WNBA · Finalupdated 10:17 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

WAS expected to win by about 5 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: WAS 1.45, LAS 2.80

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 01:37 UTC

WAS 82 – LAS 88

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying LAS

SSonia Citron · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 22 actual

SKiki Iriafen · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

SShakira Austin · 30 min expected

points 17.5 → 19 actual

SGeorgia Amoore · 27 min expected

points 6.5 → 9 actual

SMichaela Onyenwere · 21 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Lauren Betts · 20 min expected

points 6.5 → 6 actual

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton · 19 min expected

points 4.5 → 6 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: McMahon (17 expected minutes) · Florez (5 min) · Dugalic · +1 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying WAS

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

assists 2.5 → 5 actual

SRae Burrell · 30 min expected

points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 21 actual

SDearica Hamby · 27 min expected

assists 2.5 → 1 actual

SErica Wheeler · 25 min expected

points + assists 11.5 → 16 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Atkins (27 expected minutes) · Brink (20 min) · +5 more

What could go wrong

updated 10:17 UTC

Who is out

Park · did not play last game

Out Pili · coach’sdecision · LAS

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Austin, Iriafen, Morgan, Makani, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Laney-Hamilton: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 12.5 in the last 5 games, about 6.5 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 17.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 11 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 6 of the 90 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Park out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Nneka Ogwumike · assists 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (30 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.80

Dearica Hamby · assists 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.9 min (27 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 2.17, Under 1.63

Erica Wheeler · points + assists 11.5 → 16 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.4 min (25 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.97

Georgia Amoore · points 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.6 min (27 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.92

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton · points 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.3 min (19 expected) · no final price

Michaela Onyenwere · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (21 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.73

Sonia Citron · points 17.5 → 22 · 4.5 above the line · played 32.1 min (31 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.89

Kiki Iriafen · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.3 min (30 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.99

Shakira Austin · points 17.5 → 19 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.1 min (30 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Lauren Betts · points 6.5 → 6 · 0.5 below the line · played 17.6 min (20 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.87

Rae Burrell · points + rebounds + assists 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.4 min (30 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs WAS · last 16 games · LAS leads · LAS record 10–6 · average score 82.3–81.0 · LAS has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Aug · WAS 82 at LAS 88LAS won

15 Aug · LAS 70 at WAS 80LAS lost

29 May · LAS 92 at WAS 87LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.1−4.0 vs average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.1+4.2 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had WAS expected to win by 5, expected total 168 (Fri 01:37 UTC) and had not changed it by Fri 01:37 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 27 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 29 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 105 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 118 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 127 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 327 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 525 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 276 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 283 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pa)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 334 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 911 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 441 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 446 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 462 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 476 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 482 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 725 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 742 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 749 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 763 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 776 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 779 ms

odds player timeline (pa)ok 200 · 781 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 790 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 842 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1032 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1093 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.