WNBA · Finalupdated 00:10 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

MIN expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: MIN 1.68, ATL 2.26

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 19:03 UTC

MIN 81 – ATL 89

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

K. McBride · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 2.40 · last price before start 2.40Won +1.40 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.40 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

This published pick uses a model-sized stake of 1.60 units. The public Results/Ledger CORE benchmark grades each eligible priced signal at a flat 1 unit and can cover more signals than this game card.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying ATL

SOlivia Miles · 34 min expected

points 18.5 → 21 actual

SKayla McBride · 33 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 17 actual

SCourtney Williams · 31 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

SNatasha Howard · 28 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

Nia Coffey · 16 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

2 players have no line from any bookmaker: Caldwell (10 expected minutes) · Joklova (5 min)

Atlanta Dreamplaying MIN

SRhyne Howard · 33 min expected

points 17.5 → 16 actual

SAllisha Gray · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 23 actual

SAngel Reese · 32 min expected

points 15.5 → 15 actual

SJordin Canada · 31 min expected

points 9.5 → 16 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 7 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Bonner (14 expected minutes) · Okot (12 min) · +4 more

What could go wrong

updated 00:10 UTC

Who is out

Nivar · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 1, 1 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 19:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Collier, McBride, Reese, Gray) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Howard: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 10.5 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.9 in the last 5 games, about 6.1 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 8 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 136 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +1.40 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Tue 19:52 UTC

Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 37.4 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.40 → Won +1.40 per 1 staked

10 other players with a posted line

Jordin Canada · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 36 min (31 expected) · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 17.5 → 23 · 5.5 above the line · played 35 min (32 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 30.6 min (28 expected) · no final price

Nia Coffey · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.9 min (16 expected) · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 18.5 → 21 · 2.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (34 expected) · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 16 · 1.5 below the line · played 35 min (33 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 7 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.3 min (26 expected) · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 30.5 min (31 expected) · no final price

Angel Reese · points 15.5 → 15 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (32 expected) · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 17.5 → 17 · 0.5 below the line · played 35 min (33 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs MIN · last 16 games · MIN leads · ATL record 7–9 · average score 80.3–83.4 · ATL has lost by 3.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

30 Aug · MIN 81 at ATL 89ATL won

27 May · ATL 81 at MIN 96ATL lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up84.1 points · 31.7 rebounds · 18.9 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.5% of shots · 34.8% from three-point range · 15.7 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.1−3.2 vs average

ATL gives up 84.1 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.1−3.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kayla McBride · O 2.5 rebounds+140value_edge_pct +9.06 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Kayla McBride Over 2.5 REBWIN +1.40ubet +140 → close +140 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:524346 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-08-30T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.4% · actual 3 · 37.4 min · started

Data fetches · 50

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 59 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 60 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 75 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 77 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 77 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 80 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 95 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 101 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 128 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 129 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 56 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 221 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 35 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 49 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 99 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 223 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 263 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 327 ms

odds game timelinefailed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6001 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6002 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6003 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6007 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed · 6008 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed · 6008 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.