WNBA · Finalupdated 07:43 UTC

Indiana Fever vs Toronto Tempo

at Toronto Tempo

IND expected to win by about 16 · both teams together expected to score about 187.5 points · odds to win: IND 1.08, TOR 9.41

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:32 UTC

IND 103 – TOR 85

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

2 picks checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: IND = Indiana Fever, TOR = Toronto Tempo.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. Rice · Under 4.5 assistsLostPosted at 2.18 · last price before start 1.70Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.18 · Our price was 12.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle 1.70, 27 min ago

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

N. Sabally · Over 5.5 reboundsRefundedPosted at 2.16 · last price before start 2.19Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Indiana Feverplaying TOR

SCaitlin Clark · 34 min expected

points 22.5 → 28 actual

SKelsey Mitchell · 33 min expected

points 25.5 → 33 actual

SAliyah Boston · 29 min expected

points 16.5 → 8 actual

SMakayla Timpson · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 4 actual

SLexie Hull · 17 min expected

points 5.5 → 5 actual

Sophie Cunningham · 19 min expected

points 5.5 → 5 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Billings (20 expected minutes) · Harris (9 min) · +3 more

Toronto Tempoplaying IND

SJulie Allemand · 30 min expected

assists 5.5 → 5 actual

SKiki Rice · 30 min expected

assists 4.5 → 5 actual

SLaura Juskaite · 29 min expected

points 11.5 → 22 actual

SIsabelle Harrison · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 16 actual

Nyara Sabally · 20 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Fagbenle (20 expected minutes) · Nurse (17 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 07:43 UTC

Who is out

Out Conde · earlier listed as may not play (changed Thu 18:15 UTC) · 14, 22 and 20 min in the last 3 games

Sabally · did not play last game

Hall · did not play last game

VanSlooten · did not play last game

Out Morrow · left knee · TOR

Out Sykes · left foot · TOR

Out Mabrey · right groin muscle · TOR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Russell, Johnson, Fagbenle, Sabally) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Timpson: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 15.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 more than usual

Cunningham: expected to play 19 minutes, averaged 24.2 in the last 5 games, about 5.2 fewer than usual

Allemand: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 24.0 in the last 5 games, about 6.0 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

IND had 31 days off before this game · TOR had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 13 of the 145 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Conde out (Thu 18:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sabally out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hall out · did not play

Flagged before the game: VanSlooten out · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 2 picks won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 6.1% higher than the last before the start · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

Kiki Rice · assists 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 28.9 min (30 expected)

Pick: Under 4.5 at 2.18 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Nyara Sabally · rebounds 5.5 → did not play, so no result

Pick: Over 5.5 at 2.16 → Refunded +0.00 per 1 staked

9 other players with a posted line

Laura Juskaite · points 11.5 → 22 · 10.5 above the line · played 30.1 min (29 expected) · no final price

Makayla Timpson · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 13.9 min (26 expected) · no final price

Aliyah Boston · points 16.5 → 8 · 8.5 below the line · played 27.9 min (29 expected) · no final price

Kelsey Mitchell · points 25.5 → 33 · 7.5 above the line · played 33.5 min (33 expected) · no final price

Caitlin Clark · points 22.5 → 28 · 5.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (34 expected) · no final price

Isabelle Harrison · points 14.5 → 16 · 1.5 above the line · played 31.8 min (28 expected) · no final price

Lexie Hull · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 13.3 min (17 expected) · no final price

Sophie Cunningham · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.8 min (19 expected) · no final price

Julie Allemand · assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs IND · last 3 games · IND leads · TOR record 0–3 · average score 90.3–105.7 · TOR has lost by 15.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

18 Sep · IND 103 at TOR 85TOR lost

18 Aug · IND 101 at TOR 95TOR lost

16 Jun · TOR 91 at IND 113TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

IND gives up90.7 points · 31.9 rebounds · 20.8 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.2% of shots · 34.0% from three-point range · 12.6 opponent turnovers

TOR gives up94.4 points · 34.5 rebounds · 22.6 assists · 9.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.8% of shots · 35.4% from three-point range · 12.1 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

IND gives up 90.7 points a game · 12th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.7 vs average

TOR gives up 94.4 points a game · 15th of 15 · league average 87.0+7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had IND expected to win by 12.5, expected total 188.5 (Thu 13:38 UTC) and later IND expected to win by 16, expected total 187.5 (Fri 23:32 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 2

Kiki Rice · U 4.5 assists+118value_edge_pct +16.94 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Nyara Sabally · O 5.5 rebounds+116value_edge_pct +11.83 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 2

Nyara Sabally Over 5.5 REBVOID +0.00ubet +116 → close +119 · CLV −0.6¢ · bet_clv:1170857 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.8% · actual 0

Kiki Rice Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +118 → close −142 · CLV +12.8¢ · bet_clv:1155138 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 C · p_hit 53.6% · conversion_unlucky · actual 5 · 28.9 min · started

Data fetches · 51

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 28 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 29 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 34 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 36 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 41 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 114 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 115 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 116 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 119 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 159 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 185 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 91 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 134 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 158 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 347 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 167 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 172 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 175 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 184 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 186 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 193 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 216 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 255 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 257 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 273 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 297 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 873 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.