WNBA · Finalupdated 00:00 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

ATL expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: ATL 1.29, PHO 3.76

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 02:02 UTC

ATL 99 – PHO 89

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

D. Bonner · Over 11.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.04 · last price before start 2.04Won +1.04 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.04 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle 2.04, 1 min ago

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

S. Whitcomb · Under 7.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.94 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games · 1 not checked

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying PHO

SRhyne Howard · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 20 actual

SAngel Reese · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 31 actual

SAllisha Gray · 32 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

SJordin Canada · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 12 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 29 min expected

points 9.5 → 8 actual

Isobel Borlase · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 4 actual

Madina Okot · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 4 actual

1 player has no line from any bookmaker: Paopao (10 expected minutes)

Phoenix Mercuryplaying ATL

SAlyssa Thomas · 34 min expected

points 14.5 → 11 actual

SKahleah Copper · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 38 actual

SDeWanna Bonner · 31 min expected

points 11.5 → 12 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 9 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 6 actual

Natasha Mack · 18 min expected

points 4.5 → 0 actual

Kelsey Plum · Out · left lower leg

points 13.5 → did not play, so no result

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Ayayi (16 expected minutes) · Westbeld (5 min) · Suarez

What could go wrong

updated 00:00 UTC

Who is out

Westbeld · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Mon 22:00 UTC) · 13, 14 and 9 min in the last 3 games

Suarez · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 15, 10 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Out Jones · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 5, 20 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Sherrod · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 00:00 UTC) · 3, 8 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out Dunn · developmental player · PHO

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Ciezki · developmental player · PHO

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

5 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Okot, Borlase, Brochant, Whitcomb) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Reese: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 26.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.2 more than usual

Hillmon: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 22.4 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 more than usual

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Bonner: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 21.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.1 more than usual

Mack: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 24.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 157 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Westbeld out (Mon 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Suarez out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sherrod out (Fri 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +1.98 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.7% higher than the last before the start · 6 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Tue 02:52 UTC

Sami Whitcomb · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 27.5 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 7.5 at 1.94 → Won +0.94 per 1 staked

DeWanna Bonner · points 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (31 expected)

Pick: Over 11.5 at 2.04 → Won +1.04 per 1 staked

12 other players with a posted line

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 31 · 15.5 above the line · played 35.1 min (33 expected) · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.1 min (18 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 20.5 → 38 · 17.5 above the line · played 37.1 min (33 expected) · no final price

Isobel Borlase · points 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 13 min (16 expected) · no final price

Madina Okot · points 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 10.2 min (16 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.1 min (34 expected) · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (25 expected) · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.7 min (29 expected) · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.2 min (30 expected) · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.2 min (32 expected) · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 20 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.7 min (34 expected) · no final price

Kelsey Plum · points 13.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs ATL · last 16 games · ATL leads · PHO record 5–11 · average score 76.6–83.5 · PHO has lost by 6.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Aug · ATL 99 at PHO 89PHO lost

5 Aug · PHO 82 at ATL 96PHO lost

24 May · PHO 80 at ATL 82PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up84.3 points · 31.4 rebounds · 19.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.7% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.5 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 84.3 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.1−2.8 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

DeWanna Bonner · O 11.5 points+104value_edge_pct −2.31 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Sami Whitcomb · U 7.5 points−106value_edge_pct −2.85 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

DeWanna Bonner · O 10.5 points−120value_edge_pct −3.68 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 6

DeWanna Bonner Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 → close −120 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:349282 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · actual 12 · 30.1 min · startedBonner's efficient 4-9 shooting night and perfect 4-4 free-throw performance pushed her past 10.5 despite modest volume, as she capitalized on her 30 minutes and 19% usage rate with elite 56% true shooting.

Jordin Canada Under 8.5 ASTWIN +0.67ubet −149 → close −149 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:349281 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.5% · actual 5 · 29.2 min · startedCanada's playmaking was limited by her narrow offensive role—just 19% usage and 3-10 shooting kept her from facilitating the offense, resulting in only 5 assists despite playing 29 minutes. Her low shot volume forced teammates to create their own offense rather than run through her as the primary initiator.

DeWanna Bonner Over 11.5 PTSWIN +1.04ubet +104 → close +104 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:349283 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 12 · 30.1 min · startedBonner's 4-of-9 shooting was enough to clear 11.5 points, aided by a perfect 4-for-4 night from the free-throw line and 30 minutes of run. She stayed out of foul trouble (1 PF) and maintained steady usage despite modest efficiency, hitting the over by a single point.

Sami Whitcomb Under 7.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −122 · CLV +3.5¢ · bet_clv:349280 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.0% · actual 6 · 27.5 min · startedWhitcomb stayed well below the line despite 28 minutes of playing time, going just 2-for-6 from the field (33% FG) and missing 3 of 5 three-point attempts in a low-efficiency outing. Her 18% usage rate and struggles from the floor kept her total to 6 points, comfortably under the 7.5 target.

Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −162 → close −157 · CLV −0.7¢ · bet_clv:349284 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · bad_price · actual 1 · 37.1 min · startedCopper's 38 points on elite 72% true shooting masked her playmaking drought—she registered just 1 assist despite 37 minutes and 33% usage, suggesting the offense ran through her scoring rather than her facilitation. The bet needed her to operate as a distributor, but she functioned almost purely as a scorer in this game.

Natasha Mack Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.53ubet −189 · bet_clv:351809 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.4% · actual 5 · 19.1 min · bench

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 149 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 152 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 158 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 164 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 194 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 157 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 385 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 762 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 357 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 376 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 378 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 401 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 402 ms

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Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.