WNBA · FINAL · TUE, AUG 25, 10:00 PM

WAS @ PHO

Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury

← All WNBA games on 2026-08-25

+1.5

Spread (home)

167.5

Total

-120 / -102

Moneyline

Snapshot market context · game-quote observation time and source book unavailable · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT

GAME BRIEF · START HERE

Start with what happened, then judge the process.

Washington Mystics at Phoenix Mercury is a completed-game review. Any call below is record-only.

REVIEW

Open the 2-minute projection guide

01 · PROP DECISIONS

What the evidence says

2 of 2 prop cards have eligible recent or player-opponent history. Each card explains whether that context supports, opposes, or is too thin.

02 · AVAILABILITY

What could break it

1 hard availability flag returned (Marta Suarez). Player-level observation times are unavailable, so verify the source report.

03 · MARKET MOVEMENT

What changed

49 unusual market lines: 21 above and 28 below players' typical closes. 2 signals withheld by availability or data-quality checks. Market movement is context, not an Over/Under pick.

MODEL UPDATES

HISTORY TEMPORARILY UNAVAILABLE

We could not load the saved forecast history right now. This does not mean the model never changed or made no call.

DECISION TIMELINE · REVISION FLOW

Loading frozen research checkpoints…

HISTORICAL FORMULA FEED · AUDIT ONLY

Results & Recorded Calls · 2 qualified

Start with the verified result and flat-1u CORE benchmark P&L. Then compare the recorded call with the evidence that can be reconstructed without using this game's outcome.

FINAL RESULT · CORE BENCHMARK

LOSS

Actual: 0 vs 1.5
Flat-1u P&L: −1.00u
CLV: +26.7¢
Minutes: 30.5

Postgame context: Conversion unlucky

SERVER RECORD · CORE FORMULA · THREES

Kahleah Copper O 1.5 3PM +150

Persisted decision price · 2.0u model stake · bet_clv:407500

RECORD ONLY

Current meaning: This is a settled, record-only decision. It is historical evidence, not a current wager.

PROP BRIEF · START HERE

Review the recorded result—not a current play.

What the evidence saysThe context is split

Recent games · Last 5 supports; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent supports. Do not turn correlated or conflicting history into extra confidence.

Main riskWhat could break the read

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.

Next stepReview the process

Compare the result, minutes, closing line, and receipt limits below.

Verified receipt & source timing

Canonical decision receipt · Receipt bet_clv:407500 · formula consensus_devig v1.0.0 · capture bucket Aug 24, 8:00 PM EDT (not decision time) · decision time unavailable · point-in-time unverified

WHY IT WAS SURFACED · FEED PRICE

61.5% model chance vs 40.0% needed at +150 · +21.5pp probability edge · +0.6% expected profit / 1u

Model stake2.0u

PREGAME CHECKS · AUDIT

What the receipt can—and cannot—prove

Decision receiptRecord only

+150 · sportsbook unavailable · quote observation unavailable · bet_clv:407500

Pregame availabilityNot timestamped

No immutable pre-tip player-status receipt is connected.

Pregame roleNot verified

Pick-time minutes, lineup, and role inputs are not verified by the canonical receipt.

SUPPORTING CONTEXT · NOT EXTRA VOTES

Recent, H2H, and similar players

Read each row on its stated basis

Recent games · Last 5Supports

3 of 5 would have hit

Against today's OVER 1.5 · 1.8 average · 34.4 average minutes

Against this opponentPushes back

2 of 5 would have hit

Vs WAS at today's OVER 1.5 · 1.4 average

Similar players vs opponentSupports

1 below · 4 above market

5 comparable wings, each judged against that player's own closing line

BOTTOM LINE

The context is split

Recent games · Last 5 supports; Against this opponent pushes back; Similar players vs opponent supports. Do not turn correlated or conflicting history into extra confidence.

WHAT THE ARCHIVE IS MISSING

Decision time is unavailable; the capture bucket must not be read as decision time.
The source sportsbook or quote observation timestamp was not preserved.
The pre-tip availability observation was not stored immutably.

See game-by-game evidenceL3 / L5 / L10 · opponent games · comparable players

L3: 2/3
L5: 3/5
L10: 5/8

Player vs opponentFinished above 1.5 in 2/5 prior player meetings vs WAS

Position/team matchupNo stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Reconstructed from a snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT. The target game and all same/future dates are excluded. L3 is contained inside L5, which is contained inside L10; they are one sample, not three confirmations.

DEFENSE CHECK · EACH PLAYER'S OWN CLOSE

How comparable wings fared vs WAS

Descriptive · not another model vote

4/5 aboveClosest 5 peers · median finish 0.5 above market

All Threes props vs WAS: 60/113 below
Same position family: 11/20 above

These are market-relative results, not raw points allowed: every peer is judged against the line offered for that peer's own game. The 5 shown are selected by position family and usual line; the opponent result is not used to rank them.

See the 5 comparable players

One latest eligible meeting per peer, strictly before Aug 25. “Usual” is that player's trailing median closing line, not the result against WAS.
Player	Why comparable	Date	Own close	Actual	Finish	Minutes
Diamond Miller SF	usual 1.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 26.1 min	Jun 17	0.5	1.0	0.5 above market	11.5
Gabby Williams SF	usual 1.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 21.9 min	Jul 20	1.5	0.0	1.5 below market	25.9
Kayla Thornton SF	usual 1.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 24.8 min	Jul 20	1.5	4.0	2.5 above market	28.8
Kennedy Burke SF	usual 1.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 22.5 min	Jun 26	1.5	3.0	1.5 above market	28.4
Rae Burrell SF	usual 1.5 over 10 games · Δ 0.0 · 31.4 min	Aug 15	2.5	3.0	0.5 above market	34.1

Open evidence game log

HISTORICAL MARKET CHECK

Against each game's own verified close

Normal exposure only

Checking verified pre-tip closing lines…

CURRENT-LINE WHAT-IF

Prior results against this card's 1.5 line

A retrospective comparison with this formula line—not the market line offered in each old game.
Date	Opponent	Actual	Minutes	OVER 1.5
Aug 22	vs ATL	3.0	37.1	Hit
Aug 16	vs POR	2.0	36.1	Hit
Aug 11	@ LAS	1.0	35.1	Miss
Aug 9	@ WAS	2.0	29.8	Hit
Aug 7	@ CON	1.0	34.0	Miss
Aug 5	@ ATL	1.0	35.5	Miss
Aug 3	@ CHI	4.0	34.4	Hit
Aug 1	vs NYL	2.0	36.6	Hit

Player history vs WAS

Latest 5 of 14 eligible meetings · finished above 1.5 in 2/5 · average 1.4. Context only; roles and schemes change.

Date	Actual	Minutes	OVER 1.5
Aug 9	2.0	29.8	Hit
Sep 4	3.0	31.6	Hit
Jul 27	0.0	26.2	Miss
Sep 5	1.0	29.8	Miss
Jul 16	1.0	32.6	Miss

See methodology & source audit6 pillars · 49 checks

The six items are pillars, not six yes/no questions. Each check below is evidence—not a gamified score. One hard failure can outweigh many verified inputs.

1 · Price & market value

Caution

What exact side, line, odds, and book are offered?

Kahleah Copper OVER 1.5 +150 · sportsbook unavailable

Source · canonical grading decision receipt

Caution

When was the formula price captured?

Capture bucket Aug 24, 8:00 PM EDT (storage bucket, not decision time) · decision time unavailable · quote observation unavailable

Source · bet_clv:407500

Verified

What hit rate does the price require?

40.0%

Source · derived from formula-feed American odds

Verified

What is the calibrated probability at this line?

61.5%

Source · canonical decision model.calibrated_hit_probability

Verified

What is the probability-point edge?

+21.5pp

Source · p_hit minus formula-price break-even

Verified

What is expected profit per unit?

+0.6%

Source · canonical decision model.claimed_ev_pct (when persisted)

N/A

Does the exact line appear in the connected snapshot?

Mutable latest-market rows are intentionally excluded from historical pre-tip proof

Unavailable

What price or line turns this into a pass?

Server-authoritative playable boundaries are not published yet

N/A

Does the broader market agree?

Mutable latest-market rows are not used to reconstruct historical consensus

Unavailable

Is the market liquid enough?

Limits and liquidity are not connected

2 · Projection quality & uncertainty

Unavailable

What is the projected median?

Unavailable

What does the outcome distribution look like?

Distribution unavailable

Unavailable

How sensitive is the pick to minutes, usage, or pace?

Sensitivity model unavailable

Caution

What do L3, L5, and L10 show at this exact line?

L3 2/3 · L5 3/5 · L10 5/8 at the formula OVER 1.5 line

Source · reconstructed hydrator game history; target/same/future dates excluded

Caution

Is the model calibrated for this league, prop, and bucket?

The pick carries calibrated p_hit; bucket-level proof is not exposed here

Unavailable

Was calibration measured out of sample?

Out-of-sample calibration evidence is not exposed per pick

Caution

How large is the comparable historical sample?

8 eligible prior games in L10 · 0 under 10 minutes · nested descriptive sample, not 8 independent confirmations

Unavailable

When did the model run and were inputs complete?

Research run timestamp unavailable

Source · Gameplay Intelligence

3 · Availability & role

Unavailable

Is the player active, questionable, limited, or returning?

No hard game-report flag; individual status is not fully resolved

Source · player-state service

Caution

When was status last verified?

Snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT; injury-source observation time is not mapped

Source · data-hydrator snapshot assembly

Unavailable

What is the expected minutes range?

Minutes projection unavailable

Unavailable

Is the player starting or restricted?

Starter and restriction status unavailable

Unavailable

Has opportunity changed?

Opportunity feed unavailable

Unavailable

Which teammate absences change the role?

No confirmed teammate-absence attribution returned

Unavailable

Were injury-shortened games identified?

The joined outcome does not include a verified abnormal-exposure flag

Unavailable

What rotation change could invalidate the projection?

No material role change returned

4 · Game environment & matchup

Unavailable

How many possessions are expected?

A game-level pace projection is not exposed on this card

Caution

What do spread and total imply?

Spread (home) +1.5 · Total 167.5 · Moneyline -120 / -102 · archive context only; not an immutable pre-tip market receipt · snapshot assembled Sep 2, 4:24 AM EDT

Source · data-hydrator assembled game-market snapshot

Unavailable

Does opponent scheme affect this stat?

No stat-matched position/team factor is connected; direct defender assignments are unavailable

Caution

What has this player done against this opponent?

Finished above 1.5 in 2/5 prior player meetings vs WAS

Source · reconstructed player-vs-team game history; target date excluded

Unavailable

Which defender or lineup matters?

Defender attribution is not exposed

Unavailable

Is rest, travel, or schedule a disadvantage?

Rest and travel context are not connected

Caution

What foul, blowout, or game-script path creates downside?

Spread is visible; player-level foul and game-script risk are not quantified

5 · Execution & portfolio risk

N/A

Is the number still inside its playable boundary?

Not applicable after tip; mutable current offers are excluded from historical execution proof

Verified

How was stake size derived?

2.0u model-sized stake

Source · canonical decision model.kelly_stake_units

Unavailable

How much correlated exposure already exists?

Player, game, and injury-thesis exposure are not connected

Unavailable

Are exposure limits respected?

Daily, league, player, and prop limits are not exposed

Caution

What event withdraws or expires the pick?

Game start and hard availability conflicts are enforced; price boundaries remain a backend gap

Caution

Is this pregame, live, or halftime analysis?

Schedule status: final · formula-feed archive context

Caution

Is there a no-chase rule?

The UI expires the card after tip and requires exact-line verification; explicit price-bound enforcement is pending

6 · Outcome evidence & accountability

Verified

Did the pick beat the comparable close?

+26.7¢ closing-line value (price CLV)

Source · joined grading settlement

Verified

Was the formula line stored immutably?

OVER 1.5 · decision key pd_fcc7110716d0fa7a19069bc1 · receipt bet_clv:407500 · formula consensus_devig v1.0.0

Source · prop-decision-envelope.v1

Verified

Was a miss variance, injury, foul trouble, or blowout?

Conversion unlucky

Source · joined outcome receipt

Verified

What are flat-1u and actual-staked ROI?

This pick's flat-1u CORE result is −1.00u. Personal staking remains separate.

Source · joined grading ledger

Unavailable

What are sample size and uncertainty interval?

Per-cohort confidence interval is not exposed on the card

Unavailable

Are probabilities calibrated by Brier or log loss?

Per-cohort calibration metrics are not exposed

Unavailable

Where is performance weakening?

League/prop/price/book/time-to-tip drift is not joined here

Unavailable

What are drawdown and losing-streak behavior?

Portfolio drawdown belongs to the ledger and is not connected to this pick

Unavailable

Is the edge persisting in new data?

Model-versioned out-of-sample persistence is not exposed per pick

CORE FORMULA CARD · ACCOUNT ACCESS

Additional qualified candidate

RECORD ONLY

This hidden formula-feed row is archive context, not a current wager or proof of a pre-tip publication.

Create account to view

DECISION LAB · MODEL RECORD + YOUR READ

Challenge what the system knew.

The original records stay frozen. Your thesis is checked against the captured evidence, then any explicit numerical assumption is tested separately—never silently fed into CORE or Gameplay.

HISTORICAL

SELECTED PROP

Kahleah Copper

OVER 1.5 · 3-pointers made

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREThe exact CORE record has no matching immutable Gameplay player capture to compare.

RECORDED CORE LANE

What the formula record actually says

DECISION RECEIPT

FORMULA FEATURE INPUTSNOT STORED IN THIS RECEIPTThe receipt preserves pricing outputs and the action—not the lineup, minutes, usage, or matchup contribution path.

Stored pricing outputs

CAPTURED PRICE+150book not stored · time not stored

CALIBRATED SIDE61.5%break-even 40.0% · EV +0.6%

STORED ACTIONrecord onlyOVER 1.5 · stake 2.00u

Formula: consensus_devig
Version: v1.0.0
Decision time: time not stored
Input status: unverified
Point-in-time: unverified
Receipt quality: partial

Receipt integrity flagssource sportsbook unavailable · quote observed at unavailable · decision at unavailable · capture receipt unavailable

game settled

NO GAMEPLAY CAPTUREEvidence beside the call is not automatically evidence inside the call.

IMMUTABLE GAMEPLAY CAPTURE

What the research system captured

CAPTURE BUILDING

Gameplay evidence is capture building.

The CORE row remains visible, but there is no immutable research projection from which to build a numeric human scenario.

REPLAY LAB · HINDSIGHT CHALLENGE

Tell us what the model may have missed

Write your basketball thesis normally. We'll turn it into checkable claims, compare each one with the frozen Gameplay capture, and show whether a quantified counterfactual changes the make.

UNSAVED REPLAY

HINDSIGHT MODEYou can test assumptions, but this page cannot save or alter a pregame read after the authoritative tip time. Browser timestamps are a convenience, not independent proof of publication.

PRIMARY WORKFLOW

Challenge the call

FROZEN CAPTURE · DETERMINISTIC CHECK

What is your basketball read?

Your prose supplies hypotheses, never evidence. This check only recognizes explicit starter, minutes, availability, usage, matchup, pace, and rotation claims.

CORE RECORDOVER 1.561.5% side probability

GAMEPLAY MAKE—— model minutes

GAMEPLAY LEANNO SAME-LINE CAPTUREno capture at 1.5

MY MAKE—scenario unavailable

Advanced manual scenarioDirectly edit minutes, opportunity, matchup, and pace

ISOLATED-PLAYER SENSITIVITYMoving one player's minutes here does not conserve the team's 200 regulation minutes. Name whose minutes or role you think changes so the assumption stays basketball-real.

Starting-role beliefRecorded label: unknown. This label does not secretly add minutes.Expected minutes —Model: — · regulation maximum 40Opportunity / usage change +0%Use for role, touches, shot volume, rebound chances, or potential assists.Matchup adjustment +0.0Direct 3-pointers made added to or removed from the make.Pace / game-script adjustment +0.0Direct 3-pointers made added to or removed from the make for pace, blowout, overtime tail, or foul-risk beliefs.

My decision

Confidence in my readLineup / availability beliefWhose minutes / role moves?This note is required for a rotation-aware interpretation; the calculator itself remains player-only.

TRANSPARENT SCENARIO MATH

Gameplay baseline—
After your minutes—
After opportunity—
After matchup + pace—

WHAT FLIPS THE LINE?Unavailable

Under your current opportunity, matchup, and pace assumptions, this is the minutes threshold where the personal make equals 1.5.

A numeric personal make needs both a stored Gameplay projection and model minutes. You can still record a stance and thesis.

How this personal make is calculated

Gameplay mean × (your minutes ÷ model minutes) × (1 + your opportunity change) + your matchup adjustment + your pace/game-script adjustment. It is a sensitivity tool, not a retrained probability, and it does not claim the CORE formula uses these inputs.

DECISION LAB

Loading the immutable evidence map…

AVAILABILITY SNAPSHOT · AUDIT CONTEXT

Availability & Injuries

1 hard availability snapshot flag appears. Player-level observation time is unavailable, so this does not prove the status existed before tip; formula rows remain record-only.

PHOMarta Suarez · Injury/Illness--;ConcussionProtocol (Concussion)OUT

PHOSami Whitcomb · Injury/Illness-LeftKnee;InjuryManagement (Knee)PROB

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

BUILDING

The first frozen read has not posted for this game yet. We publish a checkpointed snapshot before tip instead of inventing a live answer from incomplete inputs.

GAMEPLAY INTELLIGENCE · IMMUTABLE PRE-TIP CAPTURE

Model Outlook

Checking the latest captured lineup, rotation, matchup and market state…

MARKET CONTEXT · NOT A PICK · THIS GAME · T−1H

Prop Watchlist

A shortlist of unusual market lines. Compare this game's checkpoint with a player's typical close, then see whether recent results against their own lines agree. Only the Formula-Qualified Recommendations section contains CORE candidate wagers.

Showing 2 of 43 all props market observations

51props checked

2top observations shown now

0Out / Doubtful / Inactive watches hidden

T−1Hlatest locked check

How these market observations are calculated

Typical market close is the median closing line across all earlier verified games this season—not a scoring average or a fixed 30-game window. Recent results use up to five actual-backed games that were final at least six hours before this checkpoint, so a just-finished game may be intentionally excluded. These are descriptive observations, not win probabilities or automatic picks.

Market expectation up

Upward descriptive pattern—not an Over pick

Expectation upREB · market observation—not a pick

Alyssa Thomas

PHX · F

8.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 7.5
Market vs typical: +1.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: +2.5
Checkpoint move: 0.0

Market + recent results align

This game's REB line is 8.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 7.5 across 31 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 2.5 above their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 22 · 16.0 actual vs 7.5 line (+8.5)

Possible context: Sami Whitcomb — Probable (reported Aug 24, 8:00 PM EDT); Kelsey Plum — Available (reported Aug 24, 8:00 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Market expectation down

Downward descriptive pattern—not an Under pick

Expectation downPTS · market observation—not a pick

Cotie McMahon

WAS · G · vs PHO

6.5Line at T−1H

Typical market close: 7.5
Market vs typical: −1.0
Last 5 vs own closing lines: −1.5
Checkpoint move: −1.0

Market + recent results align

This game's PTS line is 6.5 at T−1H. The typical market close was 7.5 across 12 earlier verified games. Recent results finished a median 1.5 below their own closing lines across 5 included games.

Use this to investigate this game's number—not as an automatic Over/Under.

LATEST INCLUDED · Aug 19 · 2.0 actual vs 8.5 line (−6.5)

Possible context: Shakira Austin — Available (reported Aug 23, 6:30 PM EDT). Timestamped association only; not proof it caused the move.

Showing the clearest market observations for available players—not additional bets.Open the season tape →

The Read

Washington arrives in Phoenix with one of the league's most defensive profiles: a 102.02 offensive rating against a 102.65 defensive rating at 80.99 possessions, which nets out to roughly a -0.6 rating per game. The Mystics are anchored by a defense that allows just 83.14 PPG (2nd in the league) and 30.24 RPG (1st), while ranking first against opposing centers (13.47 PPG allowed) and second against forwards (29.41 PPG). The clear soft spot is the perimeter — opponents' guards put up 38.51 PPG against them (9th in the league) — and that is the most important matchup watch for tonight. Offensively, Washington plays at 49.1% eFG, turns the ball over at a modest 16.5% rate, and generates extra possessions with a 27.7% offensive rebound rate and a 39.0% free-throw rate, though three-point attempt rate, paint points, and fastbreak numbers were not provided.

SUPPORTING RESEARCH · NOT A BETTING RECOMMENDATION

Matchup Outlook

Projected winner

LEAN - MERCURY DATA NOT PROVIDED

Model spread

U 166.5

Model total

40%

Outlook confidence · MODERATE

Team Series History

PHO vs WAS · last 16 meetings · PHO leads

Team results are game-environment context—not validation for an individual player prop. Player-specific opponent history lives inside each recommendation card.

8–8

PHO record

79.3–82.6

Avg score (home)

-3.2

Avg margin

31.4

Avg reb

RECENT MEETINGS

08/09PHO 75 @ WAS 95LPHO