WNBA · Finalupdated 15:39 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Seattle Storm

at Seattle Storm

LAS expected to win by about 1.5 · both teams together expected to score about 175 points · odds to win: LAS 1.76, SEA 2.13

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 21:03 UTC

LAS 90 – SEA 74

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, SEA = Seattle Storm.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We checked 0 lines; none paid at least 1.70, so there are no picks. Normal, not an error.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying SEA

SAriel Atkins · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 4 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 23 actual

SRae Burrell · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 22 actual

SErica Wheeler · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 9 actual

SDearica Hamby · 24 min expected

points 12.5 → 6 actual

Cameron Brink · 19 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Makani (19 expected minutes) · Gray (11 min) · +3 more

Seattle Stormplaying LAS

SJade Melbourne · 31 min expected

points 11.5 → 5 actual

SDominique Malonga · 29 min expected

points 19.5 → 17 actual

SFlau'jae Johnson · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 19 actual

SEzi Magbegor · 22 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

SJordan Horston · 15 min expected

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Zia Cooke · 23 min expected

points 8.5 → 14 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (20 expected minutes) · Dolson (20 min) · +3 more

What could go wrong

updated 15:39 UTC

Who is out

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Out Mwenentanda · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 01:00 UTC) · 12, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

May not play Cannon · rightknee · LAS

Out Hiedeman · left shoulder · SEA

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 21:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

4 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 1 player with a line is expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 4 players (Brink, Makani, Dolson, Samuelson) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Wheeler: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 18.4 in the last 5 games, about 7.6 more than usual

Atkins: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Horston: expected to play only 15 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Melbourne: expected to play 31 minutes, averaged 22.4 in the last 5 games, about 8.6 more than usual

Cooke: expected to play 23 minutes, averaged 14.7 in the last 5 games, about 8.3 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 13 days off before this game · SEA had 14 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 129 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Mwenentanda out (Fri 01:00 UTC) · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below · checked Tue 21:52 UTC

12 other players with a posted line

Zia Cooke · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.8 min (23 expected) · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.97, Under 1.80

Jade Melbourne · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 21.8 min (31 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.76, Under 1.99

Jordan Horston · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 13.2 min (15 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.79, Under 1.93

Ariel Atkins · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.9 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.78

Dearica Hamby · points 12.5 → 6 · 6.5 below the line · played 23.7 min (24 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 22 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.7 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 28.8 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.85

Flau'jae Johnson · points 14.5 → 19 · 4.5 above the line · played 28.7 min (27 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.77, Under 1.98

Erica Wheeler · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.9 min (26 expected) · DraftKings odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.80

Dominique Malonga · points 19.5 → 17 · 2.5 below the line · played 34.2 min (29 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Ezi Magbegor · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.4 min (22 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.06

Cameron Brink · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.6 min (19 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.93

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SEA vs LAS · last 18 games · SEA leads · SEA record 10–8 · average score 86.7–81.9 · SEA has won by 4.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Aug · LAS 90 at SEA 74SEA lost

6 Jul · SEA 82 at LAS 64SEA won

10 Jun · LAS 88 at SEA 83SEA lost

1 Sep · LAS 91 at SEA 85SEA lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

SEA gives up88.9 points · 36.3 rebounds · 21.1 assists · 8.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.0% of shots · 32.7% from three-point range · 12.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.1+4.2 vs average

SEA gives up 88.9 points a game · 10th of 15 · league average 87.1+1.8 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SEA expected to win by 1, expected total 172 (Sun 12:13 UTC) and later LAS expected to win by 1.5, expected total 175 (Sun 21:03 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 53

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 43 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 46 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 85 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 89 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 126 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 130 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 71 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 259 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 270 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 274 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 478 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 876 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 35 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 36 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 48 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 94 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 884 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 887 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1035 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1082 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.