WNBA · Finalupdated 11:38 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

GSV expected to win by about 6.5 · both teams together expected to score about 164 points · odds to win: GSV 1.37, CHI 3.22

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 21:53 UTC

GSV 70 – CHI 73

Final · 5 of 7 picks won

7 picks checked: 5 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Cardoso · Over 13.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.81Won +0.98 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.98 · Our price was 4.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.81, 54540 min ago

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Fri 12:04 UTC); latest 1.98 at Pinnacle (Fri 21:53 UTC). The line moved from 13.5 to 14.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

N. Cloud · Over 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.97 per 1 staked

C. Vandersloot · Over 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.93 per 1 staked

C. Vandersloot · Over 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.83 per 1 staked

S. Taylor · Over 12.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 2.04Won +0.81 per 1 staked

K. Thornton · Over 6.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.75Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Vandersloot · Over 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.75 · last price before start 1.63Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

No player lines yet · 20 players listed

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying CHI

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burton (31 expected minutes) · Williams (28 min) · +8 more

Chicago Skyplaying GSV

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Cloud (32 expected minutes) · Vandersloot (28 min) · +8 more

What could go wrong

updated 11:38 UTC

Who is out

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Maly · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 19, 22 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 21:00 UTC) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 4, 4 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Fingall · did not play last game

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Thornton, Zandalasini, Coulibaly, Sheldon) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 99 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maly out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out (Tue 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fingall out · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 2 lost · +2.52 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.5% higher than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

No player lines were posted in this game.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs GSV · last 6 games · GSV leads · CHI record 2–4 · average score 69.3–78.3 · CHI has lost by 9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Aug · GSV 70 at CHI 73CHI won

12 Aug · CHI 71 at GSV 91CHI lost

13 May · CHI 69 at GSV 63CHI won

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.2 points · 32.6 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.5% of shots · 32.6% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.2 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.1−11.9 vs average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 6.5, expected total 164 (Thu 20:24 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 21:53 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 11

Natasha Cloud · O 9.5 points−103value_edge_pct +3.00 · kelly 0.75u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Kayla Thornton · O 6.5 points−125value_edge_pct +2.96 · kelly 0.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Natasha Cloud · O 10.5 points+110value_edge_pct +1.08 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Kamilla Cardoso · O 13.5 points−102value_edge_pct +0.91 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Courtney Vandersloot · O 2.5 rebounds−134value_edge_pct −1.39 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Courtney Vandersloot · O 7.5 points−120value_edge_pct −3.31 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Sydney Taylor · O 12.5 points−123value_edge_pct −3.63 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20

Sydney Taylor · O 14.5 points+122value_edge_pct −3.98 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23

Courtney Vandersloot · O 4.5 assists−108value_edge_pct −4.12 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 24

Sydney Taylor · O 13.5 points−101value_edge_pct −4.62 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 28

Kamilla Cardoso · O 12.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.68 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 29

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +122 → close +117 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:345701 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 14 · 18.4 min · bench

Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTSWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close +104 · CLV −6.1¢ · bet_clv:345702 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 14 · 18.4 min · benchTaylor's efficient 5-9 shooting night (78% TS) and hot three-point stroke (4-6 from deep) easily cleared the modest 12.5-point bar despite limited 18-minute usage. Her 30% usage rate was enough to generate 14 points on elite efficiency, delivering the over by two points.

Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −131 · CLV +0.2¢ · bet_clv:345692 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.9% · actual 14 · 35.2 min · started

Courtney Vandersloot Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −134 → close −158 · CLV +4.0¢ · bet_clv:345693 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 1 · 28.7 min · startedVandersloot grabbed just 1 rebound despite playing 29 minutes, well below the 2.5 line—a stark departure from her usual rebounding activity and likely attributable to limited offensive rebounding opportunities and her primary role as a floor-running guard rather than a glass-cleaner.

Natasha Cloud Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −152 → close −160 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:345696 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 36.3 min · startedCloud fell one assist short despite heavy usage (36 min, 20% usage rate), held back by a quiet playmaking night—she recorded four turnovers and didn't generate the extra helper needed to push past 4.5.

Sydney Taylor Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.99ubet −101 → close −101 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:345700 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 14 · 18.4 min · benchTaylor cleared 13.5 on efficient shooting, hitting 5-of-9 from the field (55.6%) with a strong 4-of-6 night from three, despite playing only 18 minutes in a blowout where she didn't need high volume to reach the total.

Kamilla Cardoso Over 13.5 PTSWIN +0.98ubet −102 → close −123 · CLV +4.7¢ · bet_clv:345691 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 14 · 35.2 min · startedCardoso's 35 minutes and 25% usage rate gave her enough volume to clear 13.5, despite poor shooting (4-12 FG); she compensated at the free-throw line, where she went 6-11 to secure the over by a single point.

Courtney Vandersloot Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.93ubet −108 → close −114 · CLV +1.3¢ · bet_clv:345694 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · actual 5 · 28.7 min · startedVandersloot's 29 minutes of floor time and 22% usage rate provided sufficient opportunity to clear 4.5 assists, which she accomplished with 5 dimes despite shooting just 4-10 from the field. Her playmaking remained efficient even when her own shot wasn't falling, keeping her involved in the offense and delivering the over.

Natasha Cloud Over 10.5 PTSWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close +101 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:345697 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 17 · 36.3 min · startedCloud's perfect 5-5 from three combined with efficient 78% true shooting to easily clear the 10.5-point line, finishing at 17 points on 36 minutes and 20% usage.

Natasha Cloud Over 9.5 PTSWIN +0.97ubet −103 → close −126 · CLV +5.0¢ · bet_clv:345698 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 17 · 36.3 min · startedCloud's perfect 5-for-5 three-point shooting and 78% true shooting efficiency powered her well past the 9.5-point line in 36 minutes of play. Her 20% usage rate was modest, but elite efficiency from deep range—accounting for nearly 60% of her scoring—made the difference.

Kayla Thornton Over 6.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −125 → close −134 · CLV +1.7¢ · bet_clv:345699 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 0 · 19.1 min · benchThornton's OVER 6.5 missed badly as she went scoreless on just 2 shot attempts in 19 minutes, posting 0% TS and a 5% usage rate that left her virtually out of the offensive flow. The combination of limited touches and cold shooting (0-2 FG) made any scoring production impossible.

Courtney Vandersloot Over 7.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −120 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:345695 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 12 · 28.7 min · startedVandersloot's 29 minutes and elevated 22% usage rate gave her enough offensive opportunities to clear the line, and she converted 4-of-10 from the field for 12 points. Her efficient 2-2 free-throw shooting and 55% true shooting efficiency ensured she made the most of her touches despite a modest 40% overall field-goal rate.

Data fetches · 24

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 60 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 77 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 187 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 197 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 200 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 211 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 215 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 427 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 107 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 552 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 922 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 620 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 738 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 746 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 777 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 840 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 862 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 3756 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.