WNBA · FINAL · FRI, AUG 21, 7:30 PM

MIN @ WAS

Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics

← All WNBA games on 2026-08-21

+6.5

Spread (home)

165.5

Total

-286 / +213

Moneyline

Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:22 AM EDT

GAME BRIEF · START HERE

Start with what happened, then judge the process.

Minnesota Lynx at Washington Mystics is a completed-game review. Any call below is record-only.

REVIEW

Open the 2-minute projection guide

01 · PROP DECISIONS

What the evidence says

9 of 9 prop cards have eligible recent or player-opponent history. Each card explains whether that context supports, opposes, or is too thin.

02 · AVAILABILITY

What could break it

3 hard availability flags returned (Elena Buenavida, Liatu King, Napheesa Collier). Player-level observation times are unavailable, so verify the source report.

03 · MARKET MOVEMENT

What changed

42 unusual market lines: 20 above and 22 below players' typical closes. 4 signals withheld by availability or data-quality checks. Market movement is context, not an Over/Under pick.

MODEL UPDATES

The simple read.

What the model estimated, what changed, what was recorded alongside it, and whether an official bet exists.

HISTORICAL

PlayerStat

ViewingNO CURRENT ESTIMATE SHOWN · NOT ZEROFull-roster source · public view shows 1 players · sportsbooks not used

PLAIN-ENGLISH READ

Five things to know

R2 OF 2

01 · WHAT WE THINKNo comparable Olivia Miles forecast is exposed in this revision.

Not shown does not mean a zero projection or that the player left the roster. The record may be incomplete or hidden in this view.

02 · WHAT CHANGEDNo comparable Olivia Miles forecast is exposed in R2.

The earlier value is not carried forward. This may reflect incomplete capture or a limited viewer payload—not a zero projection or roster departure.

03 · WHAT WE OBSERVEDThe reason cannot be evaluated without this player's saved record.

This view does not infer a cause from missing data.

04 · BET STATUSHistorical record only — no current bet.

The record is retained for audit and grading, not as a live recommendation. Sportsbook data was not used in this research forecast.

05 · WHAT TO WATCH NEXTOfficial player result check is unavailable.

A separate official betting record may already be settled, but that does not score this forecast. No finalized player result is connected after the correction window, so forecast accuracy is withheld.

DECISION TIMELINE · IMMUTABLE RESEARCH REVISIONS

See how the read moved.

Follow every immutable full-roster forecast-state revision before books are required, inspect what the system knew at the exact freeze, and compare any two revisions. A state revision does not prove the numeric forecast changed; connectors report observed differences, not causality.

Full reasoning · always visible

PlayerStat

2 frozen revisionsFull-roster source · public view limited to 1 players · no market by design

→

Player left captureObserved difference only

OFFICIAL FORMULA LANErecord_only · OVER 3.5+120 · not_applicable

The stored formula record is shown beside the research history, not as an output caused by it.

SELECTED REVISION · R2 · SEMANTIC CHANGE

Olivia Miles · Rebounds

EXACT FREEZE · 6:22:55 PM EDT

PLAYER NOT CAPTURED IN THIS WAVE

This player was in the roster universe but no player forecast is exposed in this revision. Missing here does not mean a zero projection.

COMPARE REVISIONS

What changed between two frozen reads?

A · Earlier→B · Later

FieldA · EarlierChangeB · Later

Lineup & availabilityCapture status

capturedchangednot captured

Lineup & availabilityLineup

projectedchanged—

Lineup & availabilityStarter

benchchanged—

Lineup & availabilityAvailability

probablechanged—

Lineup & availabilityRole

rotationchanged—

Lineup & availabilityRole-change magnitudeCONTEXT

nonechanged—

MinutesExpected minutesNUMERICAL INPUT / OUTPUT

33.6——

MinutesRangeNUMERICAL INPUT / OUTPUT

28.3–38.9changed—

MinutesSource

recent-gameschanged—

OpportunityCaptured opportunityCONTEXT

field goal attempts 15.1 · free throw attempts 3.3 · three point attempts 5.3changed—

ForecastRebounds meanNUMERICAL INPUT / OUTPUT

5.2——

ForecastInput lineage

partially attestedchanged—

ForecastAssumptionsCONTEXT

Forecast uses recent per-minute production and Player State minutes. · Combo distributions are derived from the same atomic simulation draws. · No sportsbook price, line, implied probability or CLV field was used.changednone recorded

ForecastWarningsCONTEXT

Confirmed lineup receipt was rejected because lineup source has not confirmed the starting five. · Recent-games minutes are a soft individual fallback, not a team-conserved next-game rotation projection; strategy selection is ineligible. · sport-data wnba/injuries/game/1022600272: 501 {"capability":"injury_game","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/lineups/player/1643426/status: 501 {"capability":"lineup_ext","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/beneficiaries/player/1643426: 501 {"capability":"beneficiaries","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · Role-conditioned minutes were not assembled because the exact confirmed-lineup receipt is unavailable. · WNBA advanced matchup coverage is incomplete; no defender claim was inferred. · Strategy selection is ineligible: minutes source 'recent-games' is not an attested market-free next-game projection. Any generated distribution is research-only. · sport-data wnba/scout/player/1643426/synergy: 501 {"capability":"scout","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · sport-data wnba/scout/player/1643426/shotzones: 501 {"capability":"scout","error":"capability not implemented for this league","league":"wnba"} · Team rotation candidate unavailable for validation: player-state-service rotation candidate returned 502. The gameplay forecast is unchanged.changednone recorded

ContextDriversCONTEXT

Matchup context is available, but only evidence-backed factors are actionable. · matchup: unknown · Historical player-vs-team sample is descriptive context; no causal adjustment is applied without lineup and role comparability. · matchup: neutral · Opponent team-defense context: suppression index rebounds +0.74, scoring +0.74, threes +0.47; allows 82.3 points a game. This is a coarse team aggregate, not defender attribution, and it does not adjust the forecast.changednone recorded

ForecastP10 / P50 / P90NUMERICAL INPUT / OUTPUT

2.0 / 5.0 / 8.0changed—

ProvenanceSnapshot

er_918c469b3ba2aeea7121a9b5changed—

ProvenanceExact freeze

3:20:59 PM EDTchanged6:22:55 PM EDT

ProvenanceRevision triggersCONTEXT

initial capturechangedavailability changed · role changed · lineup changed · minutes changed · opportunity changed · forecast lineage changed · matchup context changed · forecast changed · validation observer changed · evidence changed

8 unchanged fields

Lineup & availabilityTeammate absences

none recorded—none recorded

Lineup & availabilityRole-change reasons

none recorded—none recorded

MarketOffer

NO MARKET BY DESIGN—NO MARKET BY DESIGN

MarketLean

———

MarketApplied market reasoning

———

MarketContext-only market reasoning

———

MarketP(over) / P(under)

———

ProvenanceModel artifact

3d476fb0…f955—3d476fb0…f955

DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW

Loading frozen research checkpoints…

HISTORICAL FORMULA FEED · AUDIT ONLY

Results & Recorded Calls · 9 qualified

Start with the verified result and flat-1u CORE benchmark P&L. Then compare the recorded call with the evidence that can be reconstructed without using this game's outcome.

FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK

LOSS

Actual: 3 vs 3.5
Flat-1u P&L: −1.00u
CLV: +17.0¢
Minutes: 29.2

Postgame context: Miles fell one board short despite heavy offensive involvement (42% usage, 29 min), as her scoring creation (24 pts, 7 ast) came primarily through perimeter shooting rather than interior activity, and five personal fouls limited her ability to crash the glass aggressively.

SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · REBOUNDS

Olivia Miles O 3.5 REB +120

Persisted decision price · 2.0u model stake · bet_clv:344768

RECORD ONLY

Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.

PROP BRIEF · START HERE

Review the recorded result—not a current play.

What the evidence saysThe context is split

Recent games · Last 5 supports; Against this opponent small sample; Similar players vs opponent pushes back. Do not turn correlated or conflicting history into extra confidence.

Main riskWhat could break the read

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.

Next stepReview the process

Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.

Verified receipt & source timing

Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:344768 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0 · capture bucket Aug 20, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified

WHY IT WAS SURFACED · FEED PRICE

58.6% model chance vs 45.5% needed at +120 · +13.2pp probability edge · +28.9% expected profit / 1u

Model stake2.0u

PREGAME CHECKS · AUDIT

What the receipt can—and cannot—prove

Decision receiptRecord only

+120 · sportsbook unavailable · quote observation unavailable · bet_clv:344768

Pregame availabilityNot timestamped

No immutable pre-tip player-status receipt is connected.

Pregame roleNot verified

Pick-time minutes, lineup, and role inputs are not verified by the canonical receipt.

SUPPORTING CONTEXT · NOT EXTRA VOTES

Recent, H2H, and similar players

Read each row on its stated basis

Recent games · Last 5Supports

4 of 5 would have hit

Against today's OVER 3.5 · 3.8 average · 33.6 average minutes

Against this opponentSmall sample

2 of 2 would have hit

Vs WAS at today's OVER 3.5 · 4.5 average

Similar players vs opponentPushes back

4 below · 1 above market

5 comparable guards, each judged against that player's own closing line

BOTTOM LINE

The context is split

Recent games · Last 5 supports; Against this opponent small sample; Similar players vs opponent pushes back. Do not turn correlated or conflicting history into extra confidence.

WHAT THE ARCHIVE IS MISSING

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.
The source sportsbook or quote observation timestamp was not preserved.
The pre-tip availability observation was not stored immutably.

See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players

L3: 3/3
L5: 4/5
L10: 6/7

Player vs opponentFinished above 3.5 in 2/2 prior player meetings vs WAS · too little to weigh

Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:22 AM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.

DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE

How comparable guards fared vs WAS

Descriptive · not another model vote

4/5 belowClosest 5 peers · median finish 0.5 below market

All Rebounds props vs WAS: 84/131 below
Same position family: 36/52 below

These are market-relative results, not raw points allowed: every peer is judged against the line offered for that peer's own game. The 5 shown are selected by position family and usual line; the opponent result is not used to rank them. 2 abnormal or unverifiable appearances were excluded from the summaries.

See the 5 comparable players

One latest eligible meeting per peer, strictly before Aug 21. “Usual” is that player's trailing median closing line, not the result against WAS.
Player	Why comparable	Date	Own close	Actual	Finish	Minutes
Jordin Canada PG	usual 3.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 31.3 min	Aug 7	3.5	3.0	0.5 below market	34.7
Kiki Rice PG	usual 3.5 over 8 games · Δ 0.0 · 25.6 min	Aug 19	3.5	0.0	3.5 below market	24.5
Paige Bueckers PG	usual 3.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 34.1 min	Aug 5	3.5	5.0	1.5 above market	37.1
Rhyne Howard PG	usual 3.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 33.5 min	Aug 7	3.5	3.0	0.5 below market	31.1
Veronica Burton PG	usual 3.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 31.3 min	Jul 20	3.5	2.0	1.5 below market	26.4

Kept out of the trend

Awak Kuier · Jul 31 · 4.8 min · early exit
Alanna Smith · May 18 · 7.3 min · early exit

Open evidence game log

HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK

Against each game's own verified close

Normal exposure only

Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…

CURRENT-LINE WHAT-IF

Prior results against this card's 3.5 line

A retrospective comparison with this formula line—not the market line offered in each old game.
Date	Opponent	Actual	Minutes	OVER 3.5
Aug 19	@ GSV	5.0	30.2	Hit
Aug 15	@ LVA	4.0	34.2	Hit
Aug 12	@ POR	5.0	34.6	Hit
Aug 9	vs DAL	1.0	33.8	Miss
Aug 8	vs LVA	4.0	35.2	Hit
Aug 6	vs LAS	8.0	33.7	Hit
Aug 2	vs IND	4.0	31.5	Hit

Player history vs WAS

Latest 2 of 2 eligible meetings · finished above 3.5 in 2/2 · average 4.5. Too little to weigh.

Date	Actual	Minutes	OVER 3.5
Jun 24	4.0	35.0	Hit
Jun 21	5.0	32.5	Hit

See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks

+28.9%

Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)

N/A

Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?

Is the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?

The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here

Unavailable

Was calibration measured out of sample?

Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick

Caution

How large is the comparable historical sample?

7 eligible prior games in L10 · 0 under 10 minutes · nested descriptive sample, not 7 independent confirmations

Unavailable

When did the model run and were inputs complete?

Research run timestamp unavailable

Source · Gameplay Intelligence

3 · Availability & role

Unavailable

Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?

No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved

Source · player-state service

Caution

When was status last verified?

Snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:22 AM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped

Rest and travel context are not connected

Caution

What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?

Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified

5 · Execution & portfolio risk

N/A

Is the number still inside its playable boundary?

Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof

Verified

How was stake size derived?

2.0u model-sized stake

Did the pick beat the comparable close?

+17.0¢ closing-line value (price CLV)

Source · joined grading settlement

Verified

Was the formula line stored immutably?

OVER 3.5 · decision key pd_fdbd744b614962536c613469 · receipt bet_clv:344768 · formula priced_lineedges v1.0.0

Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1

Verified

Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?

Miles fell one board short despite heavy offensive involvement (42% usage, 29 min), as her scoring creation (24 pts, 7 ast) came primarily through perimeter shooting rather than interior activity, and five personal fouls limited her ability to crash the glass aggressively.

Source · joined outcome receipt

Verified

What are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?

This pick's flat-1u CORE result is −1.00u. Personal staking remains separate.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Olivia Miles

OVER 3.5 · Rebounds

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE+120book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE58.6%break-even 45.5% · EV +28.9%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 3.5 · stake 2.00u

Formula: priced_lineedges
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

HINDSIGHT MODEYou can test assumptions, but this page cannot save or alter a pregame read after the authoritative tip time. Browser timestamps are a convenience, not independent proof of publication.

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 3.558.6% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 3.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

ISOLATED-PLAYER SENSITIVITYMoving one player's minutes here does not conserve the team's 200 regulation minutes. Name whose minutes or role you think changes so the assumption stays basketball-real.

Starting-role beliefRecorded label: unknown. This label does not secretly add minutes.Expected minutes —Model: — · regulation maximum 40Opportunity / usage change +0%Use for role, touches, shot volume, rebound chances, or potential assists.Matchup adjustment +0.0Direct rebounds added to or removed from the make.Pace / game-script adjustment +0.0Direct rebounds added to or removed from the make for pace, blowout, overtime tail, or foul-risk beliefs.

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 3.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

Gameplay mean × (your minutes ÷ model minutes) × (1 + your opportunity change) + your matchup adjustment + your pace/game-script adjustment. It is a sensitivity tool, not a retrained probability, and it does not claim the CORE formula uses these inputs.

DECISION LAB

Loading the immutable evidence map…

AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT · AUDIT CONTEXT

Availability & Injuries

3 hard availability snapshot flags appear. Player-level observation time is unavailable, so this does not prove the status existed before tip; formula rows remain record-only.

MINElena Buenavida · Coach'sDecisionOUT

MINLiatu King · Coach'sDecisionOUT

MINNapheesa Collier · RestOUT

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

BUILDING

The first frozen read has not posted for this game yet. We publish a checkpointed snapshot before tip instead of inventing a live answer from incomplete inputs.

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…

MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−1H

Prop Watchlist

A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.

Showing 2 of 42 all props market observations

50props checked

2top observations shown now

0Out / Doubtful / Inactive watches hidden

T−1Hlatest locked check

How these market observations are calculated

Typical market close is the median closing line across all earlier verified games this season—not a scoring average or a fixed 30-game window. Recent results use up to five actual-backed games that were final at least six hours before this checkpoint, so a just-finished game may be intentionally excluded. These are descriptive observations, not win probabilities or automatic picks.

Market expectation up

Upward descriptive pattern—not an Over pick

Expectation upPTS · market observation—not a pick

Kayla McBride

MIN · SG · vs WAS

17.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 15.5
Market vs typical: +2.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: +2.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Market + recent results align

This game's PTS line is 17.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 15.5 across 34 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 2.5 above their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 19 · 20.0 actual vs 14.5 line (+5.5)

Possible context: Elena Buenavida — Out (reported Aug 21, 6:15 PM EDT); Liatu King — Out (reported Aug 21, 6:15 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Market expectation down

Downward descriptive pattern—not an Under pick

Expectation downREB · market observation—not a pick

Kayla McBride

MIN · SG · vs WAS

2.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 3.5
Market vs typical: −1.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: −1.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Market + recent results align

This game's REB line is 2.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 3.5 across 33 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 1.5 below their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 19 · 1.0 actual vs 2.5 line (−1.5)

Possible context: Elena Buenavida — Out (reported Aug 21, 6:15 PM EDT); Liatu King — Out (reported Aug 21, 6:15 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Showing the clearest market observations for available players—not additional bets.Open the season tape →

The Read

Minnesota visits Washington in a matchup of two elite defensive teams operating at nearly identical deliberate paces (MIN 81.6, WAS 81.1 possessions per game). The Lynx enter with a +10.8 net rating advantage, fueled by superior offensive efficiency (112.95 ORTG, 55.0% eFG) and lower turnovers (13.7% vs WAS 16.6%), while the Mystics counter with the league's 2nd-ranked overall defense (101.58 DRTG, allowing just 82.34 PPG) and elite rim protection at center (rank 1, 13.16 PPG allowed). The structural story hinges on a clear positional asymmetry: MIN's guards represent a significant scoring advantage against WAS's weak perimeter defense (38.2 PPG allowed to guards, rank 9), but WAS's paint defense creates resistance in the interior. Both teams' elite defensive identities and matched paces project a low-possession, low-scoring game around 167 total points, favoring an UNDER. Min's +10.8 net rating suggests a 5–8 point edge in a full game; however, WAS's defensive infrastructure and blowout probability of only 22% indicate this remains competitive. Key monitoring: MIN's injuries (Napheesa Collier confirmed out; Olivia Miles Probable status unconfirmed) and their impact on rotation minutes are not fully detailed in provided data, creating moderate uncertainty. Watch for guard scoring early—if McBride and Miles establish rhythm against WAS's soft perimeter D, MIN can build separation; if WAS's overall defensive discipline forces contested looks, the game tightens.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH · NOT A BETTING RECOMMENDATION

Matchup Outlook

MIN

Projected winner

-5.5

Model spread

U 167.5

Model total

60%

Outlook confidence · MODERATE

Team Series History

WAS vs MIN · last 16 meetings · MIN leads

Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.

6–10

WAS record

76.8–78

Avg score (home)

-1.2

Avg margin

34.2

Avg reb

RECENT MEETINGS

06/24MIN 78 @ WAS 76LWAS

06/21WAS 84 @ MIN 79WWAS