Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 10
Maya Caldwell · U 4.5 points−130value_edge_pct −1.04 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1
Kayla McBride · U 2.5 rebounds−126value_edge_pct −3.57 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Tiffany Hayes · O 2.5 rebounds+100value_edge_pct −3.82 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 8
Olivia Miles · O 18.5 points−126value_edge_pct −3.87 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 9
Olivia Miles · O 19.5 points−105value_edge_pct −4.15 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 10
Napheesa Collier · U 8.5 rebounds−138value_edge_pct −4.16 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Janelle Salaun · O 10.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Olivia Miles · O 17.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.75 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Tiffany Hayes · O 8.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17
Napheesa Collier · U 20.5 points−127value_edge_pct −4.99 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 18
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 15
Nia Coffey Under 5.5 PTSWIN +0.63ubet −159 → close +102 · CLV −11.9¢ · bet_clv:403441 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.6% · actual 5 · 15.3 min · bench
Kayla McBride Under 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 → close −169 · CLV −3.4¢ · bet_clv:401523 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.8% · bad_price · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride exceeded the assist prop despite shooting just 18% from the field, relying on her playmaking (4 ast in 33 min) rather than scoring to impact the game—a rare occurrence that undermined the under bet.
Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −196 · bet_clv:403440 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · unexplained · actual 1 · 29.5 min · startedZandalasini's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage (30%) and 30 minutes; she generated just 1 assist while shouldering a scoring load (18 pts on 7-17 FG), suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. Four personal fouls also may have limited her ability to push tempo and create in transition.
Maya Caldwell Under 5.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −164 → close −138 · CLV −4.1¢ · bet_clv:401526 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.3% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's 3-for-5 three-point shooting (60%) and near-perfect 90% true shooting overcame modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient scoring made the under vulnerable to even modest volume. She needed just 9 points to bust a 5.5 line, and elite efficiency made that threshold easier to clear than expected.
Janelle Salaun Over 10.5 PTSWIN +0.77ubet −130 → close −134 · CLV +0.7¢ · bet_clv:401535 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · actual 12 · 28.0 min · startedSalaun cleared the line with solid floor time (28 min) and moderate usage (23%), converting 5-of-11 from the field to reach 12 points despite a quiet free-throw line (0-0 FT). Her 55% true shooting kept her efficient enough to comfortably exceed the 10.5-point threshold.
Napheesa Collier Under 8.5 REBWIN +0.72ubet −138 → close −143 · CLV +0.9¢ · bet_clv:401534 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.6% · actual 7 · 31.7 min · startedCollier stayed under the line despite playing 32 minutes, hampered by a modest 18% usage rate that limited her rebounding opportunities in a game where Minnesota's ball movement reduced second-chance situations.
Kayla McBride Under 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −130 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:401524 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 33.4 min · startedMcBride grabbed 4 boards despite a poor 2-11 shooting night, staying on the floor for all 33 minutes and maintaining active rebounding work even as her offensive touches dried up. The volume was there to hit the over, and she delivered on the glass despite shooting just 18% from the field.
Napheesa Collier Under 20.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401533 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 9 · 31.7 min · startedCollier's offensive efficiency collapsed on just 4-10 shooting (40% FG) and she drew no free throw attempts despite 32 minutes, combining for a season-low 9 points well below the 20.5 line. Her 18% usage rate and 45% true shooting marked a significant drop-off from her typical volume and efficiency.
Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −128 · CLV +6.1¢ · bet_clv:401527 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · actual 3 · 18.3 min · benchHayes hit the over with efficient floor time, grabbing 3 rebounds in just 18 minutes while maintaining elite shooting (5-8 FG, 79% TS) and staying out of foul trouble with only 3 PF. Her strong +13 rating and high usage rate (29%) kept her actively involved in a game the team dominated, supporting the rebound total.
Veronica Burton Under 6.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −150 → close −145 · CLV −0.8¢ · bet_clv:401529 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · bad_price · actual 9 · 30.1 min · startedBurton's playmaking dominated the game despite modest usage; she notched 9 assists in 30 minutes—well above the 6.5 line—by running the offense efficiently with just 1 turnover and forcing 5 steals that generated transition opportunities.
Olivia Miles Over 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −105 → close −112 · CLV +1.6¢ · bet_clv:401532 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.1% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) and 1-5 from three on 29% usage, combining for historically poor efficiency (31% TS%) that made it impossible to reach 19.5 despite playing 28 minutes. The offensive struggles were across the board—she couldn't generate scoring opportunities and converted few of the looks she did get.
Olivia Miles Over 18.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −126 → close −132 · CLV +1.1¢ · bet_clv:401531 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 27.8 min · startedMiles shot just 25% from the field (3-12) with brutal 31% true shooting, falling well short of the 18.5-point line despite playing 28 minutes and maintaining solid usage at 29%. Cold shooting across the board—1-5 from three and inefficient overall—was the primary culprit in the 10.5-point shortfall.
Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −128 → close −128 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401530 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.5% · unexplained · actual 8 · 27.8 min · started
Maya Caldwell Under 4.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 → close −118 · CLV −2.4¢ · bet_clv:401525 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.9% · bad_price · actual 9 · 25.4 min · startedCaldwell's rare 3-5 three-point shooting night—capped by a 90% true shooting percentage—doubled her expected output despite modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient volume from deep proved enough to clear 4.5. The under missed because elite efficiency on limited attempts can still generate ceiling-level scoring in short bursts.
Tiffany Hayes Over 8.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 → close −127 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:401528 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-24T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.2% · actual 14 · 18.3 min · benchHayes knocked down 5-of-8 from the field (62.5%) with efficient 3-point shooting (2-3) to easily clear 8.5 points in just 18 minutes, posting a 79% true shooting percentage despite modest usage. Her hot hand and high efficiency from deep made the over a straightforward cover.
Data fetches · 55
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 8 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 13 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 14 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 20 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 19 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 23 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 23 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 23 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 24 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 26 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 26 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 32 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 36 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 59 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 67 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 68 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 86 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 92 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 95 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 95 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 122 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 123 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 124 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 124 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 105 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms
sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 164 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 129 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 132 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 136 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 143 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 147 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 165 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 279 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 328 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 734 ms