WNBA · Finalupdated 14:52 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 179.5 points · odds to win: ATL 2.40, LVA 1.61

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 23:35 UTC

ATL 97 – LVA 82

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Smith · Over 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.65Won +0.77 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.77 · Our price was 4.1% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.89 by Pinnacle (Tue 05:44 UTC); latest 2.09 at Pinnacle (Wed 00:38 UTC). The 6.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying LVA

SAllisha Gray · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 21 actual

SRhyne Howard · 34 min expected

points 17.5 → 23 actual

SAngel Reese · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 21 actual

SJordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 17 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 27 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Okot (16 expected minutes) · Borlase (12 min) · +2 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying ATL

SA'ja Wilson · 34 min expected

points 24.5 → 27 actual

SChelsea Gray · 34 min expected

points 11.5 → 13 actual

SJackie Young · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 24 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 28 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

Jewell Loyd · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (15 expected minutes) · Talbot (10 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 14:52 UTC

Who is out

Out Evans · earlier listed as available (changed Thu 19:30 UTC) · 15, 4 and 14 min in the last 3 games

Pissott · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:00 UTC) · 3, 4 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Bell · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 2, 3 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Sherrod · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 3, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

May not play Parker-Tyus · concussion (concussion) · LVA

Canada · likely to play · illness · ATL

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Howard, Gray, Wilson, Young, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 117 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Evans out (Thu 19:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Pissott out (Sat 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bell out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sherrod out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 0 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.77 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.1% higher than the last before the start · 3 lines checked, 2 scored but not picked · checked Fri 01:52 UTC

NaLyssa Smith · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.2 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 5.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 26.2 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 17 · 6.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 38.7 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 23 · 5.5 above the line · played 38.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.81

Jackie Young · points 18.5 → 24 · 5.5 above the line · played 34.7 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 33 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.96

Naz Hillmon · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.9 min (27 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

A'ja Wilson · points 24.5 → 27 · 2.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.07

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 33 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs ATL · last 16 games · LVA leads · LVA record 13–3 · average score 88.2–80.4 · LVA has won by 7.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

18 Aug · ATL 97 at LVA 82LVA lost

3 Aug · LVA 109 at ATL 87LVA won

17 May · LVA 85 at ATL 84LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.5 points · 31.0 rebounds · 19.2 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.9% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.4 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up86.0 points · 33.6 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.4% of shots · 34.7% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.5 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−2.6 vs average

LVA gives up 86.0 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 3.5, expected total 179.5 (Tue 02:38 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 3, expected total 179.5 (Tue 23:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

NaLyssa Smith · O 5.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −1.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

NaLyssa Smith Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −154 · CLV +4.1¢ · bet_clv:331931 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.8% · actual 6 · 22.2 min · startedSmith grabbed 6 rebounds in 22 minutes, hitting the over by one despite modest usage (16%), as she stayed active on the glass and chipped in 3 blocks to stay involved on the boards.

Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −149 → close −140 · CLV −1.5¢ · bet_clv:331930 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · bad_price · actual 3 · 38.8 min · startedHoward played heavy minutes (39) and scored efficiently (23 pts), but her low usage rate (26%) and primary scoring role limited playmaking opportunities, resulting in just 3 assists despite the volume. She committed 4 fouls that may have caused some caution late, but the assist miss was fundamentally driven by her offensive-centric game plan rather than foul trouble.

Jewell Loyd Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.63ubet −159 · bet_clv:331929 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 3 · 26.2 min · started

Data fetches · 47

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 48 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 61 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 178 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 186 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 203 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 274 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 532 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 368 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 425 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 583 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 644 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 645 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 653 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 668 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 669 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 744 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 937 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 797 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 824 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1020 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.