WNBA · Finalupdated 00:06 UTC

New York Liberty vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

NYL expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 179 points · odds to win: NYL 1.55, CHI 2.54

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 23:35 UTC

NYL 86 – CHI 93

Final · 4 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 4 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Cloud · Over 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.88 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.88 · Our price was 3.6% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.98 by Pinnacle (Tue 05:44 UTC); latest 1.97 at Pinnacle (Wed 00:39 UTC). The 10.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

B. Stewart · Under 22.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.65Won +0.83 per 1 staked

K. Cardoso · Over 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.77 per 1 staked

J. Jones · Over 2.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.65Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Vandersloot · Over 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.71Won +0.74 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying CHI

SBreanna Stewart · 32 min expected

points 22.5 → 22 actual

SJonquel Jones · 31 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 25 min expected

points 16.5 → 18 actual

SRebecca Allen · 24 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

SPauline Astier · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Marine Johannes · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 3 actual

Han Xu · 16 min expected

points 6.5 → 12 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fauthoux (15 expected minutes) · Gardner (15 min)

Chicago Skyplaying NYL

SNatasha Cloud · 31 min expected

points 9.5 → 35 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 13.5 → 17 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 25 min expected

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

SAzura Stevens · 23 min expected

points 11.5 → 12 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Carrington (18 expected minutes) · Sheldon (18 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 00:06 UTC

Who is out

Out Coulibaly · earlier listed as may not play (changed Tue 23:00 UTC) · 15, 15 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Fiebich · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 23:15 UTC) · 16, 32 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

May not play Ionescu · left foot · NYL

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

May not play Taylor · left groin · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 01:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Fauthoux, Gardner, Taylor, Sheldon, Carrington) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Jones: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 24.7 in the last 5 games, about 6.3 more than usual

Allen: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 17.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Johannes: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 12.0 in the last 5 games, about 10.0 more than usual

Cloud: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 23.3 in the last 5 games, about 7.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 118 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Coulibaly out (Tue 23:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fiebich out (Sat 23:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 4 of 5 picks won4 won, 1 lost · +2.22 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.7% higher than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Fri 01:52 UTC

Natasha Cloud · points 9.5 → 35 · 25.5 above the line · played 34.7 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 1.88 → Won +0.88 per 1 staked

Courtney Vandersloot · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.9 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.74 → Won +0.74 per 1 staked

Kamilla Cardoso · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.7 min (27 expected)

Pick: Over 13.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked

Jonquel Jones · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 6.5 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.74 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: one-sided game or foul trouble · Result skewed by game events

Breanna Stewart · points 22.5 → 22 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (32 expected)

Pick: Under 22.5 at 1.83 → Won +0.83 per 1 staked

6 other players with a posted line

Rebecca Allen · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 32 min (24 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.39, Under 1.55

Han Xu · points 6.5 → 12 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.5 min (16 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.72

Marine Johannes · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 20.9 min (22 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 18 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.7 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 19.2 min (20 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Azura Stevens · points 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.2 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · CHI record 9–14 · average score 82.5–83.9 · CHI has lost by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · CHI 66 at NYL 85CHI lost

18 Aug · NYL 86 at CHI 93CHI won

22 Jul · CHI 94 at NYL 95CHI lost

17 Jun · NYL 96 at CHI 95CHI lost

11 Sep · NYL 91 at CHI 86CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.6 points · 31.5 rebounds · 21.4 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 34.3% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.6 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 181.5 (Tue 02:38 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 4, expected total 179 (Tue 23:35 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Natasha Cloud · O 9.5 points−114value_edge_pct −2.81 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Breanna Stewart · U 22.5 points−120value_edge_pct −3.58 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Courtney Vandersloot · O 4.5 assists−136value_edge_pct −3.65 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Kamilla Cardoso · O 13.5 points−130value_edge_pct −3.90 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13

Jonquel Jones · O 2.5 assists−135value_edge_pct −4.22 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

Natasha Cloud Over 9.5 PTSWIN +0.88ubet −114 → close −132 · CLV +3.6¢ · bet_clv:331244 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · actual 35 · 34.7 min · startedCloud was unstoppable on an efficient night, shooting 13-21 from the field (62%) with a 74% true shooting percentage to easily clear the 9.5-point line. Her 35-minute workload and 30% usage rate gave her plenty of volume to capitalize on elite scoring efficiency.

Courtney Vandersloot Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −136 → close −140 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:331249 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.5% · actual 6 · 26.9 min · startedVandersloot's 6 assists exceeded the 4.5 line despite modest scoring (8 pts on 33% shooting), as she logged 27 minutes and maintained her role as primary facilitator with zero turnovers in a game where her playmaking was the priority over scoring volume.

Kamilla Cardoso Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:331248 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.3% · actual 17 · 31.7 min · startedCardoso's 50% field-goal efficiency (6-12 FG) paired with her 71% free-throw shooting (5-7 FT) and 32 minutes of playing time easily cleared the 13.5-point line, as she also dominated the glass with 12 rebounds on 20% usage.

Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −135 → close −154 · CLV +3.2¢ · bet_clv:331246 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.0% · blowout_foul_trouble · actual 2 · 6.5 min · bench · excusedJones played only 6 minutes due to early foul trouble, limiting her involvement as a passer and falling one assist short of the over. With minimal court time, she had fewer opportunities to rack up assists despite efficient shooting.

Azura Stevens Over 5.5 REBWIN +0.68ubet −147 → close −160 · CLV +2.0¢ · bet_clv:331247 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.5% · actual 7 · 23.2 min · startedStevens pulled down 7 rebounds in 23 minutes, exceeding the 5.5 line by staying active on the glass despite modest usage (18%), with a +14 rating suggesting favorable matchups on the boards.

Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −154 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:331245 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.6% · actual 22 · 34.7 min · startedStewart's efficient 8-13 shooting kept her just below the line at 22 points, as her 22% usage rate—indicative of balanced offensive distribution—limited her shot volume despite playing the full 35 minutes. The under's narrow margin of victory hinged on her inability to generate additional scoring opportunities despite solid shooting fundamentals.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 53 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 62 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 176 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 205 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 218 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 235 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 237 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 105 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 577 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 686 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 202 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 687 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 261 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 732 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 742 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 968 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 346 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 369 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 745 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 746 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 752 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 754 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 755 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 820 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.