WNBA · Finalupdated 00:29 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

MIN expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 162.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.69, GSV 2.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Thu 01:00 UTC

MIN 77 – GSV 66

Final · 5 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 5 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Over 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.02 · last price before start 2.01Won +1.02 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.02 · Our price was 0.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 2.01, 0 min ago

First offered at 2.02 by Pinnacle (Wed 14:38 UTC); latest 2.01 at Pinnacle (Thu 01:00 UTC). The 14.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

N. Collier · Over 17.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.80 per 1 staked

K. McBride · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.77 per 1 staked

T. Hayes · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.94 per 1 staked

J. Salaun · Over 10.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying GSV

SKayla McBride · 33 min expected

points 14.5 → 20 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 18 actual

SOlivia Miles · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 20 actual

SCourtney Williams · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 9 actual

SNatasha Howard · 27 min expected

points 10.5 → 8 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coffey (15 expected minutes) · Caldwell (12 min) · +3 more

Golden State Valkyriesplaying MIN

SVeronica Burton · 29 min expected

points 12.5 → 14 actual

SKayla Thornton · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 5 actual

SGabby Williams · 24 min expected

points 13.5 → 10 actual

SKiah Stokes · 23 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 8 actual

Janelle Salaun · 19 min expected

points 10.5 → 15 actual

Tiffany Hayes · 18 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Charles (20 expected minutes) · Chen (12 min) · Amihere (8 min)

What could go wrong

updated 00:29 UTC

Who is out

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Amihere · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Delaere · did not play last game

Bibby · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 02:00 UTC) · 3, 11 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Buenavida · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:30 UTC)

Joklova · did not play last game

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Thu 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Miles, Collier, McBride, Zandalasini, Charles) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Howard: expected to play 27 minutes, averaged 18.7 in the last 5 games, about 8.3 more than usual

Williams: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 24.9 in the last 5 games, about 6.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 22 of the 133 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Amihere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Delaere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out (Sat 02:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Buenavida out (Sat 21:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Joklova out · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 5 picks won5 won, 0 lost · +4.35 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.7% higher than the last before the start · 8 lines checked, 3 scored but not picked · checked Sat 02:52 UTC

Janelle Salaun · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (19 expected)

Pick: Over 10.5 at 1.81 → Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Tiffany Hayes · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 24.8 min (18 expected)

Pick: Over 8.5 at 1.94 → Won +0.94 per 1 staked

Kayla McBride · points 14.5 → 20 · 5.5 above the line · played 35.7 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 14.5 at 2.02 → Won +1.02 per 1 staked

Napheesa Collier · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.7 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 17.5 at 1.80 → Won +0.80 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 19 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.87

Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 10 · 3.5 below the line · played 31.5 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.78

Natasha Howard · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.7 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 29.9 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Courtney Williams · points 10.5 → 9 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.6 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.75

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 36 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.83

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 16.7 min (23 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.83

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 20 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.2 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs MIN · last 10 games · MIN leads · GSV record 1–9 · average score 72.2–80.5 · GSV has lost by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · GSV 80 at MIN 66GSV won

19 Aug · MIN 77 at GSV 66GSV lost

19 Jun · MIN 81 at GSV 75GSV lost

4 Jun · GSV 84 at MIN 87GSV lost

17 Sep · MIN 75 at GSV 74GSV lost

14 Sep · GSV 72 at MIN 101GSV lost

11 Sep · GSV 53 at MIN 72GSV lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.8 points · 33.3 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.6% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.6 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.1 points · 32.7 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.4% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.8 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.1−3.2 vs average

GSV gives up 75.1 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.1−12.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 1.5, expected total 164.5 (Wed 01:11 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 2, expected total 162.5 (Thu 01:00 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 6

Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −1.60 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Kayla McBride · O 14.5 points+102value_edge_pct −2.67 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Tiffany Hayes · O 8.5 points−106value_edge_pct −2.92 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Janelle Salaun · O 10.5 points−123value_edge_pct −3.79 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Napheesa Collier · O 17.5 points−125value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Kayla McBride · O 13.5 points−124value_edge_pct −4.80 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 8

Olivia Miles Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.62ubet −162 → close −162 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:336744 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.8% · actual 5 · 30.2 min · startedMiles secured 5 rebounds in 30 minutes of heavy involvement, benefiting from Notre Dame's offensive rebounding opportunities in a blowout win (+9). Her efficient 8-10 shooting and sustained floor time gave her multiple chances to crash the glass and clear the over.

Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:336747 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 1 · 35.7 min · startedMcBride was a perimeter scorer tonight, taking 36 minutes but grabbing just 1 rebound despite high usage (24%), as her role remained outside-focused with 13 shot attempts and seven 3-pointers attempted.

Kayla McBride Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.81ubet −124 → close −113 · CLV −2.3¢ · bet_clv:336748 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 20 · 35.7 min · startedMcBride's efficient 6-13 shooting night (46% FG) combined with perfect free-throw shooting (5-6) easily cleared the 13.5-point line, fueled by 36 minutes of floor time and 24% usage in a game Las Vegas controlled throughout.

Napheesa Collier Over 17.5 PTSWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −128 · CLV +0.6¢ · bet_clv:336746 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 18 · 36.7 min · startedCollier's 8-8 free-throw shooting compensated for a modest 5-12 field goal night, pushing her to 18 points and over the 17.5 line in 37 minutes of heavy usage.

Janelle Salaun Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close −128 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:336750 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.1% · actual 15 · 24.3 min · startedSalaun delivered efficient scoring with a 6-13 FG line (46%) to clear 10.5, getting 15 points in 24 minutes with solid 54% true-shooting despite going 2-6 from three. Her 25% usage rate was enough to generate the over in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble (2 PF) and maintained consistent offensive involvement.

Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −114 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:336745 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 12 · 24.8 min · startedHayes cruised over 8.5 by getting 25 minutes of run and converting 2-of-2 free throws to supplement her 5-12 field goal shooting. Her 26% usage rate provided enough offensive touches to accumulate 12 points despite a modest 47% true shooting night.

Kayla McBride Over 14.5 PTSWIN +1.02ubet +102 → close +101 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:336749 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · actual 20 · 35.7 min · startedMcBride's efficient 46% field goal shooting and perfect 5-for-6 free-throw night pushed her well past the 14.5-point line, with high volume usage and 36 minutes of playing time giving her plenty of scoring opportunities.

Janelle Salaun Over 0.5 ASTWIN +0.38ubet −265 → close −265 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:338768 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 70.4% · actual 3 · 24.3 min · started

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 57 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 175 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 196 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 219 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 244 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 284 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 114 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 473 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 532 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 344 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 464 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 774 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 776 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 777 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 778 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 778 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1143 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 832 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 938 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1061 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1115 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1127 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1153 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1166 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1252 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.