WNBA · Finalupdated 05:35 UTC

Chicago Sky vs Atlanta Dream

at Atlanta Dream

ATL expected to win by about 15 · both teams together expected to score about 177.5 points · odds to win: CHI 7.76, ATL 1.11

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 23:05 UTC

CHI 81 – ATL 106

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CHI = Chicago Sky, ATL = Atlanta Dream.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 9 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Chicago Skyplaying ATL

SGabriela Jaquez · 29 min expected

points 9.5 → 14 actual

SKamilla Cardoso · 26 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

SCourtney Vandersloot · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 10 actual

SSydney Taylor · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 2 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Banham (27 expected minutes) · Sheldon (25 min) · +3 more

Atlanta Dreamplaying CHI

SAllisha Gray · 32 min expected

points 18.5 → 17 actual

SRhyne Howard · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 14 actual

SAngel Reese · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 23 actual

SJordin Canada · 30 min expected

points 10.5 → 11 actual

SNaz Hillmon · 26 min expected

points 7.5 → 2 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Bonner (17 expected minutes) · Borlase (10 min) · +5 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 05:35 UTC

Who is out

Villa · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:15 UTC)

Out Stevens · earlier listed as available (changed Fri 21:15 UTC) · 21, 20 and 25 min in the last 3 games

Out Cloud · earlier listed as may not play (changed Sat 22:15 UTC) · 14, 21 and 16 min in the last 3 games

Coulibaly · new starter · 6 of 187 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Jaquez · new starter · 6 of 187 player lines not yet adjusted for the change

Out Jones · left leg · ATL

Out Carrington · left foot · CHI

Out Diggins · right knee · CHI

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sat 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Taylor, Vandersloot, Sheldon, Okot, Paopao) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Jaquez: expected to play 29 minutes, averaged 21.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.1 more than usual

Hillmon: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 31.4 in the last 5 games, about 5.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

CHI had 38 days off before this game · ATL also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 89 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Villa out (Sat 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Stevens out (Fri 21:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Cloud out (Sat 22:15 UTC) · did not play

Coulibaly new starter · started, 14.9 min

Jaquez new starter · started, 30.9 min

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 5 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Mon 23:52 UTC

9 other players with a posted line

Sydney Taylor · points 12.5 → 2 · 10.5 below the line · played 22.9 min (25 expected) · no final price

Naz Hillmon · points 7.5 → 2 · 5.5 below the line · played 19 min (26 expected) · no final price

Gabriela Jaquez · points 9.5 → 14 · 4.5 above the line · played 30.9 min (29 expected) · no final price

Angel Reese · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 28 min (30 expected) · no final price

Rhyne Howard · points 17.5 → 14 · 3.5 below the line · played 23.7 min (31 expected) · no final price

Courtney Vandersloot · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.9 min (25 expected) · no final price

Kamilla Cardoso · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 18.8 min (26 expected) · no final price

Allisha Gray · points 18.5 → 17 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.1 min (32 expected) · no final price

Jordin Canada · points 10.5 → 11 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.7 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

ATL vs CHI · last 18 games · ATL leads · ATL record 13–5 · average score 84.8–76.1 · ATL has won by 8.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

19 Sep · CHI 81 at ATL 106ATL won

19 Jul · CHI 91 at ATL 93ATL won

9 Jun · ATL 82 at CHI 75ATL won

What each defense gives up per game

CHI gives up90.7 points · 37.1 rebounds · 20.7 assists · 8.2 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.9% of shots · 33.8% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

CHI gives up 90.7 points a game · 11th of 15 · league average 87.0+3.6 vs average

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had ATL expected to win by 12.5, expected total 177.5 (Sat 00:39 UTC) and later ATL expected to win by 15, expected total 177.5 (Sat 23:05 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 45

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 53 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 54 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 62 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 62 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 69 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 68 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 161 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 171 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 184 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 189 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 331 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 395 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 240 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 297 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 298 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 330 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 341 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 356 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 360 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 383 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 907 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.