WNBA · Finalupdated 03:18 UTC

Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

NYL expected to win by about 9 · both teams together expected to score about 183 points · odds to win: CHI 4.47, NYL 1.23

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 17:06 UTC

CHI 66 – NYL 85

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, NYL = New York Liberty.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 3 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 3 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying NYL

SAzura Stevens · 28 min expected

points 10.5 → 6 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 27 min expected

points 15.5 → 9 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 26 min expected

points 9.5 → 8 actual

SNatasha Cloud · 26 min expected

points 10.5 → 14 actual

SSydney Taylor · 20 min expected

points 12.5 → 13 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Coulibaly (16 expected minutes) · Jaquez (16 min) · +3 more

New York Libertyplaying CHI

SBreanna Stewart · 32 min expected

points 19.5 → 13 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 11 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 2 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 11 actual

SPauline Astier · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Marine Johannes · 15 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (14 expected minutes) · Xu (11 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 03:18 UTC

Who is out

Balogun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC)

Sabally · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 8, 27 and 17 min in the last 3 games

Out Carrington · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 00:15 UTC) · 4, 18 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 17:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Coulibaly, Sheldon, Jaquez, Carrera, Maley) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stewart: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.5 in the last 5 games, about 7.5 fewer than usual

Johannes: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 9.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 20 of the 144 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Balogun out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrington out (Wed 00:15 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 3 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Mon 17:52 UTC

11 other players with a posted line

Marine Johannes · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 3.5 min (15 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.81, Under —

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 2 · 14.5 below the line · played 23.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Azura Stevens · points 10.5 → 6 · 4.5 below the line · played 19.7 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Kamilla Cardoso · points 15.5 → 9 · 6.5 below the line · played 20.1 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Natasha Cloud · points 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 20.8 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.84, Under 1.90

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 13 · 6.5 below the line · played 26.5 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.96

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 19.2 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.92

Courtney Vandersloot · points 9.5 → 8 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.3 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.92

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 25 min (24 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.02, Under —

Leonie Fiebich · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.89, Under 1.85

Sydney Taylor · points 12.5 → 13 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.9 min (20 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs CHI · last 23 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–9 · average score 83.9–82.5 · NYL has won by 1.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · CHI 66 at NYL 85NYL won

18 Aug · NYL 86 at CHI 93NYL lost

22 Jul · CHI 94 at NYL 95NYL won

17 Jun · NYL 96 at CHI 95NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.2+3.5 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.2about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had NYL expected to win by 9, expected total 179.5 (Sat 02:15 UTC) and later NYL expected to win by 9, expected total 183 (Sat 17:06 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 50

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 28 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 29 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 31 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 46 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 60 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 63 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 64 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 66 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 69 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 75 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 8 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 489 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 77 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 338 ms

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sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 359 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 885 ms

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odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1173 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.