WNBA · Finalupdated 17:29 UTC

Minnesota Lynx vs Connecticut Sun

at Connecticut Sun

MIN expected to win by about 19 · both teams together expected to score about 168 points · odds to win: MIN 1.04, CON 14.94

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 17:04 UTC

MIN 101 – CON 89

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIN = Minnesota Lynx, CON = Connecticut Sun.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

8 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 1 shows a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Minnesota Lynxplaying CON

SOlivia Miles · 34 min expected

points 19.5 → 21 actual

SNapheesa Collier · 33 min expected

points 18.5 → 23 actual

SKayla McBride · 32 min expected

points 17.5 → 14 actual

SCourtney Williams · 31 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

SNatasha Howard · 28 min expected

points 11.5 → 18 actual

4 players have no line from any bookmaker: Juhasz (10 expected minutes) · Caldwell (10 min) · +2 more

Connecticut Sunplaying MIN

SAaliyah Edwards · 26 min expected

points 10.5 → 12 actual

SLeila Lacan · 23 min expected

points 9.5 → 15 actual

SDiamond Miller · 22 min expected

points 10.5 → 15 actual

SSaniya Rivers · 28 min expected · Out · left ankle · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 0 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Beers (24 expected minutes) · Angloma (22 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 17:29 UTC

Who is out

Out Nelson-Ododa · earlier listed as available (changed Sat 20:45 UTC) · 16, 10 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Out Rivers · earlier listed as available (changed Sun 18:15 UTC) · 5, 34 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Out Kosu · right foot · MIN

Out Griner · left knee · CON

Out Buenavida · coach's decision · MIN

Out Burke · right shoulder · CON

Out Marshall · coach's decision · CON

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 17:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 4 players (Juhasz, Caldwell, Miller, Angloma) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Howard: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 17.7 in the last 5 games, about 10.3 more than usual

Miles: expected to play 34 minutes, averaged 27.8 in the last 5 games, about 6.2 more than usual

Collier: expected to play 33 minutes, averaged 27.3 in the last 5 games, about 5.7 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

MIN had 33 days off before this game · CON had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 15 of the 64 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nelson-Ododa out (Sat 20:45 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Rivers out (Sun 18:15 UTC) · played

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Tue 17:52 UTC

9 other players with a posted line

Saniya Rivers · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 5 min (28 expected) · no final price

Leila Lacan · points 9.5 → 15 · 5.5 above the line · played 28.8 min (23 expected) · no final price

Natasha Howard · points 11.5 → 18 · 6.5 above the line · played 21 min (28 expected) · no final price

Diamond Miller · points 10.5 → 15 · 4.5 above the line · played 21.6 min (22 expected) · no final price

Napheesa Collier · points 18.5 → 23 · 4.5 above the line · played 34 min (33 expected) · no final price

Kayla McBride · points 17.5 → 14 · 3.5 below the line · played 33.3 min (32 expected) · no final price

Aaliyah Edwards · points 10.5 → 12 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.7 min (26 expected) · no final price

Courtney Williams · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.3 min (31 expected) · no final price

Olivia Miles · points 19.5 → 21 · 1.5 above the line · played 30.3 min (34 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

CON vs MIN · last 24 games · CON leads · CON record 13–11 · average score 81.5–81.6 · CON has lost by 0.1 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · MIN 101 at CON 89CON lost

8 Jul · MIN 86 at CON 80CON lost

6 Jul · CON 90 at MIN 89CON won

30 Aug · MIN 94 at CON 70CON lost

What each defense gives up per game

MIN gives up83.9 points · 33.4 rebounds · 20.5 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 43.7% of shots · 33.3% from three-point range · 14.5 opponent turnovers

CON gives up87.7 points · 33.9 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.3% of shots · 34.9% from three-point range · 13.5 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIN gives up 83.9 points a game · 4th of 15 · league average 87.0−3.1 vs average

CON gives up 87.7 points a game · 9th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 45

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 9 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 17 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 19 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 20 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 89 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 96 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 97 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 108 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 113 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 155 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 86 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 28 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 31 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 110 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 114 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 136 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 172 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 173 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 174 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 180 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 212 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 224 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.