WNBA · Finalupdated 01:27 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 162.5 points · odds to win: GSV 2.37, NYL 1.62

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:04 UTC

GSV 79 – NYL 60

Final · 5 of 5 picks won

5 picks checked: 5 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

G. Williams · Over 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 2.02Won +1.30 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.30 · Our price was 6.0% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.02 by FanDuel (Thu 03:05 UTC); latest 2.02 at BetRivers (Thu 23:58 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.65 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

K. Stokes · Under 3.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.00 · last price before start 2.00Won +1.00 per 1 staked

C. Zandalasini · Over 12.5 points + rebounds + assistsWonPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.77Won +0.97 per 1 staked

K. Thornton · Under 6.5 pointsWonPosted at 1.94 · last price before start 1.94Won +0.94 per 1 staked

G. Williams · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.81 · last price before start 1.55Won +0.81 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying NYL

SVeronica Burton · 27 min expected

points 12.5 → 8 actual

SGabby Williams · 23 min expected

assists 2.5 → 3 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 12.5 → 26 actual

SKayla Thornton · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

SKiah Stokes · 20 min expected

points 3.5 → 2 actual

Janelle Salaun · 22 min expected

points 12.5 → 7 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hayes (20 expected minutes) · Charles (16 min) · +6 more

New York Libertyplaying GSV

SBreanna Stewart · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 16 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 33 min expected

points 16.5 → 7 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 32 min expected

points 9.5 → 3 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SPauline Astier · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 4 actual

Marine Johannes · 15 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

3 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (19 expected minutes) · Xu (12 min) · Gardner (6 min)

What could go wrong

updated 01:27 UTC

Who is out

Maley · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:00 UTC) · 3, 5 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Balogun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC)

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 4 players (Fingall, Prechtel, Jocyte, Sowah) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stokes: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 27.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.9 fewer than usual

Williams: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 29.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.6 fewer than usual

Salaun: expected to play 22 minutes, averaged 15.6 in the last 5 games, about 6.4 more than usual

Astier: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 25.7 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 fewer than usual

Johannes: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

Both teams also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out (Fri 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Balogun out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 5 of 5 picks won5 won, 0 lost · +5.02 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 4.2% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 00:52 UTC

Cecilia Zandalasini · points + rebounds + assists 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 30.9 min (20 expected)

Pick: Over 12.5 at 1.97 → Won +0.97 per 1 staked

Kayla Thornton · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.7 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 6.5 at 1.94 → Won +0.94 per 1 staked

Kiah Stokes · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 26 min (20 expected)

Pick: Under 3.5 at 2.00 → Won +1.00 per 1 staked

Gabby Williams · assists 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.3 min (23 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.30 → Won +1.30 per 1 staked

8 other players with a posted line

Marine Johannes · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 12.6 min (15 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.86

Leonie Fiebich · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 32 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.97

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 7 · 9.5 below the line · played 28.9 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.08, Under 1.70

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 7 · 5.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.84

Pauline Astier · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.2 min (20 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.76

Veronica Burton · points 12.5 → 8 · 4.5 below the line · played 27.1 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 25.8 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.01, Under 1.75

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 16 · 3.5 below the line · played 32.6 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs GSV · last 7 games · GSV leads · NYL record 3–4 · average score 73.3–75.7 · NYL has lost by 2.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Aug · GSV 79 at NYL 60NYL lost

28 Jun · NYL 67 at GSV 76NYL lost

21 May · GSV 87 at NYL 70NYL lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.5 points · 32.4 rebounds · 18.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.6% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.4 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.2 points · 31.3 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 34.5% from three-point range · 10.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.5 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.1−11.6 vs average

NYL gives up 86.2 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 3, expected total 162.5 (Thu 02:04 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 3.5, expected total 162.5 (Fri 00:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 5

Gabby Williams · O 2.5 rebounds−124value_edge_pct +10.32 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kiah Stokes · U 3.5 points+100value_edge_pct +9.14 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Gabby Williams · O 2.5 assists+130value_edge_pct +8.46 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Cecilia Zandalasini · O 12.5 pra−103value_edge_pct +5.96 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Kayla Thornton · U 6.5 points−106value_edge_pct +5.95 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 5

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 5

Gabby Williams Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.81ubet −124 → close −182 · CLV +9.2¢ · bet_clv:424830 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.1% · actual 4 · 23.3 min · started

Gabby Williams Over 2.5 ASTWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close +102 · CLV +6.0¢ · bet_clv:424831 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · actual 3 · 23.3 min · started

Cecilia Zandalasini Over 12.5 PRAWIN +0.97ubet −103 → close −130 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:424829 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.8% · actual 26 · 30.9 min · started

Kayla Thornton Under 6.5 PTSWIN +0.94ubet −106 → close −106 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:426829 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.5% · actual 3 · 17.7 min · bench

Kiah Stokes Under 3.5 PTSWIN +1.00ubet +100 → close +100 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:426830 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 54.6% · actual 2 · 26.0 min · started

Data fetches · 54

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 14 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 26 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 125 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 131 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 164 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 334 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 420 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 33 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 256 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 727 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 730 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 730 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 733 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 733 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 449 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 455 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 463 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 769 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 786 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 821 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1253 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 853 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 869 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 873 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.