WNBA · Finalupdated 22:35 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

GSV expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 160.5 points · odds to win: GSV 1.39, POR 3.12

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:03 UTC

GSV 86 – POR 69

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, POR = Portland Fire.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. Thornton · Over 9.5 pointsWonPosted at 2.30 · last price before start 1.88Won +1.30 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.30 · Our price was 9.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.00 by FanDuel (Sun 00:43 UTC); latest 2.18 at BetRivers (Sun 22:57 UTC). The line moved from 7.5 to 9.5.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.95 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying POR

STiffany Hayes · 30 min expected

points 12.5 → 18 actual

SVeronica Burton · 30 min expected

points 13.5 → 11 actual

SKaila Charles · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

SKayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 9.5 → 17 actual

SKiah Stokes · 25 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 1 actual

Kaitlyn Chen · 15 min expected

points 9.5 → 15 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Amihere (15 expected minutes) · Prechtel (10 min) · +3 more

Portland Fireplaying GSV

SBridget Carleton · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 11 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

SEmily Engstler · 26 min expected

points 11.5 → 12 actual

SNyadiew Puoch · 23 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

STeja Oblak · 16 min expected

points 5.5 → 5 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Winterburn (20 expected minutes) · Samuelson (17 min) · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 22:35 UTC

Who is out

May not play Samuelson · left knee · POR

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 5 players (Fingall, Prechtel, Jocyte, Oblak, Harrison) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Hayes: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 16.7 in the last 5 games, about 13.3 more than usual

Chen: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 15 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 105 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.30 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 9.8% higher than the last before the start · 2 lines checked, 1 scored but not picked · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

Kayla Thornton · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.1 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 2.30 → Won +1.30 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.4 min (25 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.05

Kaitlyn Chen · points 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 27.2 min (15 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Tiffany Hayes · points 12.5 → 18 · 5.5 above the line · played 20.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.05

Kaila Charles · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 30 min (25 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.82

Bridget Carleton · points 15.5 → 11 · 4.5 below the line · played 30.4 min (32 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.03, Under 1.74

Nyadiew Puoch · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 22.4 min (23 expected) · BetRivers odds: Over 1.95, Under —

Veronica Burton · points 13.5 → 11 · 2.5 below the line · played 29.4 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.72, Under 2.05

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 23.8 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 2.09, Under 1.69

Teja Oblak · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.9 min (16 expected) · FanDuel odds: Over 2.06, Under 1.72

Emily Engstler · points 11.5 → 12 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.4 min (26 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.94, Under 1.80

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs GSV · last 4 games · GSV leads · POR record 1–3 · average score 75.5–86.3 · POR has lost by 10.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · GSV 82 at POR 90POR won

18 Sep · POR 66 at GSV 82POR lost

30 Aug · GSV 86 at POR 69POR lost

2 Jun · POR 77 at GSV 95POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.5 points · 32.4 rebounds · 18.0 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.6% of shots · 33.0% from three-point range · 13.4 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.5 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.1−11.6 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.1+3.9 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 5, expected total 157.5 (Sun 12:13 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 6, expected total 160.5 (Sun 23:03 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Kayla Thornton · O 9.5 points+130value_edge_pct +10.14 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Kayla Thornton · O 8.5 points+102value_edge_pct +6.40 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Kayla Thornton Over 9.5 PTSWIN +1.30ubet +130 → close −114 · CLV +9.8¢ · bet_clv:543528 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.9% · actual 17 · 25.1 min · started

Kayla Thornton Over 8.5 PTSWIN +1.02ubet +102 → close −128 · CLV +6.6¢ · bet_clv:525884 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 52.7% · actual 17 · 25.1 min · started

Data fetches · 50

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 86 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 163 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 165 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 393 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 394 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 456 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 465 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 375 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 925 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1017 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 72 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 249 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 256 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 307 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 339 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 372 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 389 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 426 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1289 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1325 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1327 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1342 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1380 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1478 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1485 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1564 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.