WNBA · Finalupdated 04:37 UTC

Portland Fire vs Los Angeles Sparks

at Los Angeles Sparks

LAS expected to win by about 2 · both teams together expected to score about 177 points · odds to win: POR 2.13, LAS 1.75

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sun 23:07 UTC

POR 84 – LAS 105

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Fire, LAS = Los Angeles Sparks.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

7 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Fireplaying LAS

SCarla Leite · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 23 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 28 min expected

points 14.5 → 11 actual

SEmily Engstler · 21 min expected

points 11.5 → 10 actual

Bridget Carleton · Out · left ankle

points 14.5 → did not play, so no result

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Samuelson (24 expected minutes) · Buhner (22 min) · +6 more

Los Angeles Sparksplaying POR

SNneka Ogwumike · 31 min expected

points 17.5 → 20 actual

SRae Burrell · 28 min expected

points 16.5 → 20 actual

SErica Wheeler · 26 min expected

points 8.5 → 9 actual

SAriel Atkins · 20 min expected

points 7.5 → 14 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Makani (30 expected minutes) · Park (20 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 04:37 UTC

Who is out

Out Nye · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 14, 12 and 0 min in the last 3 games

Out Brink · earlier listed as unlikely to play (changed Sun 22:00 UTC) · 24, 28 and 26 min in the last 3 games

Hamby · earlier listed as likely to play, now available (changed Fri 01:00 UTC) · 30, 21 and 24 min in the last 3 games

Out Winterburn · earlier listed as may not play (changed Wed 01:15 UTC) · 24, 22 and 19 min in the last 3 games

Out Carleton · left ankle · POR

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Out Oblak · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Sun 23:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 5 players (Harrison, Okonkwo, Atkins, Park, Morgan) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Engstler: expected to play 21 minutes, averaged 27.3 in the last 5 games, about 6.3 fewer than usual

Wheeler: expected to play 26 minutes, averaged 19.1 in the last 5 games, about 6.9 more than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

POR had 40 days off before this game · LAS had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 76 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Nye out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Brink out (Sun 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Hamby out (Fri 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Winterburn out (Wed 01:15 UTC) · did not play

1 expected player did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Tue 23:52 UTC

8 other players with a posted line

Ariel Atkins · points 7.5 → 14 · 6.5 above the line · played 20.5 min (20 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 16.5 → 23 · 6.5 above the line · played 25.7 min (28 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 14.5 → 11 · 3.5 below the line · played 25.2 min (28 expected) · no final price

Rae Burrell · points 16.5 → 20 · 3.5 above the line · played 24.6 min (28 expected) · no final price

Nneka Ogwumike · points 17.5 → 20 · 2.5 above the line · played 27 min (31 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 11.5 → 10 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.7 min (21 expected) · no final price

Erica Wheeler · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.2 min (26 expected) · no final price

Bridget Carleton · points 14.5 → did not play, so no result · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

LAS vs POR · last 3 games · LAS leads · LAS record 3–0 · average score 100.0–85.7 · LAS has won by 14.3 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

20 Sep · POR 84 at LAS 105LAS won

2 Aug · LAS 106 at POR 101LAS won

7 Jun · POR 72 at LAS 89LAS won

What each defense gives up per game

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

LAS gives up91.3 points · 35.5 rebounds · 22.2 assists · 8.9 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 47.2% of shots · 33.6% from three-point range · 13.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

LAS gives up 91.3 points a game · 14th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 42

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 50 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 51 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 52 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 55 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 57 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 124 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 132 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 138 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 140 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 140 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 142 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 230 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 233 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 344 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 259 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 498 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 367 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 379 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 399 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 404 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 411 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 418 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 422 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 442 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 460 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 461 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 462 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 480 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.