WNBA · Finalupdated 13:30 UTC

Connecticut Sun vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 16.5 · both teams together expected to score about 167 points · odds to win: CON 11.02, DAL 1.07

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Mon 00:32 UTC

CON 71 – DAL 97

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CON = Connecticut Sun, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Connecticut Sunplaying DAL

SAaliyah Edwards · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 26 actual

SCharlisse Leger-Walker · 28 min expected

points 7.5 → 17 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 27 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SDiamond Miller · 26 min expected

points 10.5 → 8 actual

Raegan Beers · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 4 actual

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · Out · right knee

points 10.5 → did not play, so no result

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Angloma (25 expected minutes) · Lith (16 min) · +3 more

Dallas Wingsplaying CON

SArike Ogunbowale · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 18 actual

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 21.5 → 15 actual

SJessica Shepard · 31 min expected

points 15.5 → 17 actual

SAwak Kuier · 28 min expected

points 8.5 → 4 actual

SAlanna Smith · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 7 actual

Maddy Siegrist · 18 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Clark (20 expected minutes) · Sims (5 min) · +2 more

What could go wrong

updated 13:30 UTC

Who is out

Angloma · new starter

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Laksa · personal reasons · DAL

Out Nelson-Ododa · right knee · CON

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Mon 00:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Edwards, Leger-Walker, Sims, Sutton) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CON had 13 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 130 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Angloma new starter · started, 21.0 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 6 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Wed 00:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Charlisse Leger-Walker · points 7.5 → 17 · 9.5 above the line · played 28.9 min (28 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.12, Under —

Aaliyah Edwards · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 28.1 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Awak Kuier · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 20.2 min (28 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.81

Maddy Siegrist · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 16.1 min (18 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Raegan Beers · points 6.5 → 4 · 2.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (23 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.78, Under 1.98

Paige Bueckers · points 21.5 → 15 · 6.5 below the line · played 25.4 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.93, Under 1.83

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 8 · 2.5 below the line · played 31.3 min (26 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 2.20, Under —

Alanna Smith · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 16.8 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.95

Jessica Shepard · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.4 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.79

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 26.2 min (27 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.96

Arike Ogunbowale · points 17.5 → 18 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.3 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Olivia Nelson-Ododa · points 10.5 → did not play, so no result · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.76

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs CON · last 19 games · DAL leads · DAL record 10–9 · average score 83.1–82.7 · DAL has won by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Aug · CON 71 at DAL 97DAL won

2 Aug · CON 63 at DAL 83DAL won

2 Jul · DAL 86 at CON 83DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.1about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 14.5, expected total 165.5 (Sun 12:13 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 16.5, expected total 167 (Mon 00:32 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 24 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 39 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 43 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 44 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 44 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 61 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 139 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 326 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 518 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 239 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 280 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 286 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 403 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 424 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 426 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 428 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 439 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 460 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 462 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 485 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1075 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 617 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 931 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 992 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1008 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1009 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1010 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.