clv:313421 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · unexplained · actual 5 · 30.6 min · started

Olivia Nelson-Ododa Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.50ubet −200 · bet_clv:313418 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.6% · actual 0 · 28.0 min · started

Pauline Astier Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.79ubet −127 · bet_clv:313416 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-15T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · actual 0 · 25.8 min · started

Data fetches · 55

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 60 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 61 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 169 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 189 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 199 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 445 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 450 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 133 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 824 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 976 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 840 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 842 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 443 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1062 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1098 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1107 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1162 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1165 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1175 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1183 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1241 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1294 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1323 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1371 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.