WNBA · Finalupdated 15:14 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

CHI expected to win by about 7 · both teams together expected to score about 172 points · odds to win: CHI 1.33, CON 3.48

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 23:02 UTC

CHI 81 – CON 87

Final · 2 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 2 won, 3 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

S. Rivers · Under 10.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.94 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.94 · Our price was 5.4% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.97 by DraftKings (Tue 01:32 UTC); latest 1.80 at DraftKings (Tue 22:59 UTC). The 10.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 0.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

S. Rivers · Under 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 1.93 · last price before start 1.63Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

S. Taylor · Over 12.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.79Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

C. Leger-Walker · Under 8.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.78 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.78 per 1 staked

N. Cloud · Over 11.5 pointsWithdrawn: outPosted at 1.77 · last price before start pendingLost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

6 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 2 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 8 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying CON

SKamilla Cardoso · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 24 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SAzura Stevens · 24 min expected

points 10.5 → 18 actual

SSydney Taylor · 18 min expected

points 12.5 → 4 actual

SNatasha Cloud · 32 min expected · Out · right knee · listed out, then played

points 11.5 → 3 actual

DiJonai Carrington · 18 min expected · Out · left foot · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 0 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sheldon (15 expected minutes) · Banham (14 min) · +3 more

Connecticut Sunplaying CHI

SKennedy Burke · 28 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 25 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 27 min expected

3-pointers 0.5 → 1 actual

9 players have no line from any bookmaker: Leger-Walker (27 expected minutes) · Miller (25 min) · +7 more

What could go wrong

updated 15:14 UTC

Who is out

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 16, 10 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Rivers · new starter

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Maly · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 19, 22 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Out Cloud · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sat 22:15 UTC) · 21, 16 and 30 min in the last 3 games

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Marshall · coach's decision · CON

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

CON has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Coulibaly, Jaquez, Jackson, Kneepkens) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 8 days off before this game · CON had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 77 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nelson-Ododa out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Rivers new starter · started, 29.4 min

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Maly out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cloud out (Sat 22:15 UTC) · played

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 5 picks won2 won, 3 lost · −1.28 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.1% higher than the last before the start · 9 lines checked, 4 scored but not picked · checked Thu 23:52 UTC

Natasha Cloud · points 11.5 → 3 · 8.5 below the line · played 15.9 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 11.5 at 1.77 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Sydney Taylor · points 12.5 → 4 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.1 min (18 expected)

Pick: Over 12.5 at 1.82 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

6 other players with a posted line

DiJonai Carrington · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 4.1 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Saniya Rivers · 3-pointers 0.5 → 1 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (27 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.57, Under —

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 18 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.74

Kennedy Burke · points + rebounds + assists 15.5 → 25 · 9.5 above the line · played 32.9 min (28 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Kamilla Cardoso · points 15.5 → 24 · 8.5 above the line · played 28.7 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Courtney Vandersloot · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 25.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs CHI · last 25 games · CON leads · CON record 14–11 · average score 82.7–79.0 · CON has won by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

25 Aug · CHI 81 at CON 87CON won

30 Jul · CON 88 at CHI 94CON lost

22 Jun · CHI 63 at CON 92CON won

5 Jun · CON 80 at CHI 85CON lost

3 Sep · CON 64 at CHI 88CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had CHI expected to win by 5, expected total 168.5 (Mon 20:23 UTC) and later CHI expected to win by 7, expected total 172 (Tue 23:02 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Saniya Rivers · U 10.5 points−106value_edge_pct −1.56 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Sydney Taylor · O 12.5 points−122value_edge_pct −3.06 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Natasha Cloud · O 11.5 points−130value_edge_pct −4.45 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 15

Charlisse Leger-Walker · U 8.5 points−128value_edge_pct −4.96 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 17

Saniya Rivers · U 4.5 assists−108value_edge_pct −5.30 · kelly 0.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 19

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 9

Charlisse Leger-Walker Under 8.5 PTSWIN +0.78ubet −128 → close −132 · CLV +0.8¢ · bet_clv:419487 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.4% · actual 4 · 29.5 min · startedLeger-Walker's poor shooting efficiency—just 1-for-9 from the field (11% FG) with no 3-pointers made—kept her well short of 8.5 points despite playing a full 30 minutes. Her 20% true shooting and 15% usage rate reflect a night where she couldn't get into any offensive rhythm.

Saniya Rivers Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.42ubet −240 → close −240 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:406501 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.8% · actual 5 · 29.4 min · started

Courtney Vandersloot Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.65ubet −154 → close −204 · CLV +6.5¢ · bet_clv:406496 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.1% · actual 9 · 25.1 min · startedVandersloot nearly doubled the line with 9 assists in 25 minutes, operating as the primary facilitator in what was likely a game flow favoring ball movement over her own scoring. Her elite assist rate and high-volume playmaking—despite modest 13% usage—made the over a comfortable winner.

Sydney Taylor Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −323 · bet_clv:419480 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.5% · unexplained · actual 4 · 20.1 min · started

Saniya Rivers Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet −108 → close −158 · CLV +9.3¢ · bet_clv:406500 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 29.4 min · startedRivers pushed over the line with exactly 5 assists despite shooting just 3-10 and posting poor efficiency (35% TS), relying on playmaking volume rather than scoring to stay productive in 29 minutes.

Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 → close −127 · CLV +1.0¢ · bet_clv:406497 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 4 · 20.1 min · startedTaylor's shooting was catastrophic, going 2-11 from the field (18% TS%) with an 0-6 three-point night in 20 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 12.5 points. Despite moderate usage (25%), her inability to convert any perimeter shots and reliance on made field goals left her 8.5 points short of the over.

Saniya Rivers Under 10.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −132 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:406499 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · actual 7 · 29.4 min · startedRivers' poor shooting night—just 3-for-10 from the field (30%) with a 35% true shooting percentage—kept her well below the 10.5-point line despite playing 29 minutes with moderate usage at 17%. The offensive inefficiency, not reduced playing time, was the primary driver of the under hitting.

Kennedy Burke Under 2.5 ASTWIN +0.45ubet −222 · bet_clv:406498 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.7% · actual 1 · 32.9 min · started

Natasha Cloud Over 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −130 · bet_clv:419483 · priced_lineedges · captured 2026-08-25T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.0% · unexplained · actual 3 · 15.9 min · benchCloud played just 16 minutes with minimal offensive involvement (11% usage, 1-3 FG), falling well short of the 11.5-point line. Limited run and low shot volume kept her far below projection despite solid efficiency when she did touch the ball.

Data fetches · 44

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 69 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 73 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 81 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 90 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 239 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 260 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 263 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 267 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 228 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 623 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 575 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 693 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 692 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 692 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 778 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 302 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 920 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1024 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 604 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 610 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 659 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 674 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 686 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.