WNBA · Finalupdated 23:46 UTC

Portland Fire vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 13.5 · both teams together expected to score about 179 points · odds to win: POR 7.13, ATL 1.12

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:33 UTC

POR 101 – ATL 83

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying ATL

SBridget Carleton · 33 min expected

points 15.5 → 4 actual

SCarla Leite · 29 min expected

points 15.5 → 26 actual

SEmily Engstler · 29 min expected

points 10.5 → 25 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Puoch (19 expected minutes) · Samuelson (18 min) · +5 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying POR

SAngel Reese · 35 min expected

points 18.5 → 16 actual

SRhyne Howard · 35 min expected

points 18.5 → 26 actual

SAllisha Gray · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 11 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 32 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

SJordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 10.5 → 11 actual

Isobel Borlase · 15 min expected

points 5.5 → 3 actual

Madina Okot · 12 min expected

rebounds 4.5 → 1 actual

1 player has no line from any bookmaker: Paopao (6 expected minutes)

What could go wrong

updated 23:46 UTC

Who is out

Bonner · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 30, 14 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Samuelson · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 16, 9 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Oblak · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:45 UTC) · 22, 11 and 8 min in the last 3 games

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 4 players (Engstler, Leite, Reese, Howard) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Okot: expected to play 12 minutes, averaged 4.4 in the last 5 games, about 7.6 more than usual

Borlase: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 14 of the 132 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bonner out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Samuelson out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · played

Flagged before the game: Oblak out (Wed 23:45 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Emily Engstler · points 10.5 → 25 · 14.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (29 expected) · no final price

Madina Okot · rebounds 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 6.7 min (12 expected) · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 4 · 11.5 below the line · played 33 min (33 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → 26 · 10.5 above the line · played 29 min (29 expected) · no final price

Isobel Borlase · points 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 3.6 min (15 expected) · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 19.5 → 11 · 8.5 below the line · played 34.8 min (34 expected) · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 18.5 → 26 · 7.5 above the line · played 38.4 min (35 expected) · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (32 expected) · no final price

Angel Reese · points 18.5 → 16 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.5 min (35 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.6 min (31 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs POR · last 3 games · POR leads · ATL record 1–2 · average score 87.0–89.7 · ATL has lost by 2.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · POR 101 at ATL 83ATL lost

11 Jul · POR 102 at ATL 92ATL lost

29 May · ATL 86 at POR 66ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.7 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.5% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.9 vs average

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.1−3.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 44 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 167 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 173 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 182 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 189 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 192 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 199 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 85 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 757 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 945 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 56 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 161 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6000 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6008 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6007 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6008 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6009 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6010 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6009 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.