WNBA · Finalupdated 13:13 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Indiana Fever

at Indiana Fever

IND expected to win by about 17 · both teams together expected to score about 179.5 points · odds to win: CON 12.75, IND 1.05

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:33 UTC

CON 91 – IND 111

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, IND = Indiana Fever.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying IND

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 29 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SAaliyah Edwards · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

SDiamond Miller · 27 min expected

points 10.5 → 19 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · Out · right knee

rebounds 6.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Angloma (23 expected minutes) · Beers (23 min) · +4 more

Indiana Feverplaying CON

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

points 22.5 → 34 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 34 actual

SAliyah Boston · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

SLexie Hull · 18 min expected

points 4.5 → 7 actual

Monique Billings · 18 min expected

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 1 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Hines-Allen (10 expected minutes) · Harris (10 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 13:13 UTC

Who is out

Onyiah · did not play last game

Out Marshall · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 00:15 UTC) · 0, 8 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Beers · new starter

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Lith, Kneepkens, Jackson, Hull, Billings, Cunningham) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Rivers: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 23.0 in the last 5 games, about 5.0 more than usual

Timpson: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 12.3 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 140 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Onyiah out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Marshall out (Fri 00:15 UTC) · did not play

Beers new starter · started, 22.1 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Monique Billings · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 7.6 min (18 expected) · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 7.5 → 1 · 6.5 below the line · played 14.1 min (18 expected) · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 19 · 8.5 above the line · played 20.3 min (27 expected) · no final price

Lexie Hull · points 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.3 min (18 expected) · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 22.5 → 34 · 11.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (34 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.79

Kelsey Mitchell · points 25.5 → 34 · 8.5 above the line · played 31.2 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.77

Makayla Timpson · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (28 expected) · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 25 min (29 expected) · no final price

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 24.4 min (29 expected) · no final price

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.4 min (28 expected) · no final price

Aaliyah Edwards · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · rebounds 6.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

IND vs CON · last 22 games · CON leads · IND record 7–15 · average score 81.4–85.1 · IND has lost by 3.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · CON 91 at IND 111IND won

22 Jul · CON 88 at IND 123IND won

13 Jun · IND 85 at CON 75IND won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 16.5, expected total 179.5 (Fri 00:35 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 17, expected total 179.5 (Fri 23:33 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 28 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 28 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 30 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 37 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 102 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 130 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 140 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 384 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 636 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 155 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 365 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1008 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 394 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 406 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 423 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 424 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 590 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 680 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 682 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6004 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6010 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6011 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6012 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6013 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6014 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6015 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.