WNBA · Finalupdated 08:43 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

GSV expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 161.5 points · odds to win: DAL 3.08, GSV 1.40

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 00:35 UTC

DAL 70 – GSV 78

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Ogunbowale · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.72 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.72 · Our price was 2.2% lower than the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 1.79, 25 min ago

First offered at 2.16 by Pinnacle (Mon 13:47 UTC); latest 1.79 at Pinnacle (Tue 01:37 UTC). The line moved from 3.5 to 2.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying GSV

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 21 actual

SAlanna Smith · 32 min expected

points 9.5 → 13 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SJessica Shepard · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 4 actual

Odyssey Sims · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (20 expected minutes) · Kuier (19 min) · +3 more

Golden State Valkyriesplaying DAL

SVeronica Burton · 29 min expected

points 13.5 → 16 actual

SKayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 7 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 23 min expected

points 9.5 → 5 actual

SGabby Williams · 22 min expected

points 12.5 → 23 actual

SKiah Stokes · 20 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Janelle Salaun · 18 min expected

points 10.5 → 10 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 18 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Charles (22 expected minutes) · Chen (13 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 08:43 UTC

Who is out

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

James · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 13, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

C. Williams (DAL) · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 1, 6 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 7, 5 and 7 min in the last 3 games

Yueru · did not play last game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Yueru, Sutton, Salaun, Hayes) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Smith: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 21.5 in the last 5 games, about 10.5 more than usual

Shepard: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 29.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 fewer than usual

Sims: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 10.3 in the last 5 games, about 13.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 26 of the 174 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: James out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: C. Williams (DAL) out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Yueru out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.72 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.2% lower than the last before the start · 5 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Thu 02:52 UTC

Arike Ogunbowale · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 37 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked

11 other players with a posted line

Odyssey Sims · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 12.3 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Kiah Stokes · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.8 min (20 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.79, Under —

Gabby Williams · points 12.5 → 23 · 10.5 above the line · played 32.2 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.77

Jessica Shepard · points 11.5 → 4 · 7.5 below the line · played 25.7 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 15 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.81

Alanna Smith · points 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.9 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 16 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.5 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.9 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.94

Paige Bueckers · points 18.5 → 21 · 2.5 above the line · played 33.5 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.76

Tiffany Hayes · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.6 min (18 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.28, Under —

Janelle Salaun · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.8 min (18 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs DAL · last 7 games · GSV leads · GSV record 6–1 · average score 84.9–77.6 · GSV has won by 7.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Aug · DAL 70 at GSV 78GSV won

7 Aug · GSV 94 at DAL 76GSV won

17 Jun · DAL 80 at GSV 91GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.3 points · 33.3 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.8% of shots · 33.1% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.3 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0−1.8 vs average

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 6, expected total 162.5 (Mon 04:11 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 6, expected total 161.5 (Tue 00:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Arike Ogunbowale · O 2.5 assists−138value_edge_pct −0.14 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 5

Paige Bueckers Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −158 → close −158 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:328682 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 2 · 33.5 min · startedBueckers took on heavy offensive usage (40%) in a high-volume role, tallying 21 points on 34 minutes, but grabbed just 2 boards—well below the 4.5 line—as she operated primarily as a perimeter scorer rather than a rebounder. Her 7 turnovers and 4 fouls further limited her ability to crash the glass and contribute on the glass in a -10 performance.

Odyssey Sims Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close −192 · CLV +4.4¢ · bet_clv:328679 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.5% · actual 2 · 12.3 min · benchSims' restricted role limited her playmaking opportunities, as she logged just 12 minutes with 12% usage and failed to generate scoring threats (0-3 FG, 0 pts), which naturally depressed her assist total.

Jessica Shepard Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −149 → close −174 · CLV +3.7¢ · bet_clv:328683 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 25.7 min · startedShepard's playmaking dried up despite playing 26 minutes—she recorded just 2 assists on minimal usage (13%), suggesting the offense ran through other options and limited her ball-handling opportunities. Her poor shooting efficiency (1-4 FG, 35% TS%) likely kept her from getting into rhythm as a facilitator.

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 ASTWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −126 · CLV −2.2¢ · bet_clv:328680 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 3 · 37.0 min · startedOgunbowale hit the over on a modest line by playing heavy minutes (37) and maintaining her typical playmaking role, dishing 3 assists despite shooting inefficiently (5-13 FG, 1-7 3PT).

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.61ubet −164 → close −140 · CLV −3.8¢ · bet_clv:328681 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.5% · actual 4 · 37.0 min · startedOgunbowale grabbed 4 rebounds in 37 minutes of heavy usage, exceeding the 2.5 line despite mediocre 5-13 shooting, as she stayed on the floor and got opportunities on the glass throughout the game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 24 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 115 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 126 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 134 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 98 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 408 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 607 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 870 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 737 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 739 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 740 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 887 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 945 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 948 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 979 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 982 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1034 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.