WNBA · Finalupdated 20:21 UTC

Toronto Tempo vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

No game odds posted yet

TOR 69 – PHO 101

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

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How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: TOR = Toronto Tempo, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

N. Mack · Over 10.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.38 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.38 · Our price was 9.7% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 1.88 by Pinnacle (Sat 15:52 UTC); latest 1.89 at Pinnacle (Sun 01:40 UTC). The line moved from 9.5 to 10.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 2.00 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

5 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Toronto Tempoplaying PHO

SKiki Rice · 32 min expected

points 16.5 → 14 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 30 min expected

points 12.5 → 10 actual

SKia Nurse · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

STemi Fagbenle · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 6 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Key (20 expected minutes) · Bankole (18 min) · +2 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying TOR

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Thomas (35 expected minutes) · Brochant (26 min) · +8 more

What could go wrong

updated 20:21 UTC

Who is out

Copper · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Tue 01:30 UTC) · 32, 34 and 32 min in the last 3 games

Held · new starter · 8 of 231 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

May not play Suarez · - · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 2 players (Fagbenle, Nurse) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

TOR had 12 days off before this game · PHO had 12 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 6 of the 54 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Copper out (Tue 01:30 UTC) · did not play

Held new starter · started, 20.7 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 9.7% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 02:52 UTC

5 other players with a posted line

Kia Nurse · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 17.8 min (26 expected) · no final price

Temi Fagbenle · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.5 min (26 expected) · no final price

Laura Juskaite · points 12.5 → 10 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.2 min (30 expected) · no final price

Kiki Rice · points 16.5 → 14 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (32 expected) · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs TOR · last 3 games · PHO leads · PHO record 2–1 · average score 93.3–82.3 · PHO has won by 11 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Aug · TOR 69 at PHO 101PHO won

27 Jun · PHO 89 at TOR 80PHO won

19 May · TOR 98 at PHO 90PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.1+7.3 vs average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Natasha Mack · O 10.5 points+138value_edge_pct +14.77 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Natasha Mack Over 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +138 → close −107 · CLV +9.7¢ · bet_clv:486528 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-29T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.2% · conversion_unlucky · actual 8 · 19.4 min · bench

Data fetches · 33

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 128 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 138 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 180 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 190 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 219 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 344 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 359 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 371 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 401 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 292 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 671 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 26 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 733 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 102 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 210 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1140 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1044 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 752 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 827 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 887 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 896 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.