WNBA · Finalupdated 14:52 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Washington Mystics

at Washington Mystics

WAS expected to win by about 9.5 · both teams together expected to score about 170.5 points · odds to win: TOR 1.01, WAS 1.19

Game odds from 2 bookmakers, Tue 19:58 UTC

TOR 82 – WAS 93

Final · 3 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 3 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, WAS = Washington Mystics.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Rice · Under 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 2.04Won +1.17 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.17 · Our price was 2.9% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 2.04, 29 min ago

First offered at 1.56 by FanDuel (Wed 16:42 UTC); latest 2.15 at BetOnline.ag (Wed 23:27 UTC). The line moved from 4.5 to 3.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

A. Morrow · Under 12.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.75Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

I. Harrison · Under 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.87 · last price before start 1.68Won +0.87 per 1 staked

K. Rice · Under 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.70Won +0.79 per 1 staked

L. Betts · Over 4.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.62Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying WAS

SKiki Rice · 31 min expected

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

SAneesah Morrow · 29 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 28 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 22 min expected

points 13.5 → 2 actual

Brittney Sykes · Out · left foot-load management (foot)

points 9.5 → did not play, so no result

Marina Mabrey · Out · right hamstring

points 19.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allemand (31 expected minutes) · Nurse (22 min) · +4 more

Washington Mysticsplaying TOR

SSonia Citron · 33 min expected

assists 4.5 → 6 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

assists 2.5 → 2 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 28 min expected

points 15.5 → 21 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Onyenwere (23 expected minutes) · McMahon (22 min) · +6 more

What could go wrong

updated 14:52 UTC

Who is out

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed Thu 18:15 UTC) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Out Mabrey · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Wed 22:00 UTC) · 29, 31 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 17, 29 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 2 players (Harrison, Nurse) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Morrow: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 19.5 in the last 5 games, about 9.5 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 64 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Conde out (Thu 18:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mabrey out (Wed 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 3 of 5 picks won3 won, 2 lost · +0.83 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.7% higher than the last before the start · 13 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked Fri 23:52 UTC

Isabelle Harrison · points 13.5 → 2 · 11.5 below the line · played 23.3 min (22 expected)

Pick: Under 13.5 at 1.87 → Won +0.87 per 1 staked

Kiki Rice · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.5 min (31 expected)

Pick: Under 4.5 at 2.17 → Won +1.17 per 1 staked

Aneesah Morrow · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.6 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 12.5 at 1.93 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

6 other players with a posted line

Kiki Iriafen · points 15.5 → 21 · 5.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (28 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Sonia Citron · assists 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.6 min (33 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.68, Under 2.12

Laura Juskaite · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (28 expected) · no final price

Shakira Austin · assists 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 22.9 min (30 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.95

Brittney Sykes · points 9.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Marina Mabrey · points 19.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

WAS vs TOR · last 4 games · WAS leads · WAS record 4–0 · average score 81.5–73.5 · WAS has won by 8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Aug · TOR 82 at WAS 93WAS won

14 Jul · WAS 79 at TOR 62WAS won

12 Jun · TOR 85 at WAS 86WAS won

8 May · WAS 68 at TOR 65WAS won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

WAS gives up82.7 points · 30.1 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.8% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

WAS gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Nordic Bet first had WAS expected to win by 9.5, expected total 174.5 (Tue 03:09 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 9.5, expected total 170.5 (Tue 15:20 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 6

Lauren Betts · O 4.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct +4.15 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Aneesah Morrow · U 12.5 points−107value_edge_pct +3.00 · kelly 0.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kiki Rice · U 4.5 rebounds−126value_edge_pct +1.83 · kelly 0.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Isabelle Harrison · U 13.5 points−115value_edge_pct −1.54 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Kiki Rice · U 4.5 assists+117value_edge_pct −2.34 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Isabelle Harrison · U 12.5 points−109value_edge_pct −3.29 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 13

Cotie McMahon Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.59ubet −169 → close −172 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:335850 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 60.0% · actual 4 · 18.1 min · benchMcMahon's dismal 1-7 shooting kept her on the court for board-hunting opportunities, and she grabbed 4 rebounds in 18 minutes to clear the over despite a brutal 14% true shooting night. Her inability to score actually worked in the bet's favor, as she stayed active on the glass rather than riding the bench during a low-offensive-output game.

Kiki Rice Under 4.5 ASTWIN +1.17ubet +117 → close +104 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:335852 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.0% · actual 2 · 24.5 min · startedRice's shot-creation was self-contained—she scored 19 points on 25% usage while distributing just 2 assists, relying on her own 82% true shooting rather than facilitating for teammates. Limited court time (24 minutes) and low ball-movement role kept her playmaking volume well below the line.

Cotie McMahon Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.52ubet −194 → close −162 · CLV −4.2¢ · bet_clv:335851 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.9% · actual 2 · 18.1 min · benchMcMahon's inefficiency and limited offensive rhythm—shooting just 1-for-7 with 4 turnovers in 18 minutes—left few opportunities to generate assists, keeping her at exactly 2 despite her 26% usage rate. Her struggles scoring (14% TS%) and ball-handling issues naturally suppressed her playmaking ceiling.

Isabelle Harrison Under 12.5 PTSWIN +0.92ubet −109 → close −106 · CLV −0.7¢ · bet_clv:335858 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedHarrison's 1-6 shooting (17% FG) and 0-4 free-throw line combined with modest 18% usage to keep her well below the 12.5-point line despite playing 23 minutes. A brutal 13% true shooting percentage—driven by poor shot selection and accuracy—made it impossible to reach double figures even with moderate playing time.

Kiki Rice Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.79ubet −126 → close −143 · CLV +3.1¢ · bet_clv:337880 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · actual 0 · 24.5 min · startedRice's elite offensive efficiency (82% TS on 25% usage) kept her volume concentrated in scoring rather than rebounding opportunities, and she logged only 24 minutes with 4 fouls, limiting her glass-hunting potential in a role where she prioritized perimeter shooting over the boards.

Isabelle Harrison Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.61ubet −164 → close −160 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:335857 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedHarrison's poor offensive efficiency (1-for-6 shooting, 13% TS%) limited her ball-handling and playmaking opportunities, while her modest 23 minutes and 18% usage kept her involvement low enough to stay under the 2.5 assist threshold at exactly 2 dimes.

Lauren Betts Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.48ubet −209 → close −209 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:337869 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.0% · actual 7 · 21.7 min · started

Kiki Rice Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close −207 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:337881 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.2% · actual 0 · 24.5 min · startedRice was a pure scorer off the bench (19 pts on elite 82% TS%), but logged only 24 minutes and recorded zero rebounds despite 25% usage, staying out of the glass entirely on a night where her role was strictly perimeter-oriented. The under cashed because she never materialized as a rebounder—all her production came through shooting, not crash-and-bang plays.

Aneesah Morrow Under 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −107 → close −133 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:335856 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 13 · 22.6 min · startedMorrow narrowly cleared the under despite inefficient 4-13 shooting (31% FG), getting over the line on 3-5 free-throw shooting and 23 minutes of run in a game where Chicago needed her scoring off the bench. The under missed by just one point despite below-average efficiency, as her free-throw volume and consistent offensive touches kept her just above the number.

Isabelle Harrison Under 13.5 PTSWIN +0.87ubet −115 → close −147 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:335859 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 2 · 23.3 min · startedHarrison was a non-factor on offense, shooting just 1-for-6 from the field and 0-for-4 from the free-throw line while posting a 13% true shooting percentage—well below what's needed to reach 13.5 points even with her 23 minutes and 18% usage rate. Her offensive struggles were compounded by poor shot selection and execution, leaving her stranded at just 2 points despite moderate playing time.

Kiki Iriafen Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.45ubet −222 · bet_clv:335855 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.7% · actual 0 · 29.2 min · started

Kiki Rice Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −153 → close −166 · CLV +1.9¢ · bet_clv:335853 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.9% · actual 2 · 24.5 min · startedRice's playmaking was non-existent despite solid scoring efficiency (19 pts on 82% TS), finishing with just 2 assists on 24 minutes of play—well below the 5.5 line. Her 25% usage rate and limited ball-handling role in the offense kept her assists total well short of the threshold.

Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −127 → close −162 · CLV +5.9¢ · bet_clv:335854 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 21.7 min · startedBetts fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (3-5 FG), hampered by limited offensive opportunities with just 13% usage and 22 minutes of action. The low-volume workload and game flow prevented her from reaching the boards at the necessary rate to clear the 4.5 threshold.

Data fetches · 46

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 66 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 77 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 181 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 187 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 194 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 202 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 242 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 100 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 132 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 414 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 192 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 505 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 506 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 554 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 571 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 589 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 858 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 616 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 662 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 666 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 677 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 840 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 859 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.