WNBA · Finalupdated 08:51 UTC

Las Vegas Aces vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

LVA expected to win by about 13.5 · both teams together expected to score about 180.5 points · odds to win: LVA 1.11, TOR 7.50

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:03 UTC

LVA 88 – TOR 78

Final · 6 of 6 picks won

6 picks checked: 6 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LVA = Las Vegas Aces, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Rice · Under 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.17 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.17 · Our price was 3.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.61 by DraftKings (Sun 04:14 UTC); latest 1.63 at FanDuel (Sun 22:55 UTC). The 4.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

In our results this pick counts as a stake of 0.00 (standard 1); smaller when the price gap is small.

J. Young · Over 19.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.91Won +0.94 per 1 staked

I. Harrison · Under 15.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.83Won +0.93 per 1 staked

I. Harrison · Over 6.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.89 · last price before start 1.67Won +0.89 per 1 staked

N. Smith · Under 14.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.83 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.83 per 1 staked

J. Loyd · Under 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Las Vegas Acesplaying TOR

SA'ja Wilson · 33 min expected

points 26.5 → 27 actual

SJackie Young · 33 min expected

points 19.5 → 21 actual

SChelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 11.5 → 9 actual

SNaLyssa Smith · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 8 actual

Jewell Loyd · 24 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Turner (14 expected minutes) · Yamamoto (11 min) · +6 more

Toronto Tempoplaying LVA

SLaura Juskaite · 33 min expected

points 13.5 → 11 actual

SJulie Allemand · 32 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

SKiki Rice · 30 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 25 min expected

points 15.5 → 12 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 13 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Nurse (30 expected minutes) · Bankole (15 min) · Key (15 min)

What could go wrong

updated 08:51 UTC

Who is out

Out Morrow · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 7, 23 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Out Sykes · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 23:45 UTC) · 2, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Fagbenle · new starter

Out Evans · left leg · LVA

Out Conde · left calf · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Out Sabally · left calf · TOR

Out Green · coach's decision · TOR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Talbot, Bell, Key, Bankole) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Allemand: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 26.8 in the last 5 games, about 5.2 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LVA also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 18 of the 162 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Morrow out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sykes out (Sat 23:45 UTC) · did not play

Fagbenle new starter · started, 25.9 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 6 of 6 picks won6 won, 0 lost · +5.59 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.9% higher than the last before the start · 14 lines checked, 8 scored but not picked · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

Jewell Loyd · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 19.4 min (24 expected)

Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

NaLyssa Smith · points 14.5 → 8 · 6.5 below the line · played 18.9 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 14.5 at 1.83 → Won +0.83 per 1 staked

Isabelle Harrison · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 15.5 at 1.93 → Won +0.93 per 1 staked

Kiki Rice · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.8 min (30 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 2.17 → Won +1.17 per 1 staked

Jackie Young · points 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 34 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 19.5 at 1.94 → Won +0.94 per 1 staked

5 other players with a posted line

Temi Fagbenle · points 7.5 → 13 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.9 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Julie Allemand · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 14.7 min (32 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Chelsea Gray · points 11.5 → 9 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.6 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.60

Laura Juskaite · points 13.5 → 11 · 2.5 below the line · played 28.5 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.73

A'ja Wilson · points 26.5 → 27 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs LVA · last 3 games · LVA leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 78.0–96.7 · TOR has lost by 18.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · TOR 73 at LVA 93TOR lost

23 Aug · LVA 88 at TOR 78TOR lost

20 Jul · LVA 109 at TOR 83TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

LVA gives up86.2 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.0 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.2 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LVA gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 11.5, expected total 183 (Sat 19:30 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 13.5, expected total 180.5 (Sun 23:03 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9

Kiki Rice · U 3.5 rebounds+117value_edge_pct −1.05 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Isabelle Harrison · U 15.5 points−107value_edge_pct −1.43 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Isabelle Harrison · O 6.5 rebounds−112value_edge_pct −1.49 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7

Jewell Loyd · U 8.5 points−122value_edge_pct −1.72 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8

Jackie Young · O 19.5 points−106value_edge_pct −1.98 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10

Jewell Loyd · U 9.5 points−101value_edge_pct −3.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Isabelle Harrison · U 16.5 points−121value_edge_pct −4.14 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

NaLyssa Smith · U 14.5 points−121value_edge_pct −4.55 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 24

Jewell Loyd · U 10.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.78 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 27

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 14

NaLyssa Smith Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −121 → close −130 · CLV +1.8¢ · bet_clv:381013 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.3% · actual 8 · 18.9 min · benchSmith's 8 points came despite an efficient 4-4 from the field (100% FG) because she saw just 19 minutes and 15% usage, limiting her offensive opportunities well below the 14.5-point line. Her two missed free throws and zero 3-point attempts further capped her scoring despite strong shooting efficiency.

Jackie Young Over 19.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −110 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:354985 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.4% · actual 21 · 34.0 min · started

Jewell Loyd Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −130 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:354990 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 2 · 19.4 min · benchLoyd was held to just 2 points on 0-3 shooting and 26% true shooting, bottled up by the defense despite playing 19 minutes with moderate usage at 14%. The combination of poor efficiency and limited offensive opportunities made the under a comfortable winner.

Kiki Rice Over 3.5 ASTWIN +0.68ubet −146 → close −146 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:354987 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.4% · actual 5 · 29.8 min · startedRice's playmaking was on display despite a quiet scoring night, recording 5 assists on 30 minutes of action and 23% usage—enough ball-handling to clear the 3.5 bar even as her shot wasn't falling (6-14 FG). She stayed out of foul trouble (0 PF) and got her opportunities to run the offense.

Jewell Loyd Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.99ubet −101 → close −110 · CLV +2.1¢ · bet_clv:354991 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · actual 2 · 19.4 min · benchLoyd's efficiency collapsed with a 0-3 shooting night (0-2 from three) despite 19 minutes of run, combining poor shot selection with a brutally low 26% TS to finish at just 2 points—well short of the 9.5 line. Her 14% usage rate and inability to get to the free throw line beyond 2-2 attempts sealed the under's easy cover.

Kiki Rice Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.17ubet +117 → close +102 · CLV +3.4¢ · bet_clv:354988 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.6% · actual 3 · 29.8 min · startedRice stayed under 3.5 rebounds despite 30 minutes of run, finishing with exactly 3—a testament to limited offensive rebounding activity and her team's poor rebounding night (−18 +/−), which constrained her ability to crash the glass.

Isabelle Harrison Under 16.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −121 → close −118 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:354983 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · actual 12 · 27.9 min · startedHarrison's 12 points came on just 4-11 shooting (36% FG) despite playing 28 minutes, as inefficient field-goal production and a low free-throw volume (4 attempts) limited her scoring well short of the 16.5 line. Her 27% usage rate and 46% true shooting marked a below-average offensive night that comfortably cashed the under.

Julie Allemand Over 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −154 → close −154 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:354992 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.6% · unexplained · actual 2 · 14.7 min · benchAllemand's limited 15-minute run and 16% usage rate left her well short of assist opportunities, while 2 turnovers in that brief window further dampened her playmaking impact.

Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTSWIN +0.93ubet −107 → close −120 · CLV +2.9¢ · bet_clv:354982 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 12 · 27.9 min · startedHarrison's 12 points came on just 4-11 shooting (36%) despite playing 28 minutes, as her inefficient field-goal performance and lack of three-point attempts (0-2) kept her well below the 15.5 line.

NaLyssa Smith Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −179 · bet_clv:354986 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.1% · unexplained · actual 8 · 18.9 min · bench

Jewell Loyd Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −125 · CLV −0.4¢ · bet_clv:358194 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · actual 2 · 19.4 min · benchLoyd was held to just 2 points on 0-3 shooting despite playing 19 minutes, as inefficient offensive execution (0-2 from three, 26% TS) and low usage (14%) kept her well below the scoring line. A blowout game flow and poor shot selection limited her impact despite available minutes.

Isabelle Harrison Over 6.5 REBWIN +0.89ubet −112 → close −149 · CLV +7.0¢ · bet_clv:354984 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.0% · actual 7 · 27.9 min · startedHarrison logged 28 minutes and corralled 7 boards on 27% usage, hitting the over despite shooting just 36% from the field—her rebounding activity remained steady even as her offensive efficiency lagged. The extra minute of court time and continued glass work in a role where she wasn't forced to shoulder scoring load made the modest 6.5 threshold attainable.

Kiki Rice Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.61ubet −163 → close −158 · CLV −0.7¢ · bet_clv:354989 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.4% · actual 3 · 29.8 min · startedRice stayed well below the rebounding threshold despite solid 30-minute run, pulling down just 3 boards on limited opportunities in a blowout loss where UCLA struggled to control the glass. Her role remained offense-first (5 assists, 23% usage) with minimal crashing activity, keeping her clear of the 4.5 mark.

Julie Allemand Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.63ubet −158 → close −180 · CLV +3.0¢ · bet_clv:381011 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.9% · actual 1 · 14.7 min · bench

Data fetches · 48

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 43 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 50 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 56 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 161 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 161 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 124 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 128 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 141 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 160 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 435 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 593 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 596 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 599 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 664 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 743 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 932 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 892 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 921 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 827 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 855 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 942 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.