WNBA · Finalupdated 11:35 UTC

Golden State Valkyries vs Portland Fire

at Portland Fire

GSV expected to win by about 14 · both teams together expected to score about 158 points · odds to win: GSV 1.12, POR 6.92

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Wed 02:01 UTC

GSV 82 – POR 90

Final

No verified saved picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSV = Golden State Valkyries, POR = Portland Fire.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Publication timing not verified

Saved legacy CORE rows, if available, have not been verified as pre-tip publications. They are not backfilled into the published record, and a missing row is not a pass.

No new predictions are being generated here after tip. Saved calls and captured research are not current offers or injury confirmations.

This game’s current price coverage could not be verified. An empty price panel does not mean bookmakers have no lines.

Price comparison only: live snapshot enrichment and model inference were not requested by this game view. Source injuries, lineups and historical statistics are separate reads.

Evaluation coverage and timestamps

Status is slate-wide, observed only since the service started. It does not identify this game’s individual evaluation result.

Slate games processed: 0 / 0
Latest publication attempt: unknown
Status observed since: 29 Oct, 12:14 UTC

No verified attempt timestamp was returned. This is unknown—not a successful empty evaluation.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

10 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 10 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Valkyriesplaying POR

SVeronica Burton · 27 min expected

points 11.5 → 13 actual

SKayla Thornton · 25 min expected

points 8.5 → 11 actual

SKiah Stokes · 25 min expected

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

SCecilia Zandalasini · 20 min expected

points 9.5 → 7 actual

SGabby Williams · 20 min expected

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Janelle Salaun · 15 min expected

points 12.5 → 11 actual

7 players have no line from any bookmaker: Charles (20 expected minutes) · Chen (20 min) · +5 more

Portland Fireplaying GSV

SCarla Leite · 27 min expected

points 14.5 → 18 actual

SMegan DiLeo · 25 min expected

points 12.5 → 14 actual

SEmily Engstler · 23 min expected

points 9.5 → 11 actual

SBridget Carleton · 20 min expected

points 11.5 → 26 actual

8 players have no line from any bookmaker: Buhner (24 expected minutes) · Harrison (19 min) · +6 more

Saved gameplay research · not CORE picks

What did the models record?

Read frozen projections, minutes and lineup assumptions for this exact game. These are uncalibrated research—not official recommendations or evidence that the CORE selector ran.

Only original pre-tip captures are read. Nothing is newly forecast after tip; old availability assumptions are not current injury news.

Saved reads only · no new captures, current snapshots, odds requests or paid AI runs.

What could go wrong

updated 11:35 UTC

Who is out

Out Puoch · earlier listed as available (changed Wed 01:00 UTC) · 26, 31 and 29 min in the last 3 games

Gueye · did not play last game

Prechtel · did not play last game

Jocyte · did not play last game

Sowah · did not play last game

Out Winterburn · lumbar spine · POR

Out Feagin · left knee · POR

Out Oblak · left knee · POR

Lineups

Starting lineup confirmed (Wed 02:00 UTC) · RotoWire, a lineup news service, as of game start

Playing time

3 players are expected to play at least 5 minutes more or fewer than in the last 5 games. For 6 players (Williams, Zandalasini, Charles, Chen, Samuelson, Harrison) we have no real minutes estimate, only a default.

Thornton: expected to play 25 minutes, averaged 13.6 in the last 5 games, about 11.4 more than usual

Salaun: expected to play 15 minutes, averaged 6.6 in the last 5 games, about 8.4 more than usual

Carleton: expected to play 20 minutes, averaged 32.4 in the last 5 games, about 12.4 fewer than usual

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

GSV also played the day before this game · POR had 40 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 11 of the 107 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

One team is expected to win by 10 or more. In past games like this, players went over their lines 65.9% of the time; this does not mean the opposite is a good bet.

Looking back

Flagged before the game: Puoch out (Wed 01:00 UTC) · did not play

Flagged before the game: Gueye out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Prechtel out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Jocyte out · did not play

Flagged before the game: Sowah out · did not play

2 expected players did not play

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalNo verified saved CORE picks were returned; missing records do not prove no picks qualified. · checked Fri 02:52 UTC

10 other players with a posted line

Bridget Carleton · points 11.5 → 26 · 14.5 above the line · played 40.1 min (20 expected) · no final price

Kayla Thornton · points 8.5 → 11 · 2.5 above the line · played 26.3 min (25 expected) · no final price

Kiah Stokes · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.1 min (25 expected) · no final price

Cecilia Zandalasini · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 18.1 min (20 expected) · no final price

Carla Leite · points 14.5 → 18 · 3.5 above the line · played 28.9 min (27 expected) · no final price

Gabby Williams · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 40.7 min (20 expected) · no final price

Emily Engstler · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.7 min (23 expected) · no final price

Veronica Burton · points 11.5 → 13 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.5 min (27 expected) · no final price

Janelle Salaun · points 12.5 → 11 · 1.5 below the line · played 20.1 min (15 expected) · no final price

Megan DiLeo · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 33.6 min (25 expected) · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs GSV · last 4 games · GSV leads · POR record 1–3 · average score 75.5–86.3 · POR has lost by 10.7 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

22 Sep · GSV 82 at POR 90POR won

18 Sep · POR 66 at GSV 82POR lost

30 Aug · GSV 86 at POR 69POR lost

2 Jun · POR 77 at GSV 95POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSV gives up75.3 points · 32.8 rebounds · 17.8 assists · 7.8 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 41.0% of shots · 32.4% from three-point range · 13.3 opponent turnovers

POR gives up91.0 points · 34.0 rebounds · 22.9 assists · 9.3 three-pointers scored against them · opponents make 46.4% of shots · 35.0% from three-point range · 13.6 opponent turnovers

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSV gives up 75.3 points a game · 1st of 15 · league average 87.0−11.7 vs average

POR gives up 91.0 points a game · 13th of 15 · league average 87.0+4.0 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSV expected to win by 14, expected total 157.5 (Tue 04:37 UTC) and later GSV expected to win by 14, expected total 158 (Wed 02:01 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 48

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 51 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 56 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 74 ms

sds injuries/date/{date}ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 82 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 116 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 148 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 175 ms

grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 182 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 197 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 212 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

grading verdict/board (price-only)ok 200 · 286 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 456 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 235 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 304 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 307 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 309 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 311 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 311 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 317 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 318 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 323 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 321 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 339 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 332 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 339 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 339 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 369 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 361 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 363 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 388 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 419 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1183 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.