WNBA · Finalupdated 04:49 UTC

Los Angeles Sparks vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

DAL expected to win by about 9 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: LAS 3.89, DAL 1.28

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:08 UTC

LAS 77 – DAL 97

Final · 2 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 2 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: LAS = Los Angeles Sparks, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

J. Shepard · Over 4.5 assistsWonPosted at 1.82 · last price before start 1.82Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.82 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

First offered at 2.02 by Pinnacle (Thu 12:04 UTC); latest 2.27 at Pinnacle (Thu 17:49 UTC). The 5.5 line itself has not moved.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.55 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

A. Ogunbowale · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.80 · last price before start 1.66Won +0.80 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 11 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Los Angeles Sparksplaying DAL

SAriel Atkins · 30 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

SNneka Ogwumike · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 18 actual

SRae Burrell · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 12 actual

SDearica Hamby · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 14 actual

SErica Wheeler · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Cameron Brink · 18 min expected

points 12.5 → 9 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Makani (19 expected minutes) · Gray (12 min) · +4 more

Dallas Wingsplaying LAS

SPaige Bueckers · 33 min expected

points 20.5 → 19 actual

SArike Ogunbowale · 32 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

SJessica Shepard · 30 min expected

assists 4.5 → 12 actual

SMaddy Siegrist · 17 min expected

points 8.5 → 12 actual

SAwak Kuier · 13 min expected

points 9.5 → 7 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sims (24 expected minutes) · Clark (18 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 04:49 UTC

Who is out

Out Smith · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 23:30 UTC) · 17, 24 and 22 min in the last 3 games

Sims · earlier listed as may not play, now available (changed Sat 16:00 UTC) · 9, 4 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Siegrist · new starter · 6 of 288 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Gray · did not play last game

Out Mwenentanda · coach’sdecision · LAS

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Nye, Cannon, Morgan, Kuier, Yueru) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Atkins: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 23.2 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 more than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 19.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.2 more than usual

Brink: expected to play 18 minutes, averaged 23.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.6 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

LAS had 38 days off before this game · DAL had 30 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 12 of the 149 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Smith out (Wed 23:30 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sims out (Sat 16:00 UTC) · played

Siegrist new starter · started, 23.3 min

Flagged before the game: Gray out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 2 of 2 picks won2 won, 0 lost · +1.62 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.4% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 00:52 UTC

Jessica Shepard · assists 4.5 → 12 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.8 min (30 expected)

Pick: Over 4.5 at 1.82 → Won +0.82 per 1 staked

Arike Ogunbowale · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.3 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.80 → Won +0.80 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Erica Wheeler · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 11.8 min (26 expected) · no final price

Ariel Atkins · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 22.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Maddy Siegrist · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 23.3 min (17 expected) · no final price

Cameron Brink · points 12.5 → 9 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.7 min (18 expected) · no final price

Awak Kuier · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.3 min (13 expected) · no final price

Dearica Hamby · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 20.9 min (28 expected) · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 14.5 → 12 · 2.5 below the line · played 24.3 min (29 expected) · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 16.5 → 18 · 1.5 above the line · played 28.5 min (30 expected) · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 20.5 → 19 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.6 min (33 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs LAS · last 19 games · LAS leads · DAL record 8–11 · average score 88.3–87.9 · DAL has won by 0.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

17 Sep · LAS 77 at DAL 97DAL won

19 Jul · LAS 82 at DAL 90DAL won

5 Jun · DAL 104 at LAS 96DAL won

7 Sep · DAL 77 at LAS 91DAL lost

What each defense gives up per game

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had DAL expected to win by 7, expected total 175.5 (Wed 05:58 UTC) and later DAL expected to win by 9, expected total 177.5 (Fri 00:08 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Jessica Shepard · O 4.5 assists−122value_edge_pct +5.01 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Arike Ogunbowale · O 2.5 rebounds−125value_edge_pct +4.77 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 4

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Jessica Shepard Over 4.5 ASTWIN +0.82ubet −122 → close −122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:1087277 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.7% · actual 12 · 27.8 min · started

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.80ubet −125 → close −152 · CLV +4.8¢ · bet_clv:1111417 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 3 · 27.3 min · started

Data fetches · 51

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 22 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 98 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 107 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 113 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 120 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 189 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 310 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 169 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 170 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 191 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 193 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 206 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 233 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 258 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 271 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 293 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 872 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 603 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.