WNBA · Finalupdated 17:54 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

WAS expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 165.5 points · odds to win: WAS 1.45, PHO 2.85

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 02:04 UTC

WAS 80 – PHO 73

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

M. Onyenwere · Under 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.80Won +0.80 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.80 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.78 by DraftKings (Thu 00:00 UTC); latest 1.73 at BetOnline.ag (Fri 01:59 UTC). The 2.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.55 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying PHO

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points + assists 16.5 → 21 actual

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Citron (31 expected minutes) · Austin (30 min) · +8 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying WAS

SAlyssa Thomas · 34 min expected

points 14.5 → 4 actual

SKahleah Copper · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 35 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 28 min expected

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

SNatasha Mack · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 10 actual

Valeriane Ayayi · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Kelsey Plum · Out · left lower leg

points 13.5 → did not play, so no result

1 player has no line from any bookmaker: Westbeld (10 expected minutes)

What could go wrong

updated 17:54 UTC

Who is out

Out Plum · earlier listed as may not play (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 17, 14 and 28 min in the last 3 games

Dugalic · did not play last game

Prosper · did not play last game

Littlepage-Buggs · did not play last game

Olsen · did not play last game

Harmon · did not play last game

Out Suarez · - · PHO

WAS has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Dugalic, Prosper, Brochant, Whitcomb) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thomas: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 28.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Ayayi: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 14.1 in the last 5 games, about 8.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 10 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 64 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Plum out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Dugalic out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prosper out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Littlepage-Buggs out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Olsen out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harmon out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.80 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 02:52 UTC

8 other players with a posted line

Valeriane Ayayi · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 11.8 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Kahleah Copper · points 19.5 → 35 · 15.5 above the line · played 32.3 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.96

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 4 · 10.5 below the line · played 31.5 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Noemie Brochant · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 28.4 min (28 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Sami Whitcomb · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 18.8 min (28 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.02

Kiki Iriafen · points + assists 16.5 → 21 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.3 min (30 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.86

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.6 min (25 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.07, Under 1.70

Kelsey Plum · points 13.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs WAS · last 16 games · PHO leads · PHO record 8–8 · average score 79.3–82.6 · PHO has lost by 3.2 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

27 Aug · WAS 80 at PHO 73PHO lost

25 Aug · WAS 94 at PHO 84PHO lost

9 Aug · PHO 75 at WAS 95PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.2−4.0 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 3.5, expected total 167 (Thu 01:33 UTC) and later WAS expected to win by 6, expected total 165.5 (Fri 02:04 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Michaela Onyenwere · U 2.5 rebounds−125value_edge_pct +4.91 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 6

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Michaela Onyenwere Under 2.5 REBWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −125 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:425742 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-27T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.3% · actual 0 · 16.5 min · bench

Data fetches · 42

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 123 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 138 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 163 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 196 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 323 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 334 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 352 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 381 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 264 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 545 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 674 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 69 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 658 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 322 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1065 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 638 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 660 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 843 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 883 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 923 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 937 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 939 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.