WNBA · Finalupdated 13:45 UTC

Portland Fire vs Golden State Valkyries

at Golden State Valkyries

GSV expected to win by about 12.5 · both teams together expected to score about 162.5 points · odds to win: POR 6.61, GSV 1.12

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Fri 00:05 UTC

POR 66 – GSV 82

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, GSV = Golden State Valkyries.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

4 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying GSV

SEmily Engstler · 30 min expected

rebounds 6.5 → 9 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 8 actual

SNyadiew Puoch · 27 min expected

points 7.5 → 11 actual

SCarla Leite · 25 min expected

points 15.5 → 12 actual

Bridget Carleton · Out · left ankle

points 13.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Harrison (18 expected minutes) · Buhner (17 min) · +6 more

Golden State Valkyriesplaying POR

12 players have no line from any bookmaker: Burton (29 expected minutes) · Hayes (28 min) · +10 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 13:45 UTC

Who is out

Zandalasini · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 25, 18 and 21 min in the last 3 games

G. Williams (GSV) · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 35, 37 and 34 min in the last 3 games

Salaun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Tue 00:00 UTC) · 3, 12 and 4 min in the last 3 games

Okonkwo · did not play last game

Harrison · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 6, 28 and 18 min in the last 3 games

Out Carleton · left ankle · POR

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Out Oblak · left knee · POR

GSV has not published an injury report for this game

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

For 2 players (Samuelson, Buhner) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 40 days off before this game · GSV also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 41 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Zandalasini out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: G. Williams (GSV) out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Salaun out (Tue 00:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okonkwo out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Harrison out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · played

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Mon 02:52 UTC

5 other players with a posted line

Nyadiew Puoch · points 7.5 → 11 · 3.5 above the line · played 31.1 min (27 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 13.5 → 8 · 5.5 below the line · played 23.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · rebounds 6.5 → 9 · 2.5 above the line · played 20 min (30 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 15.5 → 12 · 3.5 below the line · played 27.2 min (25 expected) · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 13.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSV vs POR · last 4 games · GSV leads · GSV record 3–1 · average score 86.3–75.5 · GSV has won by 10.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · GSV 82 at POR 90GSV lost

18 Sep · POR 66 at GSV 82GSV won

30 Aug · GSV 86 at POR 69GSV won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 13.5, expected total 161.5 (Thu 13:06 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 12.5, expected total 162.5 (Fri 00:05 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 33

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 14 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 13 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 17 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 17 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 19 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 19 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 98 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 104 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 106 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 102 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 81 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 145 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 146 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 149 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 161 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 163 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 164 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 169 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 244 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1014 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 841 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.