WNBA · Finalupdated 04:36 UTC

Phoenix Mercury vs Dallas Wings

at Dallas Wings

No game odds posted yet

PHO 82 – DAL 87

Final · 1 of 3 picks won

3 picks checked: 1 won, 2 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: PHO = Phoenix Mercury, DAL = Dallas Wings.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

M. Siegrist · Over 9.5 pointsLostPosted at 2.17 · last price before start 1.93Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.17 · Our price was 5.8% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 1.8 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

A. Ogunbowale · Over 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 1.98 · last price before start 1.98Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

P. Bueckers · Over 3.5 reboundsWonPosted at 1.76 · last price before start 1.76Won +0.76 per 1 staked

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

9 players checked · 8 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 10 players has performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Phoenix Mercuryplaying DAL

SAlyssa Thomas · 31 min expected

points 15.5 → 19 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 7 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 23 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

SNatasha Mack · 22 min expected

points 9.5 → 16 actual

SKahleah Copper · Out · right groin

points 18.5 → did not play, so no result

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Ciezki (22 expected minutes) · Ayayi (16 min) · +5 more

Dallas Wingsplaying PHO

SArike Ogunbowale · 25 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 2 actual

SJessica Shepard · 25 min expected

points 14.5 → 10 actual

SPaige Bueckers · 25 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 4 actual

SMaddy Siegrist · 21 min expected

points 9.5 → 3 actual

SAwak Kuier · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Sims (20 expected minutes) · James (18 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 04:36 UTC

Who is out

Williams · did not play last game

Jones · did not play last game

Poffenbarger · did not play last game

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Out Copper · right groin · PHO

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

1 player is expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Linskens, Poffenbarger, Shepard, Bueckers, Ogunbowale) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Kuier: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 28.2 in the last 5 games, about 8.2 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

PHO had 38 days off before this game · DAL had 30 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 16 of the 120 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Williams out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jones out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Poffenbarger out · did not play

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 1 of 3 picks won1 won, 2 lost · −1.24 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.9% higher than the last before the start · checked Mon 17:52 UTC

Maddy Siegrist · points 9.5 → 3 · 6.5 below the line · played 11.3 min (21 expected)

Pick: Over 9.5 at 2.17 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

Arike Ogunbowale · rebounds 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 36.7 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 1.98 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

Paige Bueckers · rebounds 3.5 → 4 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.5 min (25 expected)

Pick: Over 3.5 at 1.76 → Won +0.76 per 1 staked

7 other players with a posted line

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 16 · 6.5 above the line · played 29 min (22 expected) · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 24.6 min (23 expected) · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 14.5 → 10 · 4.5 below the line · played 26.9 min (25 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 15.5 → 19 · 3.5 above the line · played 30.4 min (31 expected) · no final price

Noemie Brochant · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 32.5 min (26 expected) · no final price

Awak Kuier · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 27.4 min (20 expected) · no final price

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

DAL vs PHO · last 19 games · DAL leads · DAL record 11–8 · average score 86.5–85.5 · DAL has won by 0.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Sep · DAL 86 at PHO 87DAL lost

19 Sep · PHO 82 at DAL 87DAL won

11 Jun · PHO 70 at DAL 85DAL won

11 Sep · PHO 76 at DAL 97DAL won

What each defense gives up per game

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 3

Arike Ogunbowale · O 2.5 rebounds−102value_edge_pct +9.51 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Maddy Siegrist · O 9.5 points+117value_edge_pct +8.34 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Paige Bueckers · O 3.5 rebounds−132value_edge_pct +3.41 · kelly 1.15u · price_check unchecked · rank 3

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 3

Maddy Siegrist Over 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +117 → close −108 · CLV +5.8¢ · bet_clv:1252554 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · conversion_unlucky · actual 3 · 11.3 min · bench

Paige Bueckers Over 3.5 REBWIN +0.76ubet −132 → close −132 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:1252555 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.8% · actual 4 · 31.5 min · started

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −102 → close −102 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:1252553 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-19T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 55.3% · unexplained · actual 2 · 36.7 min · started

Data fetches · 48

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 64 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 77 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 79 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 86 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 120 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 164 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 177 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 190 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 201 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 222 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 106 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 107 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 113 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 118 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 255 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 328 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 172 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 190 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 194 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 192 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 194 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 197 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 222 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 225 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 226 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 243 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 394 ms

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The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.