WNBA · Finalupdated 05:34 UTC

Dallas Wings vs Phoenix Mercury

at Phoenix Mercury

DAL expected to win by about 6 · both teams together expected to score about 174.5 points · odds to win: DAL 1.43, PHO 2.92

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 02:06 UTC

DAL 86 – PHO 87

Final · 0 of 1 pick won

1 pick checked: 0 won, 1 lost.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: DAL = Dallas Wings, PHO = Phoenix Mercury.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

A. Ogunbowale · Over 2.5 reboundsLostPosted at 2.36 · last price before start 2.36Lost −1.00 per 1 staked

Posted at 2.36 · Our price was the same as the last price before the start.

Pinnacle, the reference bookmaker, does not offer this line

No price history for this line.

Re-checked 1 h before the start not re-checked

Legacy CORE signal · publication timing not verified. Recorded model stake: 2 units. The broader CORE flat-1u benchmark is separate; it is not a recommended1u wager or the exact published cohort’s ROI.

Investigate this prop →

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

11 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 1 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 12 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Dallas Wingsplaying PHO

SArike Ogunbowale · 33 min expected

rebounds 2.5 → 1 actual

SPaige Bueckers · 31 min expected

points 19.5 → 30 actual

SJessica Shepard · 28 min expected

points 13.5 → 17 actual

SAwak Kuier · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 8 actual

SMaddy Siegrist · 16 min expected

points 7.5 → 9 actual

Aziaha James · 17 min expected

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Alysha Clark · 15 min expected · Out · face · listed out, then played

points 4.5 → 4 actual

5 players have no line from any bookmaker: Yueru (12 expected minutes) · Laksa (10 min) · +3 more

Phoenix Mercuryplaying DAL

SAlyssa Thomas · 30 min expected

points 14.5 → 15 actual

SNoemie Brochant · 30 min expected

points 8.5 → 2 actual

SKahleah Copper · 27 min expected

points 18.5 → 31 actual

SNatasha Mack · 27 min expected

points 9.5 → 12 actual

SSami Whitcomb · 25 min expected

points 7.5 → 8 actual

6 players have no line from any bookmaker: Ciezki (15 expected minutes) · Ayayi (12 min) · +4 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 05:34 UTC

Who is out

Ayayi · did not play last game

Clark · earlier listed as out, now available (changed Sat 23:30 UTC) · 3, 19 and 10 min in the last 3 games

Out Smith · left leg · DAL

Out Plum · left lower leg · PHO

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

For 4 players (Williams, Jones, Mack, Copper) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

DAL had 30 days off before this game · PHO had 38 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 10 of the 114 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Ayayi out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Clark out (Sat 23:30 UTC) · played

3 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

Final · 0 of 1 pick won0 won, 1 lost · −1.00 if you had staked 1 on each · our prices on average 0.0% higher than the last before the start · checked Thu 02:52 UTC

Arike Ogunbowale · rebounds 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 30.7 min (33 expected)

Pick: Over 2.5 at 2.36 → Lost −1.00 per 1 staked · our note: no single cause

11 other players with a posted line

Noemie Brochant · points 8.5 → 2 · 6.5 below the line · played 22.3 min (30 expected) · Caesars odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Kahleah Copper · points 18.5 → 31 · 12.5 above the line · played 33.8 min (27 expected) · no final price

Paige Bueckers · points 19.5 → 30 · 10.5 above the line · played 33.2 min (31 expected) · no final price

Aziaha James · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 7.7 min (17 expected) · no final price

Natasha Mack · points 9.5 → 12 · 2.5 above the line · played 21.7 min (27 expected) · no final price

Jessica Shepard · points 13.5 → 17 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.2 min (28 expected) · no final price

Maddy Siegrist · points 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 19.1 min (16 expected) · no final price

Alysha Clark · points 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 3.4 min (15 expected) · no final price

Sami Whitcomb · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.2 min (25 expected) · no final price

Awak Kuier · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.3 min (25 expected) · no final price

Alyssa Thomas · points 14.5 → 15 · 0.5 above the line · played 32.1 min (30 expected) · Pinnacle odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.84

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

PHO vs DAL · last 19 games · DAL leads · PHO record 8–11 · average score 85.5–86.5 · PHO has lost by 0.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Sep · DAL 86 at PHO 87PHO won

19 Sep · PHO 82 at DAL 87PHO lost

11 Jun · PHO 70 at DAL 85PHO lost

What each defense gives up per game

DAL gives up85.8 points · 33.4 rebounds · 19.9 assists · 8.4 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 44.7% of shots · 33.9% from three-point range · 11.6 opponent turnovers

PHO gives up87.6 points · 34.0 rebounds · 21.5 assists · 9.7 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 36.1% from three-point range · 12.9 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

DAL gives up 85.8 points a game · 5th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

PHO gives up 87.6 points a game · 8th of 15 · league average 87.0about league average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 1

Arike Ogunbowale · O 2.5 rebounds+136value_edge_pct +10.90 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 1

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 1

Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +136 → close +136 · CLV +0.0¢ · bet_clv:1446755 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-09-21T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.0% · unexplained · actual 1 · 30.7 min · started

Data fetches · 54

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 22 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 26 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 286 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 284 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 286 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 288 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 288 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 309 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 322 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 137 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 139 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 145 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 160 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 191 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 262 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 267 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 284 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 286 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 286 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 298 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 623 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 319 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 321 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 327 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 341 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 343 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 344 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 359 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 362 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 398 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 401 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 542 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 730 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.