WNBA · Finalupdated 04:51 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

CHI expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 177 points · odds to win: CHI 1.70, SEA 2.22

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 19:58 UTC

CHI 82 – SEA 80

Final · 0 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 0 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

J. Melbourne · Under 5.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.89 · last price before start 1.69Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.89 · Our price was 6.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.69, 374 min ago

First offered at 1.89 by Pinnacle (Sun 05:43 UTC); latest 2.58 at Pinnacle (Sun 20:59 UTC). The line moved from 5.5 to 4.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 1.60 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

D. Carrington · Under 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.96 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying SEA

SNatasha Cloud · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 20 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 22 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 15 actual

SJacy Sheldon · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

SAzura Stevens · 20 min expected

points 11.5 → 3 actual

DiJonai Carrington · 25 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 7 actual

Aicha Coulibaly · 10 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Williams (17 expected minutes) · Jaquez (10 min) · Banham (10 min)

Seattle Stormplaying CHI

SDominique Malonga · 29 min expected

points 20.5 → 19 actual

SJade Melbourne · 29 min expected

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 17 actual

SFlau'jae Johnson · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 5 actual

SJordan Horston · 24 min expected

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Awa Fam · 21 min expected

points 7.5 → 14 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Cooke (18 expected minutes) · Samuelson (10 min) · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 04:51 UTC

Who is out

Hiedeman · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 32, 31 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Thierry · did not play last game

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Taylor · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 22:15 UTC) · 24, 25 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 21:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

7 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Coulibaly, Banham, Jaquez, Dolson, Samuelson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Cloud: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Sheldon: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 19.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.3 more than usual

Carrington: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 18.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Horston: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 16.4 in the last 5 games, about 7.6 more than usual

Melbourne: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 21.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Johnson: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 32.4 in the last 5 games, about 7.4 fewer than usual

Fam: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 174 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Hiedeman out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Thierry out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Diggins out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Taylor out (Thu 22:15 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 2 picks won0 won, 2 lost · −2.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.9% higher than the last before the start · 8 lines checked, 6 scored but not picked · checked Tue 21:52 UTC

DiJonai Carrington · rebounds 3.5 → 7 · 3.5 above the line · played 13.8 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 1.96 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Jade Melbourne · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.3 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.89 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

11 other players with a posted line

Ezi Magbegor · points 7.5 → 17 · 9.5 above the line · played 25 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 20 · 9.5 above the line · played 33.9 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.01

Awa Fam · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (21 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.97

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 27.7 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Aicha Coulibaly · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 13.9 min (10 expected) · no final price

Jordan Horston · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 9.1 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 5 · 9.5 below the line · played 30.2 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.08

Jacy Sheldon · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.4 min (25 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Courtney Vandersloot · points 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Kamilla Cardoso · points 14.5 → 22 · 7.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Dominique Malonga · points 20.5 → 19 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.7 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.99, Under 1.75

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs CHI · last 16 games · SEA leads · SEA record 9–7 · average score 85.1–81.9 · SEA has won by 3.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

16 Aug · CHI 82 at SEA 80SEA lost

10 Aug · CHI 88 at SEA 97SEA won

15 Jul · SEA 90 at CHI 95SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.0+1.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 1.5, expected total 178.5 (Sun 02:07 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 2.5, expected total 177 (Sun 19:58 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Jade Melbourne · U 5.5 assists−112value_edge_pct +5.64 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

DiJonai Carrington · U 3.5 rebounds−104value_edge_pct −4.10 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 8

Aicha Coulibaly Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.57ubet −175 · bet_clv:323369 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.7% · actual 2 · 13.9 min · bench

DiJonai Carrington Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −104 → close −102 · CLV −0.5¢ · bet_clv:320310 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · bad_price · actual 7 · 13.8 min · benchCarrington doubled the rebound projection by grabbing 7 boards in 14 minutes, nearly doubling her expected rate despite a poor 3-13 shooting night that kept her on the floor for limited opportunities. Her aggressive rebounding activity—accumulating boards at a 3.0-per-36 pace—overcame the under's assumption of more typical output.

Azura Stevens Over 1.5 ASTWIN +0.56ubet −180 → close −175 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:320309 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 3 · 27.7 min · startedStevens delivered the playmaking despite a brutal 1-7 shooting night, recording 3 assists in 28 minutes as the team's primary ball-mover from the forward spot. Her low usage (12%) and inefficient scoring kept her volume down offensively, but her facilitation role remained intact enough to clear the low bar.

Jordan Horston Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.55ubet −182 · bet_clv:320311 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.6% · actual 0 · 9.1 min · bench · excused

Jade Melbourne Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −189 · bet_clv:320307 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.4% · unexplained · actual 5 · 35.3 min · started

Natasha Cloud Over 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −152 → close −176 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:320308 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 33.9 min · startedCloud's assist total was capped by her ball-dominant scoring role (23% usage, 20 points on 12 FG attempts) and four turnovers in 34 minutes, leaving limited opportunity for playmaking despite solid efficiency. The over-reliance on her as a scorer rather than a facilitator kept her well short of the 5.5 assist line.

Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −112 → close −144 · CLV +6.2¢ · bet_clv:320306 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 6 · 35.3 min · startedMelbourne pushed exactly one assist over the line despite inefficient scoring (4-13 FG, 38% TS) by logging 35 minutes and maintaining ball-movement responsibility in a game that stayed competitive enough to keep her facilitating throughout.

Ezi Magbegor Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −150 → close −141 · CLV −1.5¢ · bet_clv:320312 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-16T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.4% · bad_price · actual 1 · 25.0 min · startedMagbegor's playmaking dried up despite efficient scoring (7-12 FG), finishing with just 1 assist on 26% usage—she was primarily a scorer and rim-runner rather than a facilitator in this game, and 3 turnovers on minimal ball-handling volume further limited her assist opportunities.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 33 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 37 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 156 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 185 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 201 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 209 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 226 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 120 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 457 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 545 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 758 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1062 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2624 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 31 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 112 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 525 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 526 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 527 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 526 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 531 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 534 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 601 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 607 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.