WNBA · Finalupdated 19:17 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Las Vegas Aces

at Las Vegas Aces

LVA expected to win by about 16 · both teams together expected to score about 175.5 points · odds to win: TOR 9.24, LVA 1.08

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 02:06 UTC

TOR 73 – LVA 93

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, LVA = Las Vegas Aces.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 7 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying LVA

SKia Nurse · 26 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 15 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 26 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 6 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Rice (32 expected minutes) · Harrison (30 min) · +5 more

Las Vegas Acesplaying TOR

SJackie Young · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 23 actual

SA'ja Wilson · 32 min expected

points 25.5 → 27 actual

SChelsea Gray · 32 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

SBrianna Turner · 15 min expected

points + rebounds 7.5 → 9 actual

Jewell Loyd · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 6 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Parker-Tyus (15 expected minutes) · Yamamoto (15 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 19:17 UTC

Who is out

Smith · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 19, 18 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Latson · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 00:00 UTC) · 3, 3 and 3 min in the last 3 games

Nurse · new starter · 6 of 246 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

TOR has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 6 players (Fagbenle, Nurse, Turner, Talbot, Parker-Tyus, Yamamoto) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 13 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 8 of the 74 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Smith out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Latson out (Thu 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Nurse new starter · started, 24.6 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

7 other players with a posted line

Temi Fagbenle · points + rebounds + assists 14.5 → 6 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.5 min (26 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.92

Brianna Turner · points + rebounds 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.6 min (15 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.04

Jewell Loyd · points 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.7 min (24 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.87

Jackie Young · points 20.5 → 23 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.1 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.82

Chelsea Gray · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.4 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Kia Nurse · points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 15 · 1.5 above the line · played 24.6 min (26 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.85, Under 1.91

A'ja Wilson · points 25.5 → 27 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LVA vs TOR · last 3 games · LVA leads · LVA record 3–0 · average score 96.7–78.0 · LVA has won by 18.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · TOR 73 at LVA 93LVA won

23 Aug · LVA 88 at TOR 78LVA won

20 Jul · LVA 109 at TOR 83LVA won

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

LVA gives up85.9 points · 33.9 rebounds · 18.8 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.3% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 13.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

LVA gives up 85.9 points a game · 6th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had LVA expected to win by 15.5, expected total 178.5 (Thu 23:33 UTC) and later LVA expected to win by 16, expected total 175.5 (Sat 02:06 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 38

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 49 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 52 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 54 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 57 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 77 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 78 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 95 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 116 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 156 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 159 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 190 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 126 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 154 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 154 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

odds player timeline (pr)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pr)ok 200 · 237 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.