WNBA · Finalupdated 08:39 UTC

New York Liberty vs Minnesota Lynx

at Minnesota Lynx

MIN expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 176.5 points · odds to win: NYL 2.85, MIN 1.45

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 23:32 UTC

NYL 93 – MIN 81

Final · 1 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 1 won, 0 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: NYL = New York Liberty, MIN = Minnesota Lynx.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

K. McBride · Over 2.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.85 · last price before start 1.88Won +0.85 per 1 staked

Posted at 1.85 · Our price was 0.9% lower than the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

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Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

New York Libertyplaying MIN

SBreanna Stewart · 30 min expected

points 19.5 → 24 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 15.5 → 17 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 29 min expected

points 9.5 → 3 actual

SPauline Astier · 23 min expected

points 6.5 → 14 actual

Han Xu · 13 min expected

points 5.5 → 0 actual

Rebekah Gardner · 11 min expected

points 4.5 → 2 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (19 expected minutes) · Johannes (11 min) · +3 more

Minnesota Lynxplaying NYL

SOlivia Miles · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 20 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 14 actual

SKayla McBride · 32 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 3 actual

SCourtney Williams · 31 min expected

points 12.5 → 12 actual

SNatasha Howard · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 11 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Juhasz (10 expected minutes) · Caldwell (10 min) · +3 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 08:39 UTC

Who is out

McDonald · did not play last game

Out Kosu · earlier listed as unlisted (changed Thu 22:00 UTC) · 1, 7 and 2 min in the last 3 games

Delaere · did not play last game

Bibby · did not play last game

King · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 9, 20 and 1 min in the last 3 games

Maley · did not play last game

Balogun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC)

Scott · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 2 and 4 min in the last 2 games

Carrera · did not play last game

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Fri 23:30 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

5 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. 2 players with a line are expected to play 15 minutes or less. For 4 players (Carrera, Fauthoux, Juhasz, Caldwell) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stewart: expected to play 30 minutes, averaged 39.9 in the last 5 games, about 9.9 fewer than usual

Fiebich: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 35.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.8 fewer than usual

Xu: expected to play only 13 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Gardner: expected to play only 11 minutes, yet bookmakers post a line

Howard: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.5 in the last 5 games, about 10.5 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.0 in the last 5 games, about 7.0 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.6 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 23 days off before this game · MIN had 33 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 17 of the 132 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: McDonald out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kosu out (Thu 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Delaere out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Bibby out · did not play

Flagged before the game: King out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Maley out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Balogun out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Scott out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

4 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 1 pick won1 won, 0 lost · +0.85 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.9% lower than the last before the start · checked Sun 23:52 UTC

Kayla McBride · rebounds 2.5 → 3 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.7 min (32 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.85 → Won +0.85 per 1 staked

11 other players with a posted line

Pauline Astier · points 6.5 → 14 · 7.5 above the line · played 27.3 min (23 expected) · no final price

Han Xu · points 5.5 → 0 · 5.5 below the line · played 7 min (13 expected) · no final price

Leonie Fiebich · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 27.8 min (29 expected) · no final price

Rebekah Gardner · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 12.2 min (11 expected) · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 18.5 → 14 · 4.5 below the line · played 32.3 min (33 expected) · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 29.9 min (29 expected) · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 19.5 → 24 · 4.5 above the line · played 38 min (30 expected) · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 15.5 → 17 · 1.5 above the line · played 29.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 11.5 → 11 · 0.5 below the line · played 21.9 min (28 expected) · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 12.5 → 12 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.8 min (31 expected) · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 19.5 → 20 · 0.5 above the line · played 34.2 min (34 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

MIN vs NYL · last 23 games · NYL leads · MIN record 11–12 · average score 79.8–83.4 · MIN has lost by 3.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

29 Sep · MIN 71 at NYL 87MIN lost

27 Sep · NYL 91 at MIN 75MIN lost

18 Sep · NYL 93 at MIN 81MIN lost

11 Jul · NYL 85 at MIN 90MIN won

3 Jul · MIN 86 at NYL 99MIN lost

What each defense gives up per game

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had MIN expected to win by 7, expected total 176.5 (Thu 12:04 UTC) and later MIN expected to win by 5.5, expected total 176.5 (Fri 23:32 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Kayla McBride · O 2.5 rebounds−118value_edge_pct +7.53 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Kayla McBride Over 2.5 REBWIN +0.85ubet −118 → close −114 · CLV −0.9¢ · bet_clv:1155830 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-18T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.2% · actual 3 · 33.7 min · started

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 41 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 53 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 55 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 108 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 167 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 178 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 92 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 99 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 270 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 228 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 509 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 272 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 333 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 336 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 353 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 398 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 399 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 402 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 420 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 434 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 434 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 436 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 438 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 440 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 455 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 456 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 457 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 474 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 477 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 481 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 974 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.