WNBA · Finalupdated 10:56 UTC

Atlanta Dream vs New York Liberty

at New York Liberty

No game odds posted yet

ATL 95 – NYL 84

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: ATL = Atlanta Dream, NYL = New York Liberty.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

L. Fiebich · Over 3.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.28 · last price before start 2.22Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.28 · Our price was 1.2% higher than the last price before the start (good: a higher price pays more per 1 staked).

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

5 players checked · 2 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 5 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Atlanta Dreamplaying NYL

12 players have no line from any bookmaker: Gray (30 expected minutes) · Reese (30 min) · +10 more

New York Libertyplaying ATL

SBreanna Stewart · 32 min expected

points 20.5 → 27 actual

SSabrina Ionescu · 30 min expected

points 16.5 → 15 actual

SJonquel Jones · 29 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SLeonie Fiebich · 28 min expected

rebounds 3.5 → 2 actual

SPauline Astier · 24 min expected

points 7.5 → 15 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Allen (17 expected minutes) · Johannes (13 min) · +5 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 10:56 UTC

Who is out

Maley · did not play last game

Balogun · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 22:00 UTC)

Scott · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 21:00 UTC) · 2 and 4 min in the last 2 games

Fauthoux · did not play last game

Carrera · did not play last game

Nivar · did not play last game

Okot · did not play last game

Villa · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 20:15 UTC)

Walker-Kimbrough · did not play last game

Kone · did not play last game

Out B. Jones (ATL) · left leg

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Tue 00:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

2 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Reese, Canada, Howard, Gray, Carrera, Fauthoux) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Stewart: expected to play 32 minutes, averaged 39.9 in the last 5 games, about 7.9 fewer than usual

Fiebich: expected to play 28 minutes, averaged 35.8 in the last 5 games, about 7.8 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

NYL had 24 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 7 of the 62 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Maley out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Balogun out (Sat 22:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Scott out (Sat 21:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Fauthoux out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Carrera out · did not play

Flagged before the game: B. Jones (ATL) out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Nivar out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Okot out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Villa out (Sat 20:15 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Walker-Kimbrough out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Kone out · did not play

5 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 1 of 2 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 1.2% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 00:52 UTC

Leonie Fiebich · rebounds 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 31.7 min (28 expected)

Pick: Over 3.5 at 2.28 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: the shots did not fall

4 other players with a posted line

Pauline Astier · points 7.5 → 15 · 7.5 above the line · played 29.5 min (24 expected) · no final price

Breanna Stewart · points 20.5 → 27 · 6.5 above the line · played 37 min (32 expected) · no final price

Jonquel Jones · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 34.8 min (29 expected) · no final price

Sabrina Ionescu · points 16.5 → 15 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.8 min (30 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

NYL vs ATL · last 24 games · NYL leads · NYL record 14–10 · average score 85.3–81.8 · NYL has won by 3.5 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

9 Oct · ATL 85 at NYL 83NYL lost

7 Oct · NYL 98 at ATL 101NYL lost

4 Oct · NYL 82 at ATL 92NYL lost

23 Sep · ATL 83 at NYL 65NYL lost

21 Sep · ATL 95 at NYL 84NYL lost

11 Jun · NYL 104 at ATL 90NYL won

What each defense gives up per game

ATL gives up82.7 points · 32.1 rebounds · 18.4 assists · 8.1 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 45.5% of shots · 34.1% from three-point range · 15.2 opponent turnovers

NYL gives up86.5 points · 31.4 rebounds · 21.3 assists · 9.0 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.6% of shots · 34.6% from three-point range · 10.8 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

ATL gives up 82.7 points a game · 2nd of 15 · league average 87.0−4.3 vs average

NYL gives up 86.5 points a game · 7th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Leonie Fiebich · O 3.5 rebounds+128value_edge_pct +10.16 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +128 → close +122 · CLV +1.2¢ · bet_clv:1421008 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.3% · conversion_unlucky · actual 2 · 31.7 min · started

Data fetches · 33

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 54 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 65 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 68 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 80 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 80 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 84 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 85 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 121 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 348 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 351 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 351 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 351 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 369 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 373 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 96 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 149 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 248 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 249 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 249 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 262 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 644 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.