02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Under 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.77Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.79 · Our price was 0.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.97 by DraftKings (); latest 1.81 at DraftKings (). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →
O. Miles · Over 18.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.76Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
N. Collier · Under 20.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.79 per 1 staked
M. Caldwell · Under 4.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.85Lost −1.00 per 1 staked
N. Collier · Under 8.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.72 · last price before start 1.70Won +0.72 per 1 staked
T. Hayes · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 1.78Won +1.00 per 1 staked
T. Hayes · Over 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.79 · last price before start 1.79Won +0.79 per 1 staked
J. Salaun · Over 10.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.77 · last price before start 1.75Won +0.77 per 1 staked

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Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

03

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying MIN

SVeronica Burton · 28 min expected
points 13.5 → 14 actual
SGabby Williams · 24 min expected
points 13.5 → 15 actual
SKayla Thornton · 24 min expected
points 6.5 → 0 actual
SCecilia Zandalasini · 23 min expected
points 8.5 → 18 actual
Tiffany Hayes · 23 min expected
rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual
Janelle Salaun · 21 min expected
points 10.5 → 12 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Stokes (20 expected minutes) · Charles (18 min) · +2 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying GSV

SKayla McBride · 34 min expected
rebounds 2.5 → 4 actual
SOlivia Miles · 34 min expected
points 18.5 → 8 actual
SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected
rebounds 8.5 → 7 actual
SNatasha Howard · 32 min expected
points 12.5 → 13 actual
SMaya Caldwell · 26 min expected
points 4.5 → 9 actual
Nia Coffey · 25 min expected
points 4.5 → 5 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Juhasz (11 expected minutes) · Delaere (1 min) · +2 more

04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

C. Williams (MIN) · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed ) · 38, 35 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Caldwell · new starter · 3 of 342 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Prechtel · earlier listed as out, now available (changed ) · 4, 5 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out King · coach's decision · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed () · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

6 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Zandalasini, Hayes, Bibby, Joklova, Delaere) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Williams: expected to play 24 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 fewer than usual

Howard: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 14.5 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Caldwell: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Coffey: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 18.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 19 of the 174 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: C. Williams (MIN) out () · did not play

Caldwell new starter · started, 25.4 min

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out () · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
Final · 5 of 8 picks won5 won, 3 lost · +1.07 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.9% higher than the last before the start · 15 lines checked, 7 scored but not picked · checked
Maya Caldwell · points 4.5 → 9 · 4.5 above the line · played 25.4 min (26 expected)
Pick: Under 4.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: worse price than the market
Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.4 min (34 expected)
Pick: Under 2.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 8 · 10.5 below the line · played 27.8 min (34 expected)
Pick: Over 18.5 at 1.79 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall
Tiffany Hayes · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.3 min (23 expected)
Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked
Napheesa Collier · rebounds 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.7 min (33 expected)
Pick: Under 8.5 at 1.72 → Won +0.72 per 1 staked
Janelle Salaun · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 28 min (21 expected)
Pick: Over 10.5 at 1.77 → Won +0.77 per 1 staked
6 other players with a posted line
Cecilia Zandalasini · points 8.5 → 18 · 9.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (23 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85
Kayla Thornton · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 7.9 min (24 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.78
Gabby Williams · points 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 30 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.86, Under 1.88
Nia Coffey · points 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.3 min (25 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85
Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70
Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.13, Under 1.67

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Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

MIN vs GSV · last 10 games · MIN leads · MIN record 9–1 · average score 80.5–72.2 · MIN has won by 8.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Aug · GSV 80 at MIN 66MIN lost
19 Aug · MIN 77 at GSV 66MIN won
19 Jun · MIN 81 at GSV 75MIN won
4 Jun · GSV 84 at MIN 87MIN won
What each defense gives up per game
GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.5 rebounds · 18.3 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers
MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers
Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.2 vs average
MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.2−3.3 vs average
How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 159.5 () and later MIN expected to win by 5, expected total 162 ().

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 10
Maya Caldwell · U 4.5 points−130value_edge_pct −1.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−126value_edge_pct −3.57 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Tiffany Hayes · O 2.5 rebounds+100value_edge_pct −3.82 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8
Olivia Miles · O 18.5 points−126value_edge_pct −3.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Olivia Miles · O 19.5 points−105value_edge_pct −4.15 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Napheesa Collier · U 8.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Janelle Salaun · O 10.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Olivia Miles · O 17.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.75 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Tiffany Hayes · O 8.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Napheesa Collier · U 20.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15
Nia Coffey Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close +102 · CLV −11.9¢ · bet_clv:403441 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 5 · 15.3 min · bench
Kayla McBride Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 → close −169 · CLV −3.4¢ · bet_clv:401523 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.8% · bad_price · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride exceeded the assist prop despite shooting just 18% from the field, relying on her playmaking (4 ast in 33 min) rather than scoring to impact the game—a rare occurrence that undermined the under bet.
Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 · bet_clv:403440 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · unexplained · actual 1 · 29.5 min · startedZandalasini's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage (30%) and 30 minutes; she generated just 1 assist while shouldering a scoring load (18 pts on 7-17 FG), suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. Four personal fouls also may have limited her ability to push tempo and create in transition.
Maya Caldwell Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −164 → close −138 · CLV −4.1¢ · bet_clv:401526 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's 3-for-5 three-point shooting (60%) and near-perfect 90% true shooting overcame modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient scoring made the under vulnerable to even modest volume. She needed just 9 points to bust a 5.5 line, and elite efficiency made that threshold easier to clear than expected.
Janelle Salaun Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −134 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:401535 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 12 · 28.0 min · startedSalaun cleared the line with solid floor time (28 min) and moderate usage (23%), converting 5-of-11 from the field to reach 12 points despite a quiet free-throw line (0-0 FT). Her 55% true shooting kept her efficient enough to comfortably exceed the 10.5-point threshold.
Napheesa Collier Under 8.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −143 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:401534 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 7 · 31.7 min · startedCollier stayed under the line despite playing 32 minutes, hampered by a modest 18% usage rate that limited her rebounding opportunities in a game where Minnesota's ball movement reduced second-chance situations.
Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −130 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:401524 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride grabbed 4 boards despite a poor 2-11 shooting night, staying on the floor for all 33 minutes and maintaining active rebounding work even as her offensive touches dried up. The volume was there to hit the over, and she delivered on the glass despite shooting just 18% from the field.
Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401533 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 9 · 31.7 min · startedCollier's offensive efficiency collapsed on just 4-10 shooting (40% FG) and she drew no free throw attempts despite 32 minutes, combining for a season-low 9 points well below the 20.5 line. Her 18% usage rate and 45% true shooting marked a significant drop-off from her typical volume and efficiency.
Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −128 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:401527 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 3 · 18.3 min · benchHayes hit the over with efficient floor time, grabbing 3 rebounds in just 18 minutes while maintaining elite shooting (5-8 FG, 79% TS) and staying out of foul trouble with only 3 PF. Her strong +13 rating and high usage rate (29%) kept her actively involved in a game the team dominated, supporting the rebound total.
Veronica Burton Under 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −150 → close −145 · CLV −0.8¢ · bet_clv:401529 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · bad_price · actual 9 · 30.1 min · startedBurton's playmaking dominated the game despite modest usage; she notched 9 assists in 30 minutes—well above the 6.5 line—by running the offense efficiently with just 1 turnover and forcing 5 steals that generated transition opportunities.
Olivia Miles Over 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −105 → close −112 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:401532 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) and 1-5 from three on 29% usage, combining for historically poor efficiency (31% TS%) that made it impossible to reach 19.5 despite playing 28 minutes. The offensive struggles were across the board—she couldn't generate scoring opportunities and converted few of the looks she did get.
Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −132 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:401531 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 25% from the field (3-12) with brutal 31% true shooting, falling well short of the 18.5-point line despite playing 28 minutes and maintaining solid usage at 29%. Cold shooting across the board—1-5 from three and inefficient overall—was the primary culprit in the 10.5-point shortfall.
Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −128 → close −128 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401530 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · unexplained · actual 8 · 27.8 min · started
Maya Caldwell Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −118 · CLV −2.4¢ · bet_clv:401525 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's rare 3-5 three-point shooting night—capped by a 90% true shooting percentage—doubled her expected output despite modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient volume from deep proved enough to clear 4.5. The under missed because elite efficiency on limited attempts can still generate ceiling-level scoring in short bursts.
Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401528 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 14 · 18.3 min · benchHayes knocked down 5-of-8 from the field (62.5%) with efficient 3-point shooting (2-3) to easily clear 8.5 points in just 18 minutes, posting a 79% true shooting percentage despite modest usage. Her hot hand and high efficiency from deep made the over a straightforward cover.
Data fetches · 55
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 8 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 13 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 14 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 23 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 26 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 26 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 32 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 59 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 95 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 95 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 122 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 124 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 124 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 164 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 132 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms
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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms
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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 147 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 165 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 279 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 328 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms
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