WNBA · Finalupdated 16:16 UTC

Seattle Storm vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 8.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176 points · odds to win: SEA 4.23, DAL 1.25

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 20:04 UTC

SEA 70 – DAL 92

Final · 5 of 7 picks won

7 picks checked: 5 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SEA = Seattle Storm, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

E. Magbegor · Under 5.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.10 · last price before start 1.75Won +1.10 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.10 · Our price was 9.5% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.75, 22 min ago

First offered at 1.80 by Pinnacle (Sun 18:15 UTC); latest 1.80 at Pinnacle (Sun 18:15 UTC). The 5.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

J. Melbourne · Under 5.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.78Won +0.81 per 1 staked

P. Bueckers · Under 22.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.82Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

J. Shepard · Under 10.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.65Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

A. Fam · Under 11.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.78 per 1 staked

J. Melbourne · Over 1.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.71 · last price before start 1.71Won +0.71 per 1 staked

O. Sims · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.74 · last price before start 1.74Won +0.74 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Seattle Stormplaying DAL

SDominique Malonga · 27 min expected

points 19.5 → 12 actual

SFlau'jae Johnson · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 23 actual

SJade Melbourne · 27 min expected

assists 5.5 → 0 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 25 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 4 actual

SAwa Fam · 20 min expected

points 11.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Horston (25 expected minutes) · Thierry (15 min) · +3 more

Dallas Wingsplaying SEA

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 22.5 → 32 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 7 actual

SJessica Shepard · 29 min expected

rebounds 10.5 → 11 actual

SAlanna Smith · 24 min expected

points 9.5 → 9 actual

SAwak Kuier · 20 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Odyssey Sims · 24 min expected

assists 2.5 → 0 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (16 expected minutes) · Siegrist (13 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 16:16 UTC

Who is out

James · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 18, 13 and 13 min in the last 3 games

Fudd · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Wed 00:00 UTC) · 35, 24 and 33 min in the last 3 games

Williams · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 1, 6 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Jones · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC) · 6, 7 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Fam · new starter

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 20:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Malonga, Melbourne, Johnson, Smith, Sims) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Fam: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 26.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 fewer than usual

Kuier: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

SEA had 8 days off before this game · DAL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 21 of the 157 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: James out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fudd out (Wed 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Williams out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Fam new starter · started, 25.4 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 7 picks won5 won, 2 lost · +2.14 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.2% higher than the last before the start · 12 lines checked, 5 scored but not picked · checked Tue 20:52 UTC

Jade Melbourne · assists 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 27.3 min (27 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 1.81 → Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Awa Fam · points 11.5 → 0 · 11.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 11.5 at 1.78 → Won +0.78 per 1 staked

Odyssey Sims · assists 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 4 min (24 expected)

Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.74 → Won +0.74 per 1 staked · Result skewed by game events

Paige Bueckers · points 22.5 → 32 · 9.5 above the line · played 26.2 min (33 expected)

Pick: Under 22.5 at 1.81 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market

Ezi Magbegor · rebounds 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.3 min (25 expected)

Pick: Under 5.5 at 2.10 → Won +1.10 per 1 staked

Jessica Shepard · rebounds 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.8 min (29 expected)

Pick: Under 10.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

5 other players with a posted line

Arike Ogunbowale · points 17.5 → 7 · 10.5 below the line · played 22.1 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 23 · 8.5 above the line · played 26.3 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.71

Dominique Malonga · points 19.5 → 12 · 7.5 below the line · played 20.2 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Awak Kuier · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 25.8 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78

Alanna Smith · points 9.5 → 9 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs SEA · last 20 games · SEA leads · DAL record 9–11 · average score 84.1–83.9 · DAL has won by 0.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Sep · DAL 103 at SEA 91DAL won

23 Aug · SEA 70 at DAL 92DAL won

22 Jun · DAL 112 at SEA 110DAL won

1 Jun · SEA 56 at DAL 79DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up86.0 points · 33.2 rebounds · 20.0 assists · 8.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.2+1.8 vs average

DAL gives up 86.0 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7, expected total 174 (Sat 19:30 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 8.5, expected total 176 (Sun 20:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 9

Ezi Magbegor · U 5.5 rebounds+110value_edge_pct +13.25 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Odyssey Sims · U 2.5 assists−136value_edge_pct −2.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11

Jade Melbourne · U 5.5 assists−123value_edge_pct −4.24 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Jessica Shepard · U 10.5 rebounds−127value_edge_pct −4.36 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 22

Jade Melbourne · O 1.5 rebounds−141value_edge_pct −4.47 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23

Awa Fam · U 11.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.59 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 25

Ezi Magbegor · U 6.5 rebounds−130value_edge_pct −4.88 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 29

Paige Bueckers · U 22.5 points−123value_edge_pct −4.89 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 30

Paige Bueckers · U 23.5 points−110value_edge_pct −5.54 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 32

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 12

Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.67ubet −150 → close −150 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391711 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.7% · actual 4 · 26.8 min · startedShepard stayed under 5.5 assists despite heavy involvement (27 min, 22% usage) because she operated primarily as a rebounder and scorer rather than a facilitator, tallying just 4 dimes while pulling down 11 boards. Her limited playmaking role kept her well clear of the over, finishing with one assist shy of the line.

Jade Melbourne Over 1.5 REBWIN +0.71ubet −141 → close −141 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391710 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · actual 4 · 27.3 min · started

Awa Fam Under 11.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −130 · CLV +0.4¢ · bet_clv:391708 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · actual 0 · 25.4 min · startedFam was a complete non-factor offensively despite 25 minutes of playing time, going 0-for-5 from the field and 0-for-3 from three with a 9% usage rate, making the under an easy cover.

Odyssey Sims Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.74ubet −136 → close −136 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:391716 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.2% · actual 0 · 4.0 min · bench · excusedSims logged just 4 minutes with a foul drawn early, severely limiting her opportunity to accumulate assists and resulting in zero dimes on the night. The minimal playing time made the under an easy cover despite her 24% usage rate when on court.

Ezi Magbegor Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.10ubet +110 → close −133 · CLV +9.5¢ · bet_clv:391713 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.9% · actual 4 · 25.3 min · startedMagbegor came up one board short despite playing 25 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (0-4 FG, 10% usage) that limited her involvement in the flow of the game and kept her off the glass.

Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −127 → close −155 · CLV +4.8¢ · bet_clv:391712 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · conversion_unlucky · actual 11 · 26.8 min · startedShepard grabbed 11 rebounds in 27 minutes, exceeding the 10.5 line by one despite modest offensive efficiency (5-11 FG); her workload on the glass was enough to push the under just over the edge.

Ezi Magbegor Under 6.5 REBWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −130 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:378718 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · actual 4 · 25.3 min · started

Paige Bueckers Under 23.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −110 → close −110 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:378716 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · unexplained · actual 32 · 26.2 min · started

Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −153 → close −162 · CLV +1.4¢ · bet_clv:352691 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 4 · 26.2 min · startedBueckers was a volume scorer (32 pts on 95% TS), commanding 35% usage, which left limited playmaking opportunities—she logged just 4 assists in 26 minutes despite elite efficiency. Her usage rate concentrated shot-taking over ball movement, keeping her well clear of the 6.5 assist line.

Paige Bueckers Under 22.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −123 → close −122 · CLV −0.2¢ · bet_clv:352690 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.5% · bad_price · actual 32 · 26.2 min · started

Awak Kuier Over 4.5 REBWIN +0.66ubet −152 → close −158 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:352689 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 7 · 25.8 min · startedKuier grabbed 7 boards in 26 minutes, easily clearing the 4.5 line despite modest offensive output, as her activity on the glass and presence in the paint translated to consistent rebounding opportunities.

Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.81ubet −123 → close −128 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:352688 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.8% · actual 0 · 27.3 min · startedMelbourne recorded zero assists despite 27 minutes and 23% usage, staying in a pure scoring role with no playmaking opportunities—a sharp departure from any ball-distribution expectation that would've pushed toward the over.

Data fetches · 51

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 30 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 31 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 44 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 61 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 60 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 65 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 67 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 74 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 11 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 12 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 13 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 14 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 15 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 157 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 475 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 784 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 36 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 42 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 45 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 53 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 65 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 66 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 67 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 73 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 701 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 895 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.