WNBA · Finalupdated 16:02 UTC

Washington Mystics vs Chicago Sky

at Chicago Sky

No game odds posted yet

WAS 110 – CHI 80

Final · 1 of 2 picks won

2 picks checked: 1 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: WAS = Washington Mystics, CHI = Chicago Sky.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. Cardoso · Under 2.5 assistsWonPosted at 2.22 · last price before start 2.22Won +1.22 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.22 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

S. Austin · Under 17.5 pointsLostPosted at 1.97 · last price before start 1.78Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view · 23 rostered players. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Washington Mysticsplaying CHI

13 players have no line from any bookmaker: Austin (33 expected minutes) · Iriafen (32 min) · +11 more

Chicago Skyplaying WAS

10 players have no line from any bookmaker: Stevens (30 expected minutes) · Cardoso (27 min) · +8 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 16:02 UTC

Who is out

Martin · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 9, 17 and 5 min in the last 3 games

Maly · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 19, 22 and 23 min in the last 3 games

Citron · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:15 UTC) · 38, 35 and 28 min in the last 3 games

McMahon · new starter

Out Carrington · left foot · CHI

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 4 players (Harmon, Olsen, Williams, Banham) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

WAS had 31 days off before this game · CHI had 37 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

Full player-line feed has no entries in this view. 2 published picks use separate saved records.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Martin out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maly out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Citron out (Sat 20:15 UTC) · did not play

McMahon new starter · started, 20.3 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 2 picks won1 won, 1 lost · +0.22 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 2.7% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 00:52 UTC

No player-line entries were captured in this roster view.

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CHI vs WAS · last 19 games · WAS leads · CHI record 5–14 · average score 77.3–83.1 · CHI has lost by 5.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

24 Sep · CHI 93 at WAS 101CHI lost

17 Sep · WAS 110 at CHI 80CHI lost

2 Jun · CHI 72 at WAS 90CHI lost

What each defense gives up per game

WAS gives up83.2 points · 30.0 rebounds · 19.8 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.1% of shots · 32.9% from three-point range · 11.9 opponent turnovers

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

WAS gives up 83.2 points a game · 3rd of 15 · league average 87.0−3.9 vs average

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Kamilla Cardoso · U 2.5 assists+122value_edge_pct +26.18 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Shakira Austin · U 17.5 points−103value_edge_pct +5.68 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Shakira Austin Under 17.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −103 → close −128 · CLV +5.4¢ · bet_clv:1110709 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 20 · 28.5 min · started

Kamilla Cardoso Under 2.5 ASTWIN +1.22ubet +122 → close +122 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:1110708 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-17T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.8% · actual 2 · 23.1 min · started

Data fetches · 20

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 15 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 17 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 21 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 23 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 102 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 7 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 82 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 109 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 514 ms

odds game timelinefailed 500 · 530 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.