WNBA · Finalupdated 01:51 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

GSV expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 151.5 points · odds to win: GSV 1.10, CON 6.50

Game odds from 5 bookmakers, Tue 22:59 UTC

GSV 89 – CON 64

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

A. Edwards · Over 4.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 1.62Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.00 · Our price was 11.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.22 by Pinnacle (Wed 15:15 UTC); latest 2.18 at Pinnacle (Wed 20:55 UTC). The 5.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

5 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying CON

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burton (30 expected minutes) · Williams (28 min) · +8 more

Connecticut Sunplaying GSV

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 17 actual

SKennedy Burke · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 2 actual

SAaliyah Edwards · 25 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 25 min expected

points 10.5 → 7 actual

SDiamond Miller · 20 min expected

points 10.5 → 8 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Angloma (20 expected minutes) · Beers (20 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 01:51 UTC

Who is out

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

GSV has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 5 players (Salaun, Hayes, Miller, Beers, Angloma) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 42 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 11.8% higher than the last before the start · checked Fri 23:52 UTC

Aaliyah Edwards · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.4 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

4 other players with a posted line

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 7.5 → 17 · 9.5 above the line · played 16.5 min (28 expected) · no final price

Kennedy Burke · points 9.5 → 2 · 7.5 below the line · played 21.5 min (27 expected) · no final price

Saniya Rivers · points 10.5 → 7 · 3.5 below the line · played 21 min (25 expected) · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.1 min (20 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs GSV · last 6 games · GSV leads · CON record 1–5 · average score 68.8–81.7 · CON has lost by 12.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

26 Aug · GSV 89 at CON 64CON lost

10 Jul · GSV 79 at CON 64CON lost

25 May · CON 70 at GSV 97CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.9 points · 32.6 rebounds · 18.2 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.7% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.9 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.2−11.3 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Coolbet first had GSV expected to win by 12.5, expected total 154.5 (Tue 04:37 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 12.5, expected total 150.5 (Tue 21:57 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Aaliyah Edwards · O 4.5 rebounds+100value_edge_pct +14.43 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Aaliyah Edwards Over 4.5 REBWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close −162 · CLV +11.8¢ · bet_clv:421227 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-26T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · actual 5 · 22.4 min · started

Data fetches · 32

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 70 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 72 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 73 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 162 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 144 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 255 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 258 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 286 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 434 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 570 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 22 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 162 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 691 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 953 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 505 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 593 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 647 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 661 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.